The Quick Wednesday-Morning Campaign-Trail Roundup
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Morning Jolt October 22, 2014 The Quick Wednesday-Morning Campaign-Trail Roundup That nutty liberal group that ran an ad blaming Republicans for the Ebola outbreak is now running an ad claiming Joni Ernst is responsible. The group’s release boasts, with perverse pride, “In launching this effort, we are the first major progressive group to directly blame GOP budget cuts for the nearly 4,500 deaths caused by the Ebola crisis.” Conservative War Chest is unveiling hard-hitting ad comparing the foreign-policy crises of today to the crises of the 1970s, complete with an image of Ground Zero after 9/11 — “Here’s what every American needs to know about why liberals can’t protect them or their children . . .” The group is running versions of the ad in North Carolina and, curiously, Minnesota . . . . . . “Freedom Partners Action Fund, a free-market Super PAC, is launching a $6.5 million ad campaign designed to deliver a clear closing argument that a vote for the Democratic candidate in several states is a vote for President Obama’s failed agenda. The ads will air in Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, and online in New Hampshire”. . .
. . . The new national AP poll is about as bad as it gets for Democrats . . . . . . Kay Hagan didn’t feel the need to show up to last night’s debate . . . . . . Over on NRO’s home page, I take a final look at Oregon and how the GOP needs the first lady’s scandals to have an impact that the failure of the Cover Oregon web site didn’t. The Easy Way for Republicans to Count to Six The Republicans need to pick up six Senate seats to control the chamber. Let’s count to six. The GOP wins Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. One, two, three. I know there are some folks spinning the chances of Republican Mike Rounds losing in South Dakota, but he has yet to trail a poll. Four: In Arkansas, the latest poll puts Republican Tom Cotton up by 8 points. Pryor has not led a poll this month. Five: In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan has not trailed in any poll since early August. Six: In Colorado, Cory Gardner led nine of the last ten polls. Tuesday the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released a survey putting Gardner up by 3 points, Udall only leading women by 4 points, and noting that “Udall continues to struggle with his approval numbers, as only 37% of voters think he's doing a good job to 52% who disapprove.” Let’s add another. Seven: In Iowa, Joni Ernst led five of the last six polls, and the sixth is a tie. We’ll get to some of the other Republican pickup opportunities in a moment, but let’s take a look at the big three seats they’re defending. Kentucky: Democrats are excited by a Survey USA poll — conducted over a weekend — putting McConnell up by just one point. But the last time Survey USA polled Kentucky, at the beginning of the month, Alison Lundergan Grimes led by 2, so this survey represents movement in the GOP direction. That poll was the only one in the past 15 surveys to show Grimes ahead. Kansas: Democrats were so, so, so excited about this race, and admittedly, Republican senator Pat Roberts is not out of the woods yet. But he’s led three of the last four polls, and the one that had him trailing was PPP. That survey noted, “By a 52/35 margin, voters in the state would rather Republicans had control of the Senate than Democrats. And among those who are undecided there's a 48/25 preference for a GOP controlled Senate.” Georgia: Keep in mind, if no one gets 50 percent, this one goes to a runoff. You know how many times a poll has shown Democrat Michelle Nunn with 50 percent? Try none. (For what it’s worth, Republican David Perdue hit that level of support in a few polls.) In 2008, Democrats cheered that their Senate candidate, Jim Martin, kept Saxby Chambliss from hitting 50 percent and forced a runoff. But then, in the December 2 election, without Obama on the ticket, Chambliss won big -- 57 percent to 42 percent. This year’s runoff election in Georgia would be held January 6, 2015! How confident should Democrats be that they could sustain enthusiasm for several months? None of the Democrats’ pickup opportunities look like sure things right now. Could Republicans lose one of those seats? Yes. Could they lose two? Conceivably, but unlikely. So let’s imagine the bad scenario, where Republicans lose Kansas, and Georgia, and subtract two. We’ve gone from seven to five. Back to the Republicans’ pickup opportunities. Louisiana: This one is almost certain to go to a runoff. Mary Landrieu is polling exceptionally badly for an incumbent in the first round — 36 percent, 41 percent, 36 percent — and Republican Bill Cassidy is winning all the runoff polling. Add a Louisiana win, and Republicans go from five to six -- controlling the Senate again. Then there’s North Carolina, where Kay Hagan keeps leading by a small margin. Maybe that $6 million in television ads from the NRSC does the trick and Tillis wins. Then there’s New Hampshire, where Jeanne Shaheen’s hanging on, leading by three here and there, trailing by one over there. Scott Brown traditionally out-hustles his opponents, and maybe he gets a bit of momentum in these final weeks. So in the worst case scenario, losing Georgia and Kansas, and not winning North Carolina or New Hampshire, the GOP still picks up Senate control by winning the runoff in Louisiana. Did Obamacare Force Millions of Americans onto Medicaid? Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Dr. Jeffrey A. Singer of Phoenix, Arizona describes his patients telling him that they were forced off their private insurance and into Medicaid when they signed on to Healthcare.gov last year. He cites a Boston University/Harvard Medical School study contending that up to 80 percent of the people added to the Medicaid rolls in the past year previously had private insurance. Singer points out that these patients may not like what they’re getting, as only 45 percent of doctors accept new Medicaid patients, down from 55 percent five years ago. Fewer doctors and a lot more patients means longer wait times for appointments. We know that the Medicaid expansion in Obamacare/the Affordable Care Act added about 3 million people to the rolls. If the 80 percent figure is true, that means that 2.4 million people left private insurance, and these were low-income individuals. Medicaid covers pregnant women, individuals with disabilities, children of low-income households, some of the poorest elderly, and parents meeting specific income thresholds, generally those at or below the federal poverty level — $958 gross income per month for one person, or $1,963 gross income per month for a family of four. (Children above the threshold for Medicaid can qualify for a separate program, the Children’s Health Insurance Program; North Dakota’s CHIP program covers children up to 160 percent of the poverty level, and New York’s goes up to 400 percent of the poverty level.) States are allowed to impose a usually small copayment on Medicaid recipients for non-emergency care, also determined by income level. If this is true — if the percentage is anywhere near 80 percent, or even 50 percent -- shouldn’t we be seeing a broad uprising against Obamacare? You would think that more than a million people being forced to accept insurance coverage with fewer doctors and longer wait times would generate loud objections. Or is it that these new Medicaid recipients haven’t yet experienced the limitations of their new coverage? Or are these people genuinely happier with the more limited options, because it’s “free” and less of a burden than the old coverage they had to pay for? Conservatives probably don’t grapple enough with the appeal of progressive policies. Sure, we may value having the most choices, and the freedom to make our own decisions, and accept the responsibilities that go with that freedom. (Of course, this assumes we have freedom. A lot of people’s “choice” in health-insurance plans is limited by what insurer their employer uses.) A significant portion of the population would take one look at their monthly premium, think about all the ways they would prefer to spend that money, and eagerly choose the “free” care, dismissing the concerns about a more limited network of doctors. Singer concludes that “Obamacare has shifted — and will continue to shift — people into substandard and often-delayed care, all in the name of increasing health care ‘coverage.’” Indeed, but some of those people will happily accept that offer and remain oblivious to the Faustian bargain until it’s too late. Then of course, there are the people who never pay attention to anything: “A new survey of people without health insurance found that 89 percent of the people surveyed were unaware that open enrollment begins in November, or any time soon.” The Ebola Mass Hysteria that Never Actually Became ‘Mass’ Isn’t it kind of amazing how concepts become part of the narrative without any actual evidence behind them? Our Tim Cavanaugh:
Now check out David Brooks:
We’re a nation of 318 million people. If you have an axe to grind, it’s not hard to find examples of individuals or small groups behaving in a particular manner and using them as representative of the public as a whole. ADDENDA: One of the highlights of my trip to Oregon -- perusing the shelves of Powell’s books in Portland, Oregon and finding and buying an autographed copy of William F. Buckley’s 1975 collection of columns and essays, Execution’s Eve. At least, I’m pretty sure it’s autographed. Any WFB fans out there feel confident in verifying his signature?
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