| THE GENERAL'S CONSENSUS: Over the past few days, three of America's top Army generals — two retired, one about to retire — have weighed in on the slow pace of Ukraine's counteroffensive aimed at breaking through Russian lines, severing Russia's land bridge to Crimea, and liberating much of the occupied south, including Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. Retired Gen. David Petraeus, who commanded "the surge" in Iraq and U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, has written an op-ed in the Washington Post with Fred Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute. Retired Gen. Wes Clark, the supreme NATO commander who waged the war in Kosovo in 1999, has a piece in the Daily Beast. And Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who retires next month, gave an interview last week to Jordan's Al Mamlaka TV. THE OPTIMIST: "Penetrating a modern defense in depth such as the Russians established in southern Ukraine is a tall order for any military. The U.S. military has done it twice in modern memory, both times against Iraq," said Petraeus in his opinion piece, noting that "Ukraine has none of the advantages the United States had in those operations. "Ukrainians don't have the numbers of [armored, mine-clearing bulldozers] that they would need, and they don't have air cover at all, much less air superiority or supremacy as we had. So, they adapted. And I think they've adapted very impressively," Petraeus told CNN. "I'm guardedly optimistic, with qualifications, if you will. And a lot of those have to do with how well the Russians will do once the Ukrainians are able to crack the lines in a couple of places, which I think they will be able to do." "Keep in mind, we're just at the 10-week mark," he said. "You know, this is like a third of the way through the surge in Iraq, when I was also getting lots of questions and comments and people were wondering whether the surge had failed." "The Ukrainians appear to have penetrated at least the forward-most belt of Russian mines and defenses in both areas, and their advance in the Robotyne area appears to be accelerating," he wrote. "Russia lacks large operational reserves. This means that any Ukrainian breach of existing lines will be difficult to quickly plug. This is what Ukraine is banking on. A small breach could yield relatively sudden and rapid gains." "Observers would be wise to temper their pessimism," he added. SOBERING US INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT REPORTEDLY UNDERCUTS ZELENSKY'S UPBEAT HOPES OF UKRAINIAN VICTORY THIS YEAR THE PRAGMATIST: Clark disagrees with the U.S. officials, telling the New York Times that Ukraine was "misallocating" its forces, spreading them too thin by fighting both in the east and the south at the same time. "There has been some talk about the Ukrainians didn't put enough forces in the south, but they've got the balance right in my view. They're making gains in the south. They're holding in the north. I think they're going to be successful," he told CNN. "Putin has been trying to establish a northern offensive against Kyiv to separate Kyiv and Lviv from the very beginning. It doesn't work out in the first days of smashing down on Kyiv. And it hasn't worked out yet because he can't generate the extra forces. He can't quite hold on to what he's got in Ukraine." But Clark's big takeaway from the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, which Russia said Sunday has been confirmed by DNA analysis, is that Ukraine can't deal with Russia. President Vladimir Putin can never be trusted and will never voluntarily give up his territorial ambitions. "In the West we too often imagine our opponents are "mirror images" of ourselves — we must not make this mistake with Putin. He is cunning, remorseless, and relentlessly determined to regain control of Ukraine," Clark wrote in the Daily Beast. "He doesn't honor agreements, respect laws and customs, or accept any restraint on his actions, unless it temporarily advances his purpose." "The conflict in Ukraine will end when Putin decides he can't win. The Prigozhin affair should underscore the nature of Putin, and warn us that we must avoid wishful thinking and take him ever more seriously." OPINION: PRIGOZHIN'S DEATH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED EFFORTS TO TAKE PUTIN'S PLACE BY HIS RIVALS THE PESSIMIST: Milley has been a pessimist from the start. Some would say "realist" is a better descriptor. Milley was chided by some retired generals for his downbeat assessment that it was unlikely Ukraine would make significant gains this year. He's sticking by assessment. "It's an offensive that has been going on for about, I guess, eight weeks or so. It's very bloody, slow, high casualty-producing, and it's very difficult," Milley told Jordanian TV. "So the idea of militarily kicking out 200,000 or 300,000 Russian troops is going to be very difficult and challenging." "Clearly it's had partial success to date. Now, the speed at which the offensive has been undertaking is slower than the planners had thought," Milley admitted, but he disputed the suggestion the counteroffensive is failing. "They're fighting through it. The Ukrainians have a significant amount of combat power remaining. This is not over yet, so I think it's frankly too early to say whether it's succeeded or failed." Milley also pushed back on criticism that the Biden administration has been too slow to provide airpower in the form of F-16s and long-range fires in the form of the Army Tactical Missile System of "ATACMS." "So they've been provided a lot of artillery, which you know the bread and butter of ground maneuver warfare is fires, so they've got a lot of artillery munitions, they've got a lot of artillery tubes," he said. "They've gotten long-range artillery with the [Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System]. But the ATACMs is a controversial topic, and for a lot of reasons, they haven't received those yet. They're still on the table. President Biden has not said no or yes." "F-16s — that is moving forward, actually. So there's a training program in place, and they'll likely receive F-16s here in the not too distant future." MILITARY TO TRAIN UKRAINIAN PILOTS ON F-16s IN US Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! UKRAINE LOSES 'JUICE': A well-known Ukrainian pilot who went by the call sign "Juice" was one of three pilots killed Friday when their L-39 training aircraft collided in midair during a combat mission over western Ukraine. "A tragic loss. On August 25th, two L-39 military jets collided over the Zhytomyr region. Three pilots of the Ukrainian Air Force lost their lives. One of them was Major Andrii Pilshchykov, a 2nd Class pilot and a recipient of the Order of Courage, 3rd Class, known by the callsign 'JUICE,'" the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. Pilshchykov was known for his aerial heroics during the defense of Kyiv early in the war and for being an outspoken advocate for Ukraine getting F-16 fighter jets. The crash occurred the day before Ukraine marked what it calls Aviation Day, and in a recorded video address Saturday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Pilshchykov "a Ukrainian officer, one of those who helped our country a lot." "My condolences to the family and friends, to everyone who knew the guys," he said. "Ukraine will never forget anyone who defended Ukraine's free sky. May they always be remembered!" THREE MARINES KILLED IN V-22 OSPREY CRASH: Three U.S. Marines were killed and five others were critically injured in the fiery crash of a V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft on an Australian island on Sunday. The Marine Corps MV-22B Osprey crashed on Melville Island, north of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia, "while transporting troops during a routine training exercise," the Marine Corps said in a press release. "The incident took place at approximately 9:30am. There were a total of 23 personnel on board. Three have been confirmed deceased while five others were transported to Royal Darwin Hospital." The Marines were taking part in a joint training exercise with Australian, Japanese, and Philippine troops dubbed "Predators Run." F-18 MILITARY JET CRASHES IN VICINITY OF MARINE BASE NEAR SAN DIEGO CROCODILE TEARS FOR PRIGOZHIN: Perhaps the strongest evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind the crash of the private jet that killed Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and seven of his top lieutenants is the way Putin talked about the incident. "I knew Prigozhin for a long time, since the early 1990s. He was a man of a difficult fate and made some serious mistakes in his life, but he also achieved the necessary results for himself and also for the greater good when I asked him," Putin said at a Friday meeting with the head of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic. "I would like to express my sincere condolences to the families of all the victims. It is always a tragedy when it happens," Putin said, promising a "full investigation." What was significant is that Putin didn't blame Ukraine or anyone else for the crash, clearly comfortable allowing the widespread assumption that he ordered the assassination to stand. "There is no question that Putin ordered the killing of Prigozhin," former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta said on CNN. "He's trying to assert control as a result of being weakened by that coup, probably the biggest threat to Putin in his 23 years. There is no question that people were viewing him as weakened in his response and wondered whether or not he could assert that control. "But the problem here is that, in doing so, he was going after somebody who frankly enjoyed a lot of support from Putin supporters, right-wingers, military types, people who criticized the war in Ukraine," Panetta said. "And so the very base that Putin needs in order to survive in office was also very close to Prigozhin, and as a result, I think Putin has been weakened, not strengthened, by what has happened." "What he has done is made what could be a dangerous mistake for a dictator, which is that in killing somebody like Prigozhin, you create a martyr in which opposition suddenly develops," he said. "I think Putin has got to be very careful about just exactly what the ramifications are going to be from what he's done." DONALD TRUMP MUG SHOT BOBBLEHEAD: The National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum has created a bobblehead based on the iconic mug shot photo of former President Donald Trump taken at Atlanta's Fulton County Jail last Thursday. The bobblehead, which is individually numbered and can be ordered now for shipment early next year, sells for $30. "The Trump bobblehead features the former president's unsmiling, scowling mug shot on a base bearing his name," the museum says on its website. "Glaring into the camera, Trump's brow is furrowed, his jaw clenched, and his red tie knotted tightly. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The RundownWashington Examiner: Reporter's Notebook: Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin dies in plane crash Washington Examiner: Prigozhin plane crash: Kremlin denies involvement for first time Washington Examiner: Prigozhin plane crash worsens Putin's 'prison culture' of revenge Washington Examiner: Xi Jinping's weird week abroad marred by series of missteps and petty disputes Washington Examiner: China boasts of nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia Washington Examiner: Abbey Gate Gold Star families continue to grieve while anger at Biden remains Washington Examiner: Florida representative introduces resolution to impeach Lloyd Austin over Afghanistan withdrawal Washington Examiner: The heartbreaking rationale for not paying ransom to free US hostages Washington Examiner: Iran among six countries invited to join BRICS group in major expansion Washington Examiner: Three Marines killed after Osprey aircraft crashes in Australia Washington Examiner: F-18 military jet crashes in vicinity of Marine base near San Diego Washington Examiner: NORAD intercepts civilian aircraft near Lake Tahoe during Biden stay Washington Examiner: Opinion: Yoon's triumph at Camp David Washington Examiner: Opinion: Our nuclear weapon paradoxes Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Vivek Ramaswamy can't use Ukraine to separate Russia from China Washington Examiner: Opinion: Prigozhin's death will lead to increased efforts to take Putin's place by his rivals Defense News: Senators Could Be Forced to Ram Through Some Military Nominations Soon Bloomberg: US Sees Domestic Risks to Taiwan's Ability to Fend Off China Reuters: China's 'Aggressive Behaviour' In South China Sea Must Be Challenged, U.S. Navy Official Says AP: China Sends Aircraft, Ships Toward Taiwan After U.S. Approves Arms Sale Breaking Defense: Balancing Act: Asked about China's Middle East Arms Sales, Qatari PM Lauds US 'Defense Alliance' Washington Post: Prigozhin's Popularity Is Challenge For Putin New York Times: A.I. Brings the Robot Wingman to Aerial Combat Real Clear World: Can Central Asia Engage With the Taliban Over Access To Water? Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force and DIU Ask Industry For Help Launching a Satellite on 24 Hours' Notice DefenseScoop: SPACECOM Plea to Commercial Industry: 'Don't Let the Bureaucracy Scare You' Space News: Sedaro Wins Space Force Contract to Develop Spacecraft Digital Twins Air & Space Forces Magazine: Former Chief Scientists: Office Move May Hurt S&T's Influence on Air Force Decision-Making DefenseScoop: House Bill Would Require Pentagon to Try Commercial Algorithms to Calculate BAH Air & Space Forces Magazine: Photos: Air Force Will Take on Navy in Special Doolittle Raider Uniforms Washington Post: Army doctor scrutinized in sprawling sex abuse case 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How Russia's War In Ukraine Could 'Collapse' 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: What Does Victory Look Like For Ukraine? 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why China Could Soon Invade Taiwan The Cipher Brief: Prigozhin's Final Lesson Was That Even He Could Not Escape Kremlin Rules The Cipher Brief: With Prigozhin Presumed Dead, What Happens to the Wagner Group Now? The Cipher Brief: Putin's Godfather Role of a Lifetime Forbes: Opinion: Why China's Bid To Become A Superpower Is Doomed To Failure CalendarMONDAY | AUGUST 28 7 a.m. 331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Defense Industrial Association Emerging Technologies Institute three-day conference: "Delivering New Capabilities to the Warfighter at Speed and Scale," with Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks; Bindu Nair, director of basic research at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Tracy Frost, director of the Defense Department's Manufacturing Technology Program; Army Lt. Gen. John Sullivan, deputy commander of the U.S. Transportation Command; Air Force Lt. Gen. Leonard Kosinski, director of logistics at the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Tom Rondeau, principal director of the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering's FutureG & 5G; Defense CIO for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence Juan Ramirez, deputy director of the Office of the Secretary of Defense; and William LaPlante, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment. RSVP: Evamarie Socha esocha@ndia.org 3 p.m. — Wilson Center virtual discussion: "Taiwan's International Engagement and the Way Forward," with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program, the German Marshall Fund; Yu-Jie Chen, assistant professor at Academic Sinica's Institutum Lurisprudentiae; and Shihoko Goto, director of geoeconomics at the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/taiwans-international-engagement 11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program online discussion: "Recently released German Strategy on China," with German Ambassador to the U.S. Andreas Michaelis https://www.csis.org/events/germanys-new-china-strategy TUESDAY | AUGUST 29 8 a.m. 331 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Defense Industrial Association conference: "Delivering New Capabilities to the Warfighter at Speed and Scale," with Maynard Holliday, performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for critical technologies; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Jason Rathje, director of the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering's Office of Strategic Capital; Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment; Oliver Fritz, director for operational energy at the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Environment and Energy Resilience; RuthAnne Darling, director for operational energy-innovation at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Kim Sablon, principal director for trusted AI and autonomy at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Young Bang, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Army for acquisitions, logistics, and technology; Amy Smith-Carroll, director for surface warfare at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment; Brad Belzak, director of homeland defense integration at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Kimberly Sablon, principal director for trusted AI and autonomy at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; Lt. Col. John Long, deputy to the Navy chief AI officer at the Office of Naval Research; and Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo. RSVP: esocha@ndia.org 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Reviewing the Camp David Trilateral Summit," with Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Tomita Koji; Republic of Korea Ambassador to the U.S. Cho Hyundong; and Kurt Campbell, National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs https://www.csis.org/events/reviewing-camp-david-trilateral-summit 11 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association National Training and Simulation Association virtual discussion: "Generative AI" https://www.ntsa.org/events/2023/8/30/ntsa-august-webinar/registration 12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "A View from the Right: Republican Perspectives on U.S.-Africa Policy," with former Republican California Rep. Ed Royce, policy director at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck LLP and former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; and former State Department Special Envoy for the Sahel Region J. Peter Pham, fellow at the Atlantic Council's Africa Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/republican-perspectives-on-us-africa-policy 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: "Two Years of Diplomacy with the Taliban," with Tripp Copeland, former foreign affairs officer at the State Department's Office of the Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation; Jonathan Schroden, director of the Center for Naval Analyses's Countering Threats and Challenges Program; and Shkula Zadran, Afghan 2020 youth representative to the United Nations https://quincyinst.org/event/two-years-of-diplomacy-with-the-taliban 1 p.m. 1100 Longworth — House Foreign Affairs Committee "Roundtable discussion: with Abbey Gate Gold Star Families," with Darin Hoover and Kelly Barnett, parents of Marine Corps Staff Sgt. Taylor Hoover; Steve Nikoui, father of Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Kareem M. Nikoui; Coral Briseno, mother of Marine Corps Cpl. Humberto A. Sanchez; Alicia and Herman Lopez, parents of Marine Corps Cpl. Hunter Lopez; Cheryl Rex, mother of Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Dylan R. Merola; Rick Herrera, father of Marine Corps Sgt. Nicole L. Gee; Christy Shamblin, mother-in-law of Marine Corps Sgt. Nicole L. Gee; Paula Knauss Selph, mother of Army Staff Sgt. Ryan Christian Knauss; Greg Page, father of Marine Corps Cpl. Daegan W. Page; and Mark and Jaclyn Schmitz, father and stepmother of Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz https://www.youtube.com/live 2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: "Resilience in Actions: The Army's 21st Century Cybersecurity Strategy," with Army Reserve Deputy Chief Information Officer Maj. Gen. Jan Norris; Cody Gerhardt, chief technologist at HP; and Alex Treadway, vice president and associate publisher at Route Fifty https://events.govexec.com/resilience-in-action/registration WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 30 8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association conference: "Emerging Technologies For Defense," with Steve Wax, performing the duties of assistant defense secretary for science and technology; Lt. Col. Gabriela Arraiz, deputy CTO of the Joint Special Operations Command; Laura Taylor Kale, assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy; Dev Shenoy, principal director of microelectronics in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; and Chris Miller, author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. RSVP: esocha@ndia.org 9:30 a.m. — Stimson Center virtual discussion: "Security Dynamics in Southern Asia — Views from Rising Analysts," with Riya Sinha, associate fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress; Noorulain Naseem, research associate at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute; Namra Naseer, research associate at National Defense University's Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis; and Rushali Saha, senior research associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research https://www.stimson.org/event/security-dynamics-in-southern-asia 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call briefing: "Previewing the 2023 G20, U.S.-ASEAN, and East Asia Summits," with Richard Rossow, CSIS chairman in U.S.-India policy studies; Stephanie Segal, CSIS senior fellow; and Gregory Poling, director of the CSIS Southeast Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing 10:30 a.m. — 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in-person and virtual event: "How much money for defense is enough?" with Michael O'Hanlon, director, Talbott Center; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Travis Sharp, senior fellow and director of defense budget studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-how-much-money-for-defense 11 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Defense Industrial Association National Training and Simulation Association virtual discussion: "Generative AI and Training: It's Here. Now What?" with Keith Brawner, senior researcher and program manager of U.S. Army Futures Command's Simulation and Training Technology Center; Andy Van Schaack, associate professor at Vanderbilt University; and Svitlana Volkova, chief computational scientist at the Aptima Office of Science and Technology https://www.ntsa.org/events/2023/8/30/ntsa-august-webinar/registration THURSDAY | AUGUST 31 8:30 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group NextGov/Federal Computer Week "Data and Analytics Summit," with Cameron Chehreh, vice president of sales and marketing group and general manager for the public sector at Intel; Eileen Vidrine, Air Force chief data and artificial intelligence officer; Zach Whitman, chief data officer at the General Services Administration; Oliver Wise, chief data officer of the Commerce Department https://events.nextgov.com/data-and-analytics-summit/ | | | | "I think it will be a very substantial augmentation of the Ukrainian capabilities, but it's not a game changer per se. I don't think they're going to be able to establish air superiority, much less supremacy, which is what we would have had, had we done this. ... Remember the size of force that was accumulated before we launched Desert Storm, the ground campaign of that particular war, and we had mastery of the skies. That's not going to be achieved by either side." | | Retired Gen. David Petraeus, on the effect gaining F-16s will have on Ukraine's ability to wage a more effective counteroffensive |
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