Daily on Defense: Trump says time is on his side, Iran faces oil storage dilemma, Hegseth and Caine brief today, insider bet lands soldier in deep trouble

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

‘ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD’: Both in his social media posts and during yesterday’s White House session with reporters President Donald Trump projected the image of someone unconcerned about the current standoff in the Persian Gulf.

“Don’t rush me,” Trump chided a reporter yesterday, while in a Truth Social post he boasted, “I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position. I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking!” With the war well into its eighth week Trump conceded the “​​military operation, whatever you want to call it,” was taking a little longer than he promised but said that was only because he “took a little break.”

“What we’re doing is sitting back and seeing what deal. And if they don’t want to make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily,” Trump said, insisting there were plenty more targets in Iran that have yet to be hit. “We’ve hit about 75% of our targets. We stopped a little early because they wanted to have some peace.”

For now, Trump has ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill any boat” that is observed laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz with “no hesitation.”

“Their military is totally defeated, outside of the little wise guy ships,” Trump said. “I call them the wise guy ships, the little boats that they have running around with guns in them. And we’ll take them out too when we see them.”

TRUMP ORDERS NAVY TO DESTROY ANY BOATS LAYING MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

IRAN RUNNING OUT OF OIL STORAGE SPACE: Trump is counting on another pressure point to force Iran to give in to the U.S. — the fact is it’s running out of space to store the oil it cannot export because of the U.S. blockade.

“If they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode. You know what that means?” Trump said, “If they have to stop [pumping oil out of the ground] something happens.”

“Something happens underground that essentially renders it in very poor shape, and you never recover fully. You can recover 50-60%, but you can never have it like it is right now,” Trump said. “And they have a matter of days before that event takes place.”

Reports indicate that in a desperate attempt to avoid shutting down its oil wells, Iran has pulled a 30 -year-old empty supertanker out of retirement and began towing it toward Kharg Island. But at the current rate of production the aging ship’s two million barrels capacity is only expected to buy Iran a few more days.

LINDSEY GRAHAM EXPECTS TRUMP’S IRAN BLOCKADE TO GO ‘GLOBAL’

BOLTON: ‘I THINK THE PRESIDENT’S LOST’: Trump constantly berates the media for its negative coverage of how the war is going, but his former national security advisor John Bolton also thinks Trump is making a series of tactical mistakes.

“We’ve got to make the rest of the strait, the rest of the Persian Gulf safe for traffic from oil from the Gulf Arab countries,” Bolton said on CNN yesterday. “In other words, stop Iran from exporting oil, but let our friends in the Gulf, the Gulf Arab states export oil to alleviate the global economic effects that the conflict is having.”

“If we weren’t willing to use military force to open the strait now, when are we ever going to be willing to use it?” Bolton said. I think if we try to get out of this without having demonstrated military dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian regime is going to use this like a light switch.”

“Iran clearly thinks it has the leverage. I wouldn’t have started the ceasefire. The country that benefits from the ceasefire is Iran,” Bolton said. “The ceasefire itself is incoherent. And I’m afraid that’s also a pretty good description at the moment of the direction of U.S. policy. I think the president’s lost. I don’t think he knows what to do next.”

TRUMP: US DOESN’T KNOW WHO ‘THE LEADER IS IN IRAN’

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Keely Bastow. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com

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HAPPENING TODAY:  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Dan Caine will face reporters again this morning at the Pentagon. The briefing will be livestreamed by the Pentagon beginning at 8 a.m.

Caine spoke last night at a global security summit hosted by Vanderbilt University’s Institute of National Security in Nashville, Tennessee, but he assiduously avoided any comments about the war in Iran. Instead he focused on the need for acquisition reforms aimed to stop buying combat capability that is “10-15 years behind the technology development curve.”

“I have been there on the private sector side where I had to figure out how I would operate our factories better in order to win the deal and instead of waiting on a particular proposal,” Caine said. “We want to be better buyers. Write better contracts. We are crummy contract writers and buyers.”

Caine also talked about the role of AI in modern warfare predicting the technology is going to be a “key and essential part of everything we do.”

“We are doing a lot of thinking about this,” Caine said. “AI, quantum, and other capabilities are tools for our daily lives … So we have to really normalize this and become early adopters.”

SOLDIER CHARGED WITH INSIDER BETTING: In what is a fairly new phenomenon, in which anyone can bet on almost anything the so-called prediction markets, 38-year-old Army Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was involved in the operation to oust Nicolas Maduro, was able to use his inside knowledge to make a killing betting on the timing of Maduro’s capture, according to an indictment unsealed by the Justice Department Thursday.

Van Dyke netted more than $400,000 on a $33,000 wager on the on prediction marketplace Polymarket, which ultimately resulted in charges of “unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction,” once Polymarket flagged the transaction to the Feds.

“Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works,” Polymarket posted on X. When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation.”

“Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton for the Southern District of New York. “The defendant allegedly violated the trust placed in him by the United States Government by using classified information about a sensitive military operation to place bets on the timing and outcome of that very operation, all to turn a profit. That is clear insider trading and is illegal under federal law.”

Van Dyke allegedly took elaborate steps to cover his tracks, depositing the most of his proceeds to a foreign cryptocurrency vault, closing and requesting deletion of his Polymarket account, and changing the email registered to his cryptocurrency exchange to an anonymous address.

He now faces three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years, one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years, and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.

TRUMP LAMENTS WORLD BECOMING ‘CASINO’ AFTER SOLDIER CHARGED IN MADURO RAID BET

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Trump: US doesn’t know who ‘the leader is in Iran’

Washington Examiner: Trump rules out using nuclear weapons to end Iran war

Washington Examiner: Trump orders Navy to destroy any boats laying mines in Strait of Hormuz

Washington Examiner: UK prepares divers for Hormuz mine clearing as European coalition talks

Washington Examiner: WATCH: Dramatic moment US forces board vessel accused of transporting Iranian oil

Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham expects Trump’s Iran blockade to go ‘global’

Washington Examiner: The fall of Viktor Orban is the latest omen portending a reversal of fortune for Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Hegseth’s revolving door at the Pentagon continues

Washington Examiner: Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi attacked with red liquid by protester in Berlin

Washington Examiner: Trump says Putin attending G20 in Miami would be ‘very helpful’

Washington Examiner: Trump laments world becoming ‘casino’ after soldier charged in Maduro raid bet

Washington Examiner: US soldier charged after allegedly making over $400,000 on Maduro raid bet

Washington Examiner: Todd Blanche targets record denaturalizations in citizenship fraud crackdown

Washington Examiner: House GOP pushes FISA renewal without requiring warrants for spying on Americans

Washington Examiner: ICE barred from entering homes without judicial warrants and court arrests drop: Report

Washington Examiner: Carney defends Canada’s ban on US alcohol over ‘violations of our trade deal’

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Economic intelligence on Iran and China is shaping Trump’s strategy

Washington Examiner: Opinion: US tempts China by exhausting air defense munitions in Iran war

CNN: US prepares strike options for Iran’s Strait of Hormuz defenses

New York Times: Iran War Has Drained U.S. Supplies of Critical, Costly Weapons

Wall Street Journal: Iran War Complicates Contingency Plans to Defend Taiwan, Some U.S. Officials Say

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Munitions Used vs. Iran Will Take Years to Replace, Even with Huge Pentagon Weapons Budget

The Hill: US Military Intercepts 3 Iranian Oil Tankers

Washington Post: Third U.S. aircraft carrier arrives in waters near Iran

Wall Street Journal: Chinese Satellites Over Mideast Battlefield Put US on Edge

Kyiv Independent: Russia says it received invitation to G20 Miami summit at ‘highest level’

Defense One: The Pentagon Replicated a Ukrainian-Style Drone Attack in Florida. Now It’s Changing Its Counter-Drone Strategy

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Doubles Planned F-15EX Fleet to 267 Fighters

Breaking Defense: ‘No Longer Theoretical’: Golden Dome Czar Touts First Steps amid Skepticism

Defense News: US Navy Is Reviewing Cost of Future Ford-Class Carriers to Ensure They ‘Make Sense’

DefenseScoop: Pentagon Uses GenAI.mil to Create 100K Agents

Defense One: Autonomous Weapons Will Be ‘Key Part’ of US Warfare: Joint Chiefs Chairman

Task & Purpose: Military Contractors No Longer Have ‘Immunity’ to Lawsuits Brought by Troops

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Budget Cuts SDA’s Data Transport Funding

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Selects Reservists to Become New Part-Time Guardians

The Atlantic: The Kash Patel Fallout

THE CALENDAR: 

FRIDAY | APRIL 24 

8 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual conference: “Global Turmoil and Wartime in Ukraine” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/global-turmoil-and-wartime-ukraine

10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: “Nuclear Deterrence Without Full Scale Nuclear Testing: Stockpile Stewardship, Confidence, and Risk,” with George Miller, director emeritus at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/nuclear-deterrence-without-full-scale-nuclear-testing

MONDAY | APRIL 27

3:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “The Department of Defense missile defense activities in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Marc Berkowitz, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein, direct reporting program manager for Golden Dome for America; Air Force Lt. Gen. Heath Collins, director, Missile Defense Agency; and Army Lt. Gen. Francisco Lozano, portfolio acquisition executive, Fires at the U.S. Army http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

TUESDAY | APRIL 28 

TBA House Chamber — U.S. House of Representatives joint meeting with the U.S. Senate to receive an address from King Charles III, The King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The posture of the U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2027 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Derrick Anderson, assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Katherine Sutton, assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy; Adm. Frank Bradley, commander, U.S. Special Operation Command; and Army Gen. Joshua Rudd, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Review of the Coast Guard’s FY2027 Budget Request.” http://transportation.house.gov

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 29 

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of Defense FY2027 Budget Request,” with testimony from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine http://www.armedservices.house.gov

2:30 p.m. 124 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations  Energy and Water Development Subcommittee hearing: “A Review of the President’s FY2027 Budget Request for the National Nuclear Security Administration,” with testimony from Brandon Williams, administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; David Beck, deputy administrator for defense programs, National Nuclear Security Administration; Matthew Napoli, deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation, National Nuclear Security Administration http://appropriations.senate.gov

THURSDAY | APRIL 30

9:30 a.m. 2358-C Rayburn — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: “Budget Hearing – The U.S. Air Force and Space Force,” with testimony from Air Force Secretary Troy Meink; Space Force Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations; and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach http://appropriations.house.govQUOTE OF THE DAY:  “I stand by every single word of this report. We were very diligent. We were very careful. It went through multiple levels of editing, review, care. And I think one of the things that has been most gratifying, after — immediately after the story published was, I have been inundated by additional sourcing going up to the highest levels of the government, thanking us for doing the work, providing additional corroborating information.” Atlantic staff writer Sarah Fitzpatrick, in reaction to being sued by FBI Director Kash Patel, who she alleged to have engaged in erratic behavior and excessive drinking.

QUOTE OF THE DAY
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