 Welcome to Friday's edition of Washington Secrets. Today, we run the rule over the president's week, and there's good news for Republicans thinking about the midterm elections. Was that the most consequential week of Donald Trump's second term? He announced strikes on Iran with a video posted in the early hours of Saturday morning, and then spent the rest of the week going back and forth with differing justifications, as allies expressed misgivings. Six Americans are already dead. A quick win, bringing Iran to heel with limited American casualties, and Trump will have demonstrated U.S. resolve to remake the Middle East. But any sign of a long-running conflict and the 50% or more of Americans who currently disapprove of the strikes could become a huge problem in the midterm elections. The other big news of the week came on Thursday, when Trump fired embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. As Secrets previously reported, the president did not much care for her negative headlines and string of controversies so long as she was doing exactly what he wanted. But that all changed when she appeared before a Senate oversight committee and claimed that Trump himself had signed off on a controversial $200 million ad campaign featuring Noem. You can get away with a lot under this president, but not that. So how do our two political strategists, from different sides of the aisle, grade the president's week? Jed Babbin: A So President Trump pulled the trigger, and we're at war with Iran. It has been 47 years of terrorist attacks since the 1979 Iranian revolution put the ayatollahs in power, and now they're struggling to survive. Trump fired Noem, and his popularity is soaring because of the Iran war. Trump could lose ground fast because of our casualties and because he will be tempted — like President George W. Bush before him — to call the war to an end too soon. If he does, and thus enables the ayatollahs to stay in power, he, and we, will have lost the war. We've lost six dead in the war already, and more casualties will happen. The president needs to make an Oval Office speech to explain what we're doing in Iran and what results he will desire. His social media stuff isn't enough. If he wants to lead the American people, he needs to do so. The Democrats have failed in their effort to limit Trump's war powers. Senate Minority Leader Chuckie Schumer's (D-NY) effort to pass a bill through the Senate failed, and with it, so did House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries's (D-NY) effort to pass one in the House. The Dems are stuck with defending the ayatollahs without admitting that's what they're doing. The Dems would be hilarious if the situation weren't so damned serious. Meanwhile, China — which used to get 80% of Iran's oil exports — is scrambling to deal with the new shortage, and Russia is very quiet. Cuba is suffering more now because of its energy shortage imposed by Trump's removal of former Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro. The Castro regime — which dates back to the late 1950s — may not survive. Trump's firing of Noem came after her congressional testimony and a lot of other failures. She had proposed the cessation of the Transportation Security Administration's "pre-check" and "global entry" programs, which only helped move passengers through airports. Noem wasn't a rocket scientist, only a pretty face. Meanwhile, the Democrats are still holding up the Department of Homeland Security's appropriations for political reasons, which are entirely inobvious. It's not hard at all to give Trump an A grade for the week. John Zogby: F Turns out it is dangerous going to bed on a Friday feeling like the United States and Iran had been making strides on negotiations over the latter's nuclear program. The problem is, you wake up Saturday morning to a completely different reality. A full-scale bombardment of the country continues, as does the Iranian response by attacking Gulf countries. Both sides are expanding this war. The president had not sought the support of allies with the exception of Israel; he has not laid out objectives or an exit strategy, and his actions are already impacting prices at the gas pump, for fertilizer (in time for planting season), and in the grocery store. Unlike Bush, who at least briefed the United Nations and Congress, this was total shock and awe domestically. Our polling over the years has shown that Americans will support military action as long as it is quick and we are done. This action doesn't meet that standard. Already, we see published polls from Reuters showing that only 27% support the military intervention in Iran, and 49% oppose it. The percentages of supporters among those polled by NBC News and YouGov settle in at 56% to 60%. And this is just the beginning. The president cannot give a fixed time for withdrawal nor a sense of who will take over. The removal of the ayatollah was the easy part. Our history of meddling in Iran has not been positive, and there is the real possibility that the region will be in turmoil and that Iran can become a failed state. Meanwhile, Noem has been fired, but there has been no change in policy. She has been set up with a "job" that oversees the U.S. role in Latin America. My recollection is that Latin America is where President Dwight Eisenhower sent Vice President Richard Nixon as a special envoy, when the term "Yankee Go Home" was born, and he was pelted with tomatoes. The same thing happened a decade later when President Nixon sent New York Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, his Republican rival, on a similar goodwill tour. Good luck in your new role, Kristi. Jed Babbin is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on X @jedbabbin. John Zogby is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book, Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, was just released. His podcast with son and managing partner and pollster Jeremy Zogby can be heard here. Follow him on X @ZogbyStrategies. Trump's tax cuts kick in The president and his team have long believed that tax cuts in his One Big Beautiful Bill Act would be a game-changer in November's midterm elections. And there is good news in the tax returns filed so far. A Secrets source tells us that of the 55 million returns filed so far, some 43% include at least one of the breaks contained in the bill. Some 14 million filers have claimed the overtime deduction so far, and almost 5 million have claimed the break for tip income. "We are seeing already the most successful filing season in history," said the source, adding that it was very good news for Republicans in the 2026 elections. Quote of the day Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) did more than anyone else to bring down Noem with his forensic questioning during her appearance before the oversight committee this week. He is known for his pithy commentary and did not disappoint later when asked about Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), her replacement. "I didn't want to mention it before because it would have violated the confidence, but the president, when he called me Tuesday night, the night of the hearing, when he was mad as a murder hornet. He asked me what I thought about Markwayne? And I said A, I like him. B, he's very smart. C, he is a very good businessman. And D, if I didn't believe the things I just told you, I'd lie to you cuz Markwayne would whip my ass." (Quote from Fox News's Aishah Hasnie) Mullin is famously a former mixed martial arts fighter who was undefeated in his three bouts. Lunchtime reads Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say: Best scoop of the morning. Russia has reportedly passed to Iran the locations of American military assets, including warships and aircraft. It is the first indication that a U.S. adversary has entered the fray, even if it is indirectly. Paxton says he'd consider dropping out of Senate runoff if Republicans pass voter ID bill: A stunning twist in Texas, where state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who looks like he will miss out on the Trump endorsement to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), is aiming for MAGA immortality. You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, whom you can reach at secrets@washingtonexaminer DOT COM with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you'd like to sign up, click here. | 
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