Leland Vittert’s War Notes: Victory on the Battlefield, Setbacks at Home

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NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight's 9 p.m. ET show, delivered straight to your inbox.

#USA 🎆

‼️Predictably, "Sell America" is over and was dumb

🗣️A couple of weeks ago, it was very popular to say, "Sell America."

🫧The AI boom was allegedly going to turn into a bubble
💸Treasury bills were not the safest assets
💶Maybe put your money in the Euro, or would bitcoin come back?
Reality check ✅: On Monday, the U.S. dollar came roaring back, and everyone bought U.S. treasury bills.
- 🔥Amazing — when the world is (or might be) on fire, everybody runs to America
- ✏️"The dollar is behaving in a classic manner during these periods of risk aversion and uncertainty — and that is the safe haven king," said a strategist at Pioneer Investment.
And look at that 🤩: The bet against America is over. The U.S. dollar strengthened by 1.3% this week, and all major currencies dropped, according to Bloomberg.

Operation Epic Fury 🚨

‼️The war to free Iran is going better than anybody could have expected by a couple of touchdowns — sure, the PR war is a disaster, but winning solves a lot of problems.

👀Let's look at the three things that will matter going forward:
- 1️⃣The Strait of Hormuz — it carries 20% of the world's oil every day.
  - Iran closed it by threatening attacks, and the insurance companies got spooked. Qatar shut down its liquefied natural gas production.
  - Iran hoped to force Trump's hand with rising energy prices.
  - Trump now says America will insure the ships and provide Navy escorts
  - If the strait reopens, Iran played its last card and failed
- 2️⃣The Kurds — they just launched a ground war against Iran
  - They live in northern Iraq and Iran
  - They love America despite us screwing them over time and time again
  - They are fearsome fighters
  - Other than Israel, they are our best allies
    - 👍They hate the ayatollah and IRGC, and Israel has a good relationship with them
  - Their base in Iraq means they can be funded and trained
    - 💣The Israelis are bombing Iran's internal security services, trying to soften the environment for a revolution.
    - Other reports indicate both CIA ground troops and Mossad are helping
- 3️⃣The domestic political situation at home
  - 🤷The lack of selling this war is really hurting the Trump administration. If Trump had sold the war, everyone would be thrilled; instead, the administration is having to argue why it's important.
To be fair⚖️: What the U.S. and Israeli military accomplished so far is nothing short of extraordinary.
- ‼️Killed the ayatollah — plus hundreds of top leaders
- ‼️Severely limited their ability to launch weapons
  - Reduced Iranian drone launches by 73% and ballistic missile launches by 86%.
- ‼️Blown up much of their military — now moving on to the lower-level targets
- ‼️Inflicting enormous casualties on high commanders and other leadership
- ‼️More than 2,000 strikes with over 2,000 precision munitions launched from air, land and sea
- ‼️Decimated the Iranian regime's ballistic missile capabilities
- ‼️Sunk Iran's naval vessels to the bottom of the sea
👀And what have the Iranians been able to do:
- Kill six U.S. troops — and sadly, that's what happens in war, and I guarantee you American officials were expecting a lot more casualties in this mission
  - We have forgotten what war was like in America — it's awful and messy

Zoom out🌎: The Middle East and Gulf — Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc. — are lining up behind the U.S. and Israel to fight Iran. This would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

Must read📰: The Free Press headlines, "The Coalition That Was Built After the Bombs Fell"

Back home🏠: In a bizarre twist of events, an American president is winning (big) on the battlefield and losing at home

📰To our point yesterday about the need to sell a war before you start it, read Axios' Marc Caputo and Barak Ravid's note explaining why the chance at a (successful) decapitation strike proved too good to pass up
- ✏️"The intrigue: The original plan called for a strike in late March or early April, giving the administration time to build public support. Netanyahu pushed to move faster, a U.S. official told Axios."

🤦But no one knows what the war is about. No one knows why it's going well because they don't know why we're fighting.

Zoom out🌎: If the Trump administration had sold it before starting it, they would have been much better off.
Politics: It gives Democrats an opening — here is Mark Halperin's monologue explaining why so many Democrats should support the war but can't.
Watch.

Watch tonight📺: Former Amb. Kurt Volker and retired Vice Admiral John W. "Fozzie" Miller join us

Plus➕: Retired Brig. Gen. John Teichert
Bonus📱: Watch Iran's northern border with Azerbaijan — they are close with the Israelis and reportedly putting troops on the border

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Totally Preventable Republican Disaster(s) ‼️

🤦The Texas Republican primary story is one of the worst unforced errors in modern political history.

Clean up on aisle Republican 🧹: Longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn had to spend nearly $70 million defending himself in a primary race where he won the popular vote but is now heading to a runoff against a deeply flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton.
- Look back🔙: Many MAGA folks see Cornyn as a squish
  - Paxton is an OG January 6 guy, aka hardcore Trump MAGA.
  - Paxton got into the race hoping Trump would endorse — he didn't, but he didn't endorse Cornyn either— the wounds were brutal
- 🗣️Now, Trump says he will endorse for the runoff and wants the other to drop out — everybody thinks he will endorse Cornyn, but who knows.
‼️The winner goes up against Democrat golden boy James Talarico.
- Watch out 😬: Last night, the Texas Democratic Senate primary race had the highest turnout ever
  - 🎤CNN Harry Enten: "The word to describe it for Democrats, tremendous, tremendous turnout. I mean woof, Texas Senate Democratic primary turnout, the highest ever…. We're already up to 2.3 million and that's only with 92% of the estimated vote in. That will climb ever higher."
🤦$70 million that could have been spent to defeat Talarico was spent propping Cornyn up in a bruising fight — largely because Trump wanted to make a point.
Watch tonight📺: Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., joins us.

Unforced Error No. 2‼️

🤦Today, the (disgraced) governor of Minnesota came to Capitol Hill to answer questions about his state's multibillion-dollar Somali welfare fraud story.

💸At the start of the year, the biggest story was the Minnesota Somali fraud — so much so that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz had to say he wasn't going to run for reelection

✈️So, Kristi Noem decided she would surge ICE agents to get in on the media boom.
👎Then, ICE agents shot and killed not one but two progressive agitators.
🗣️Now, Republicans are trying to get everyone to talk about the Minnesota fraud again, and it ain't working.

Watch tonight 📺: Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., on if and how Republicans can regain the domestic political narrative —

Note✏️: The news cycle has already started to drift from Iran.

Must Read📰: An Arkansas Republican just won the Republican primary for sheriff while charged with murder — have your attention?

🗣️Aaron Spencer says he shot and killed a 67-year-old man accused of sexually abusing his daughter
Personal thought💭: The first real book I ever remember reading is John Grisham's "A Time to Kill" — hard to blame the father, right?

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