| 'THE BOSS IS GETTING FED UP': As the world watches the U.S. assemble the machinery of war for what seems like an increasingly likely campaign against Iran, it is paying particular attention to one key indicator, the progress of a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, which is transiting the mouth of the Mediterranean Sea. Unlike the nuclear talks in Geneva that ended with little resolved, the carrier and its escort ships are making steady progress, and by Sunday will be off the coast of Israel well within striking distance of Iran. With almost a third of America's naval power now positioned in the Gulf region, President Donald Trump has been told that the U.S. military will be ready in days to carry out strikes against Iranian targets on his orders. Trump is said not to have a decision, but with Iran rejecting U.S. demands that it cease enriching bomb-grade uranium, he is portrayed as losing patience. "The boss is getting fed up," Barak Ravid, Global Affairs Correspondent for Axios, quoted a Trump adviser as telling him Tuesday. "Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks." "There is no evidence whatsoever that diplomacy is moving anywhere and that a deal with Iran is close," Ravid said in an appearance on CNN yesterday morning. "When you put those two together, on the one hand, huge military buildup, on the other hand, no real progress in diplomacy, he told CNN's Kate Bolduan. "I think Donald Trump is very close to giving the order to launch a massive attack against Iran." "This is not going to be Venezuela," Ravid predicted. "This is going to be a major military operation, a major war that will include a multi-week campaign." US READY TO STRIKE IRAN AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND, BUT TRUMP UNDECIDED IRAN FORTIFYING SITES: Over the past few weeks, Iran has been furiously trying to reinforce and conceal new nuclear sites it has been building since June's U.S. B-2 strikes inflicted serious damage on four sites, which President Trump insisted "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capabilities. "Our military did a brilliant job on the bombing, but no, they weren't obliterated," Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee, said on CNN. "And matter of fact, the general in charge of the Defense Intelligence Agency [got fired] for telling the truth, that said, we did great, but we couldn't obliterate. No one thought we could. So much of this was buried that there was no way." "Over the last two to three weeks, Iran has been busy burying the new Taleghan 2 facility at the Parchin military complex with soil," the Institute for Science and International Security said in a January 22 analysis of satellite imagery, which it said showed evidence of a "concrete sarcophagus" being constructed to harden the newly-built site. The satellite images also show that Iran has buried tunnel entrances at a nuclear site bombed by the U.S. and fortified tunnel entrances near another, as well as repaired some of the missile bases struck by Israel last summer. US-IRAN CONFLICT: ALL SIDES BRACE FOR WAR AS 'NOTHING BURGER' NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS PROVE FRUITLESS CONGRESSIONAL CONCERN MUTED: Unlike January's mission to capture Nicolas Maduro, when Democrats were loudly complaining that the president needed congressional approval to take military action against Venezuela, Trump's critics seem to be resigned to watching from the sidelines and hoping for the best. "The president has now conducted a military attack on Caracas, which went flawlessly, and he has conducted a military attack on the tunnels, the nuclear infrastructure in Iran. That also went flawlessly. So right now, the president believes that he can do this stuff without much risk, which is, by the way, a very dangerous frame of mind because there's a lot of risk involved," Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) said on CNN last night. Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, says it's unclear exactly what a bombing campaign will accomplish. "The president will be satisfied with something that is cinematic, that makes a big boom and destroys and breaks a lot of stuff," Himes said. "He doesn't care so much about the longer questions of regime change, which are much more challenging." "Regime change can't happen just from the air. I mean, you might get lucky, right? You might break enough stuff that the regime collapses," Himes said. "The probability of that is pretty low, though." And Himes said Trump "broke my heart" when he promised protesters to resist the regime because U.S. "help was on the way." "Presumably, the president, when he said that, he didn't appreciate the fact that they believed that we would be there in force, not just dropping bombs on battleships," he said. "And there's a long and ugly history of this." "We did this in Iraq, right? When a U.S. president sort of said 'rebel' to the Shiites under Saddam Hussein, and they did, and they got brutally murdered, and we did not show up for them." GOLF DIPLOMACY: LINDSEY GRAHAM TELLS TRUMP HE HAS 'GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY' TO TAKE ON IRAN Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: BOARD OF PEACE: President Donald Trump will address representatives from more than 20 countries and the European Union who have signed up for his Board of Peace, which he has touted as a world body that could have an impact far beyond the reconstruction and stabilization of war-ravaged Gaza. "I think it has the chance to be the most consequential board ever assembled of any kind," Trump said earlier this week. The venue for this morning's events is the newly rebranded Donald J. Trump U.S. Institute of Peace, which Trump seized from a congressionally chartered non-profit last year, after firing all the staff and board of directors. The status of the majestic building remains in legal limbo. "He will announce that member states have pledged more than $5 billion towards the Gaza humanitarian and reconstruction efforts, and have also committed thousands of personnel to the International Stabilization Force and local police to maintain security and peace for Gazans," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday. Reconstruction costs for rebuilding Gaza are expected to exceed $70 billion. Among the U.S. allies not joining the Trump board are the U.K., France, Germany, and Canada. VATICAN REJECTS INVITATION TO TRUMP'S BOARD OF PEACE, INSISTING ON UN AS 'CRISIS' MANAGER ZELENSKY: 'I DON'T NEED HISTORICAL S*** TO END THIS WAR': In a series of recent interviews and public statements, it's becoming obvious that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is increasingly frustrated by the U.S.-driven peace process that it putting all the pressure on Ukraine, and giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a pass for his rhetoric about addressing the historic root causes of the war. "I don't need historical s*** to end this war and move to diplomacy. Because it's just a delay tactic. I read no less history books than Putin," Zelensky posted on X, repeating a line he has used several times in recent days. "Putin bringing back his close adviser, Vladimir Medinsky, to head this negotiation team was — at least, President Zelensky thought — was pretty bad news, especially because the Ukrainians have history with this guy," said Axio's Barak Ravid, who spoke to Zelensky by phone Tuesday as negotiations were going on. "In previous negotiation rounds, he mostly parroted Putin's talking points on the historical background of why Ukraine was illegitimate and why Zelensky was illegitimate. And I think the Ukrainians saw it as very bad news." While the latest negotiations in Geneva addressed the mechanics of how a future ceasefire might be managed and monitored, they did nothing to address the fact that Russia has shown no intention of agreeing to a ceasefire while it doesn't control all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region. "We cannot say that the outcome of the meetings in Geneva is sufficient," Zelensky said in his nightly video address. "The military group actually made a lot of progress, a lot of progress. They're very close to basically getting an agreement on how to monitor a potential ceasefire," Ravid said on CNN. "On the political working group, where Medinsky was leading the talks on the Russian side, nothing was achieved. It was basically no progress at all." In an interview with Piers Morgan, Zelensky struggled with the words to describe his "pain" at the way Trump treats Putin as a friend while lecturing him as an adversary. "To speak about his relations with Putin, I want to be very honest. … he has some relations which I cannot really estimate or understand," he said. "Sometimes for me it's very, very painful, his attitude to Putin is sometimes more good than Putin deserves." "Zelensky's frustrated. He made it clear. But he doesn't want to start a fight with Trump," Ravid said. "But at the same time, he's not sure whether when Donald Trump says again and again and again that it's Zelensky that needs to come to the table, as if Vladimir Putin has been sitting at the table for four years waiting for Volodymyr Zelensky to come." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: US-Iran conflict: All sides brace for war as 'nothing burger' nuclear negotiations prove fruitless Washington Examiner: US ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump undecided Washington Examiner: Trump says Diego Garcia could be used to 'eradicate' Iranian attack, urges UK against lease Washington Examiner: Golf diplomacy: Lindsey Graham tells Trump he has 'generational opportunity' to take on Iran Washington Examiner: US to withdraw all remaining troops from Syria Washington Examiner: Democrats to skip Trump's State of the Union for counter rally on National Mall Washington Examiner: Former South Korean President Yoon sentenced to life in prison for declaring martial law Washington Examiner: Air Force releases new paint scheme for executive airlift fleet Washington Examiner: Opinion: Rubio's Churchillian moment in Munich Washington Examiner: Analysis: The real differences inside the GOP driving Vance-Rubio rivalry talk Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump may not have 'made the case' for US to take military action on Iran: Byron York AP: Rubio plans to update Netanyahu on US-Iran talks in Israel next week, officials say New York Times: U.S. Military Moves Into Place for Possible Strikes in Iran The Atlantic: Hegseth's Firing Campaign Reaches Down Into the Ranks Wall Street Journal: US Arms Sale to Taiwan in Limbo Amid Pressure Campaign from China Breaking Defense: Canada Is Still Interested in Golden Dome. What Can It Bring—and How Could It Fall Apart? Defense News: Sentinel ICBM Program Hit by Software Delays, Minuteman Extension Risks: GAO The War Zone: Major Deployment of Rickety E-3 Sentry Fleet for Iran Crisis Highlights Worrisome Gaps Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Delays F-15EX Deliveries to Kadena, Continues Rotational Deployments Breaking Defense: Northrop Not Seeking Direct DOD Investment for Solid Rocket Motors, but Suppliers Might: CEO Defense One: The Pentagon Says It's Getting Its AI Providers on 'the Same Baseline' Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Developing AI Chatbot for Student Pilots Air & Space Forces Magazine: Massive Bamboo Eagle Exercise Returns, with Focus on C2 'Nervous System' The Bulwark: Mark Hertling Opinion: America's Generals Shouldn't Face Political Loyalty Tests Foreign Affairs: Ukraine and the New Way of War Forbes: Commentary: Putin's War Story — and the Price of Believing Him CSIS: Satellite Imagery Analysis of China's Alleged 2020 Nuclear Test at Lop Nur THE CALENDAR: THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 19 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Japan's Election and Implications for Korea and U.S," with Kristi Govella, associate professor at the University of Oxford; Philip Luck, CSIS chair in international business; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair; and Mark Lippert, CSIS nonresident senior adviser https://www.csis.org/events/japans-election-and-implications 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation book discussion: The Great Heist: China's Epic Campaign to Steal America's Secrets, with author David Shedd, former acting director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.heritage.org/china/event/chinas-epic-intelligence-heist-insights-david-shedd 11 a.m. — Foreign Policy virtual discussion: beginning at 11 a.m., on "Decoding Trump's China Policy.," with former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell https://foreignpolicy.com/live/kurt-campbell-trump-china-policy 12:30 p.m. 125 E St. NW — Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy discussion: "What is the 'Trump Doctrine?' with Peter Bergen, CNN national security analyst, and vice president for global studies and fellows at New America https://events.georgetown.edu/event/37826-what-is-the-trump-doctrine 2 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University Security Studies Program; and GU Bern Security Dialogue Initiative event: "Alpine Security in a Fragmented World, the launch of the new Bern Security Dialogue initiative, with former Joint Chiefs Chairman retired Army Gen. Mark Milley; and retired Lt. Gen. Jurgen-Joachim van Sandrart, former commanding general of the NATO Multinational Corps North-East https://events.georgetown.edu/event/bern-security-dialogue 3 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies media call on the on the four-year mark (Feb. 24) of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with FDD senior fellow retired Rear. Adm. Mark Montgomery, who is in Kyiv, and in Washington John Hardie, deputy director, FDD Russia Program; Ivana Stradner, FDD research fellow; and Peter Doran, FDD adjunct senior fellow. email [email protected] to RSVP and to receive the Zoom link. 4 p.m. — Jewish Democratic Council of America virtual discussion: "What Comes Next in Iran?" with former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro; Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East; and Holly Dagres, Middle East analyst and Iran expert https://www.mobilize.us/jewishdems/event 5 p.m. 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: "The War in Ukraine: An Update from the Front," with Glen Corn, 34-year veteran of the U.S. intelligence and foreign affairs communities and founding partner of Varyag https://www.iwp.edu/the-war-in-ukraine-an-update-from-the-front FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 20 10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: "Engineering the Future of Deterrence: Integrating Advanced Systems for Modern Security," with Laura McGill, director, Sandia National Laboratories https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/registration-coming-soon/ 2 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute book discussion: Retrench, Defend, Compete: Securing America's Future Against a Rising China, with author Charles Glaser, senior fellow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Security Studies Program; Patricia Kim, Brookings Institution fellow in foreign policy; and Evan Sankey, Cato policy analyst https://www.cato.org/events/retrench-defend-compete TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 24 7 p.m. — President Donald Trump delivers 2026 State of the Union Address to a joint meeting of Congress TUESDAY | MARCH 3 226 Dirksen — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing: "Oversight of the Homeland Security Department," with testimony from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem http://judiciary.senate.gov WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4 10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing: "Oversight of Fraud and Misuse of Federal Funds in Minnesota: Part II," with testimony from Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) http://oversight.house.gov | | | | "The secretary of defense is spending his time doing things that those well below his pay grade should be doing … And he is not doing the things that only the secretary of defense can do." | | Kori Schake, director, foreign and defense policy, American Enterprise Institute, and author of The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the U.S., on Pete Hegseth's penchant for purging military officers based on his perception of their political leanings |
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