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Top stories today: - Fed keeps rates at 5.25% - 5.50%, with a rate cut 'as soon as [Sep.]'
- Meta's revenue +22% to $39.1B, as Reality Labs still loses $4.5B
- NVIDIA stock +13% after Microsoft's bullish results, AMD's results
- Harris edges higher to 43% odds after Trump interview, more polling
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0. Data and calendar |
 | All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT). |
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 | All times are ET. |
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1. Fed keeps rates at 5.25% - 5.50%, with a rate cut 'as soon as [Sep.]' |
Risks to the Fed's "dual mandate" were added to the FOMC statement, signaling a growing worry with weaker labor markets: |
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Powell's full quote: "The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market. If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September."
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Markets price in a near certainty of rate cuts in Sep., little changed from before the meeting |
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3. Meta's revenue +22% to $39.1B in Q2, operating profit +58% to $14.8B, as Reality Labs still loses $4.5B |
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4. NVIDIA stock +13% after Microsoft's bullish results, AMD's results |
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Higher spend on NVIDIA GPUs next year, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and CFO Amy Hood said Tuesday. AMD increased its 2024 guidance by 11% to $4.5B, with its AI divisions fueling growth. Both facts increased investor confidence in NVIDIA's ability to keep growing revenues and avoid an AI hardware peak.
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5. Harris edges higher to 43% odds after Trump interview, more polling |
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Trump's interview at NABJ event sees tough questions. Harris +0.2 in Nate Silver's polling average, also 43% odds. Shapiro at 67% for Dem. VP, Beshear 10%, Walz 9%. Trump proposes eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits. 100+ VCs, including Khosla, Hoffman, pledge support for Harris.
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6. Interesting videos, posts, and memes |
 | Ethan Mollick: Why OpenAl Abandons Products, The Biggest Opportunities They Have Not Taken | E1184 |
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7. Other headlines |
AI |
Gemma 2 2B outperforms some larger LLMs, underperforms Llama 3.1 8B. TikTok paying ~$20M/mo to buy OpenAI models through Microsoft.
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Tech |
Delta: CrowdStrike, Microsoft outage cost $500M. Spring Health, mental health startup, raises $100M at $3.3B. Reddit CEO: Bing, Anthropic, Perplexity must pay to search site.
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Rippling: maximize HR impact and hire global teams in one unified system.* Pipedrive helps you drive more deals from day one.* Mercury solves the puzzle of startup finances.*
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Tech earnings |
Qualcomm's revenue +11% to $9.39B. eBay's revenue +1% to $2.57B, GMV +1% to $18.4B. Arm's revenue +39% to $939M, seeing weakness in certain markets.
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Tech & law |
NO FAKES Act, anti-AI deepfakes, introduced by senators. Applied Materials denied U.S. Chips Act grant for $4B project. SEC charges IRL's former CEO with fraud. Beijing seeks starting national internet ID system.
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Business |
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Crypto |
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U.S. politics |
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World |
Iran's Khamenei orders attack on Israel, officials say. Iraq strike carried out by U.S. Maduro: rivals, protestors should be jailed for 30 years. Russia may be preparing exchange of 20-30 political prisoners.
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