On the Campaign Trail

U.S. Elections 2024

By James Oliphant, national political correspondent

If there is one question confounding Democratic strategists this election year, it's this: Why are American voters in such a bad mood? It's not an easy one to answer, but voters' feelings about the state of the nation are likely the biggest obstacle to President Joe Biden's reelection bid.

That question has been on my mind a lot as I've spoken to voters across the country, including for this analysis showing that Biden is hemorrhaging support among key voter groups that were part of his winning coalition four years ago.

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Latest election headlines

Why are voters in a bad mood?

On one level, it's easy to understand why voters are so grim. They have been through a lot in the last few years: The tumult of the Trump presidency; a global pandemic that brought financial upheaval, followed by a sharp spike in the cost of living; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; climate disasters; war in Ukraine and Israel and Gaza; and a porous southern border.

And TV news viewers just experienced six weeks of nonstop coverage of Republican Donald Trump's unprecedented Manhattan trial and conviction on felony charges that he falsified business documents to pay hush money to a porn star that blocked out stories about almost anything else.

All of it's enough to make anyone feel gloomy or at the very least, exhausted.

The Biden campaign would rather voters look at low unemployment rates, wage growth, new infrastructure projects and the president's commitment to democracy, which he highlighted in an impassioned speech on Thursday at the 80th anniversary of World War Two's pivotal D-Day landings in Normandy.

Some undecided voters remain unpersuaded, with their lack of faith in the economy's stability underpinned by their ambivalence over being asked to choose between Biden, 81, and Trump, 77, again.

Mary Jo McConnell, 67, who responded to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll and holds two part-time jobs to supplement her Social Security benefits, told me she just shakes her head when Biden says the economy is in good shape. But she has no love for Trump either.

"The politicians are out of touch in that they don't understand what most of us are going through," McConnell said.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last month showed widespread pessimism on almost every front. More than 65% of registered voters said the country was "on the wrong track" on issues such as the economy, the cost of living, immigration and the political environment.

The good news for Biden is that many of the voters who are down on him haven't defected to Trump. The president's campaign told me they believe they can bring those voters back into the fold before November and that few of them will ultimately cross over to support Trump.

That may have been one reason why Biden this week signed an executive measure that clamps down on border security, instituting restrictions that were similar to those put in place during the Trump administration.

But right now, the election seems to favor the carnage-and-chaos narrative that Trump spreads, which he has amplified with his conviction on 34 felony counts last week. Trump has tried to turn the guilty verdict into a referendum on America's judicial system – and the fate of the country itself – by describing himself as a "political prisoner of a failing nation."

His most fervent supporters responded to the verdict with calls for violence and retribution. Trump warned jailing him might push the country to a "breaking point."

Some Republicans responded to the verdict by saying they could no longer support Trump, but the Biden campaign was still unsure whether it ultimately would have much of an impact.

For Biden and his campaign's sake, they better hope something registers with the public soon to put them in a brighter frame of mind. Have they considered cat videos?

Poll of the week

Fact check of the week

Trump's May 30 historic conviction on felony charges by a New York jury made waves offline and online. A Threads post shared a photo of a Black female police officer with the text, "Meet: Rohondra Williams Trumps Probation Officer." The woman photographed, however, is an Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department commander named Nikole Pilkington.

"No IMPD officer nor Commander Pilkington has had any involvement in the New York Trump case or has been assigned as a probation officer in this case," the Indianapolis Metro Police Department said. Read more.

In this section, the Reuters fact-checking team addresses misinformation connected to the U.S. elections. Find more fact-checks from around the world here.

Photo from the trail

An asylum-seeking migrant from China rests on a rock while waiting to be transported by the U.S. Border Patrol after crossing the border from Mexico into the U.S. in Jacumba Hot Springs, California, U.S. June 4, 2024. REUTERS/Go Nakamura

The view from Mexico

The newly elected president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, is unlikely to replicate the "bromance" her predecessor had with Trump, should Trump be elected, analysts and former told Reuters. Outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador found surprising common ground with Trump despite tensions over trade and migration.

That may be a tougher task for Sheinbaum, given her more reserved and disciplined style. But she will need to maintain a solid trade relationship, one political analyst said, because Mexico's economy largely depends on the U.S., which is by far its biggest trading partner.

What to watch for

June 7: Biden delivers D-Day anniversary remarks at the Pointe du Hoc cliffs on defending democracy
June 9: Trump holds a rally in Las Vegas
June 12: Biden departs for meeting of G7 wealthiest countries in Bari, Italy
June 27: Biden and Trump debate on CNN

The who, what and when

Find up-to-date elections coverage, interactive data and more on Reuters.com.

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