Washington Secrets: Democrats keep expanding their battleground map. History suggests it’s a mirage

WASHINGTON SECRETS

BY ROB CRILLY

Welcome to Thursday’s Washington Secrets. We have another nerdy look into the final stages of midterm campaigning, and we ask whether Democrats have any chance in the districts they have just added to the list of targets.

Democrats announced last week that they were adding six more candidates to their “red to blue” program, expanding the midterm battleground to districts where Donald Trump won by an average of 16 points two years ago.

It means extra resources, with strategy guidance, fundraising, and training pouring in from the Democratic Campaign Committee. But is it real?

With Democrats clearly on top in polling and forecasts for control of the Senate, do they really believe they can win, for example, New York’s 21st district, where their dairy farmer candidate is running to win the seat vacated by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and which went to Trump by 21 points in 2024?

Is it a colossal head fake to divert Republican resources to deep red districts and away from the real battlegrounds? Or does the DCCC really think it is on the brink of a colossal blue wave that could see them win the 46 seats of its “red to blue” program and deliver a majority of 85?

Secrets has the answer: History suggests the late additions to the target list are aspirational rather than real.

Analysis of past cycles, shared with Secrets, suggests Democrats rarely pick up any of the districts when they expand the map at the end of the race.

In 2024, only one of three late adds, for April McClain Delaney in Maryland’s 6th District, won. And that was an open seat that had previously been held by a Democrat and only included in the “red to blue” program because it was a competitive race.

In 2022, five of the six candidates added late in the cycle lost. Again the only winner was in an open, Democratic-held seat.

In 2020, both late additions lost. And of 33 candidates promoted by the “red to blue” program in total, only one was successful: Carolyn Bordeaux in Georgia’s 7th District.

Perhaps the most useful comparison is in 2018, when there was no presidential election, and Democrats flipped 41 seats.

Again, the DCCC’s late additions to their map were largely unsuccessful. Of the nine candidates added in the final six weeks of campaigning, only Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) won in New Hampshire’s 1st District. And again, that was an open seat which had previously been held by a Democrat.

This time around, Democrats think an unpopular president, high fuel prices, and an unwanted war mean previously unreachable districts are within their grasp.

Announcing the six additions last week, DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene said: “The candidates added to our Red to Blue program today are winning over voters with their message of lowering costs — from gas and groceries to health care and housing.”

Yet there are whispers within Democratic ranks that they may be overstretching themselves, particularly when Republicans have a cash advantage in the closing stages.

“There’s no point in wading into races at this stage if the best possible outcome is cutting the margin of Republican victory,” said a Democratic strategist. “We are better off focusing on places where we know we can win.”

A string of recent polling analysis has suggested there may be reasons to think surveys are overestimating support for Democrats. On Wednesday, Secrets described how a common mode of finding respondents — sending text message links to online polls — may be drawing in a disproportionate number of disgruntled ex-Trumpers.

For their part, Republican strategists know they are in for a rough ride but accuse Democrats of hubris.

“This is the same late-cycle gimmick House Democrats pull every two years,” said a Republican strategist, who conducted the historical analysis. “They slap a “Red to Blue” label on a bunch of long-shot races, pretend they’ve expanded the battlefield, and then quietly lose almost all of them on Election Day.”

“The history here is pretty brutal, and the difference this time is that Democrats are already stretched thin trying to protect their own incumbents. History always repeats itself,” the strategist added.

Six appeal

The six Democrats added to the “red to blue” slate in October were:

Arkansas’s 2nd District, Chris Jones: In one of the highest-profile additions, Jones is taking on House Financial Services Committee Chair Rep. French Hill (R-AR). Trump won the district by 16 points in 2024.

Colorado’s 3rd District, Dwayne Romero: Romero is an Army veteran taking on Rep. Jeff Hurd (D-CO). This seat voted for Trump by 10 points.

Florida’s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who has distanced herself from Trump’s deportation policies. The president won here by 15 points.

Nevada’s 2nd District, Teresa Benitez-Thompson: This district was won by Trump by 21 points but is open because of Rep. Mark Amodei’s (R-NV) retirement.

New York’s 21st District, Blake Gendebien: A dairy farmer in upstate New York is running against Republican Anthony Constantino to win the seat held by Rep. Elise Stefanik, who is stepping down. Trump won it by 21 points two years ago.

Tennessee’s 9th District, Justin J. Pearson: A Memphis native who serves as a state representative is running in a redrawn district that Trump would have won by 21 points.

You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at secrets@washingtonexaminer.com with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.

The first rule of throwing rocks at the police

Thousands of students rioted in the Albanian capital of Tirana on Wednesday. Their actions capped a summer of anti-corruption protests that erupted in part because of the proposed development of a luxury coastal resort backed by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The proposal has been caught up in legal disputes.

One quote in a Reuters report caught Secrets‘ eye.

“This is a revolution. We are tired ‌of peaceful protests. We will not stop until Rama resigns,” ‌said Lora, a student who declined to give her last name as she threw rocks at the police.

In Secrets‘ experience, it is always a sound move not to give one’s name when engaging in violence. Particularly against the police.

Lunchtime reading

Dispelling the myth of Cormac McCarthy as cowboy-artist: We here at Secrets love an author biography, particularly when it involves someone as mythologized as Cormac McCarthy. Cowboy-artist indeed!

The GOP’s midterm lifeline: Maybe the polls are wrong: Secrets dove into this yesterday with warnings about one mode of sampling. But let’s be clear: The polls are not THAT wrong.