The number of settlers in the occupied West Bank (including East Jerusalem) has risen from 270,000 in 1993 at the time of the Oslo Accords to about 770,000 today. Settlements are often framed as the project of violent extremists backed by far-right cabinet ministers, but Israel’s annexation enjoys longstanding cross-party support. As Emma Graham-Harrison wrote in January, the idea has “persisted in Israeli political imagination,” and although Israeli politicians have condemned settler violence, roughly half of Israelis think settlements help Israel’s security.
In August, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government opened the tendering process for construction work on the E1 settlement, a vast project for 1,200 homes that would cut across the heart of the West Bank, dividing it in two and jeopardising the prospect of a two-state solution. Final bids for these contracts close days before the Israeli election next month, and the timing is strategic. “Netanyahu is trying to make E1 an election issue,” Patrick Wintour tells me.
Miliband’s predecessors Yvette Cooper and David Lammy condemned the plans for E1, and Cooper backed international sanctions on individual settlers. But neither went as far as Miliband. “He’s a more decisive foreign secretary,” Patrick tells me. “You can’t sporadically say this is an outrage, and then not mention it for two months”.
His stance also reflects Labour’s desire to win back voters on the left. The post-match analysis from Labour’s disastrous May local elections focused on the threat of Reform, but the Greens were a bigger threat to Labour’s vote. Miliband acknowledged yesterday that “Labour has not done enough in the face of what is happening”, and has announced these sanctions just before a pivotal byelection in Holborn and St Pancras, where the leader of the Green party, Zack Polanski, will be contesting Keir Starmer’s former seat.
What has Miliband announced?
It’s worth remembering where we were just two years ago, when Starmer’s government was still resisting calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. Although Starmer became more critical of Netanyahu’s government and ultimately recognised Palestinian statehood, Miliband’s speech marked a significant shift in tone and substance from this equivocating stance. He framed his intervention not as an argument with Israelis, “with whom the UK has unshakeable bonds”, but with the conduct of Israel’s government, its illegal occupation of Palestine, and with “settler terrorists”, while attacking the Boycott, Divest and Sanctions movement that calls to limit all trade with Israel.
The first measure he announced is a widely anticipated ban on the import of goods from illegal settlements. This is important, not least because these settlements violate international law, but the economic impact of the ban will probably be minimal. The settlement economy is relatively small, and its products are already excluded from a 1995 EU free trade deal that reduces the tariffs on Israeli imports to Europe. It’s also kept alive by generous subsidies from the Israeli government. Israeli exporters to Europe regularly hide the origins of produce grow in settlements, something that could be dealt with by the “comprehensive sanctions regime” Miliband is working up with the business secretary.
As significant as the ban itself is the fact France and Canada will join the UK in sanctioning Israeli settlements, a diplomatic coup for Miliband. Far-right ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have come out forcefully against Miliband’s sanctions (on Monday, Ben-Gvir issued a statement in Spanish calling for sanctions on Britain over its “occupation” of the Falkland Islands). Part of the reason is because Israel’s economy is bound far more closely to Europe than to the United States, and they fear a domino effect. “The UK is a permanent member of the security council, and they’re worried that Miliband’s statement could shift the window in terms of what seems politically possible,” says Emma. “Someone else stands up and says it, and suddenly, you aren’t taking an initiative – you’re following another country.”
What will this mean for illegal settlements?
One of its most transformative changes could be Miliband’s pledge to take action against companies and individuals who finance or “facilitate” illegal settlements. Any individual or company that wants to bid for government led construction projects, including new settlement expansion, needs a guarantor to underwrite their new property. Settlement residents also need banking services. Under these changes, banks and other companies that provide services to Israeli settlements will be sanctioned.
“Hypothetically, this could force mainstream financial organisations in Israel to choose between financing settlements, or doing business with the UK,” Emma says.
What has the fallout been?
Israeli ministers have frequently made their intentions in the West Bank clear, but the gap between reality and the reactions of the international community is vast. Miliband’s statement went some way towards closing that. He announced that the British government officially views Israel’s occupation as unlawful (it had previously declared settlements illegal but remained silent on the wider occupation) and that it will refuse all licences for arms that contribute to the occupation. He chose his words carefully, accusing “settler terrorists” of “ethnic cleansing”. As the Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard observed, the recognition of ethnic cleansing triggers legal obligations on the UK to prevent it in the West Bank, potentially dictating “many aspects of British policy towards Israel”.
Israel retaliated by announcing it will be closing the consulate in Jerusalem and banning 11 MPs (on a list topped by Jeremy Corbyn) from entering the country. Meanwhile, the US has threatened “repercussions”. “There is no limit on what Trump could potentially do,” Patrick says. “But it’s worth bearing in mind that he is quite ambivalent about Netanyahu at the moment.” Their relationship has soured over Israel’s refusal to agree to Trump’s peace plan and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Unquestioning bipartisan support for Israel among US politicians appears to be faltering. Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff who is sounding out a presidential bid, has said he would back sanctions on companies financing illegal settlements. Earlier this week, Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, attacked Miliband for “Jew hate” over the (not yet announced) sanctions plans, but he has also called settler violence an “act of terror”. Miliband’s statement is a powerful recognition of the international law that Israel has relentlessly tried to reject, and comes at a time when itlooks increasingly isolated.
The Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim near the E1 corridor, where a housing project could cleave the West Bank in two. Photograph: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images
Comments
Post a Comment