Donald Trump's hush-money trial has attracted an avalanche of media attention over the last six weeks, and for obvious reasons: There is a decent chance that in the coming days the presumptive GOP nominee for president will be a convicted felon, a historic first.
But, according to pollsters and plugged-in campaign professionals, it's unlikely that the outcome of the trial will have a decisive impact on voter perceptions of a man who has dominated American media for the better part of the last decade.
"Polling is not a good vehicle for getting voters to anticipate their reaction to events that haven't occurred yet," says Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster at North Star Opinion Research. He pointed to the Access Hollywood tape ahead of the 2016 election, when many voters told pollsters in the immediate aftermath of its release that they couldn't possibly vote for Trump before voting for him anyway.
What is clear, Ayres added, is that 81-year-old Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent president since Jimmy Carter, his poll numbers are toxically low, and the vast majority of Americans — including a massive chunk of his 2020 coalition — think he is far too old to serve effectively in a second term. This underdog status bears out in the polls, with the presumptive GOP nominee still narrowly leading Biden in most battleground-state surveys.
"It would take a very gifted politician to overcome his current polling numbers," Ayres added. "And Joe Biden is no Bill Clinton . . .
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