Morning Jolt: Should We Worry about the Flattening Yield Curve?

In today's Jolt, we'll take a look at the bond markets and what they could mean for continued economic growth; how other countries are handling migration issues of their own; and Chuck Schumer's resistance to legislative fixes to the family-separation crisis at the border.

It's Time to Pay Attention to the Bond Markets

“Should we worry about the flattening yield curve?” That's the question everyone was asking after last week's Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent market action. ("Everyone" might be a generous word.) The "yield curve" is simply the difference between treasury-bond yields of different maturities. Take the spread between the two-year yield, which is hovering around 2.5 percent, and the ten-year yield, which is hovering around 2.9 percent. The two–ten curve is the difference between those two numbers, and it currently sits at 37 basis points, or 0.37 percent: flatter than at any point since 2007.

Financial writers and investors often cite the two–ten curve as a relevant piece of information. Because the two-year yield is a rough signal of the bond market's expectations for monetary policy over the next two ...

June 20 2018

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Should We Worry about the Flattening Yield Curve?

Theodore Kupfer

In today's Jolt, we'll take a look at the bond markets and what they could mean for continued economic growth; how other countries are handling migration issues of their own; and Chuck Schumer's resistance to legislative fixes to the family-separation crisis at the border.

It's Time to Pay Attention to the Bond Markets

“Should we worry about the flattening yield curve?” That's the question everyone was asking after last week's Federal Reserve meeting and the subsequent market action. ("Everyone" might be a generous word.) The "yield curve" is simply the difference between treasury-bond yields of different maturities. Take the spread between the two-year yield, which is hovering around 2.5 percent, and the ten-year yield, which is hovering around 2.9 percent. The two–ten curve is the difference between those two numbers, and it currently sits at 37 basis points, or 0.37 percent: flatter than at any point since 2007.

Financial writers and investors often cite the two–ten curve as a relevant piece of information. Because the two-year yield is a rough signal of the bond market's expectations for monetary policy over the next two ... Read More

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