We Have Our Top Ten. And Our Perhaps-More-Interesting Seven.
The debate lineup is set: "Real estate magnate Donald Trump; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush; Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; Texas Sen. Ted Cruz; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio; Kentucky; Sen. Rand Paul; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; and Ohio Gov. John Kasich." Kasich, coming in at number ten, is pleased as punch! It's only fitting that this phase of the Republican presidential nomination begins in Ohio—the Mother of Presidents. After all, no Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio. As governor, I am glad to welcome my fellow debate participants to our great state and I look forward to discussing the issues facing our country with them on Thursday. Until then I hope everyone enjoys themselves in Cleveland; it's a great town. Most folks participating in the not-ready-for-prime-time 5 p.m. (2 p.m. on the West Coast!) debate put their best spin on it, like Carly Fiorina: I look forward to answering questions on Thursday in Cleveland. I continue to be encouraged by the support of conservative activists and grassroots Republicans across the country--even just today from the readers of PJ Media and Breitbart. They know we need someone from outside the political class if we want America back in the leadership business. I like the honesty from Rick Santorum's camp: "The idea that they have left out the runner-up for the 2012 nomination, the former four-term governor of Texas, the governor of Louisiana, the first female Fortune 50 CEO, and the 3-term Senator from South Carolina due to polling seven months before a single vote is cast is preposterous," Rick Santorum communications manager Matt Beynon said in a statement Tuesday. Meanwhile, Chairman Reince Priebus is clucking: Our field is the biggest and most diverse of any party in history and I am glad to see that every one of those extremely qualified candidates will have the opportunity to participate on Thursday evening. Republicans across the country will be able to choose which candidate has earned their support after hearing them talk through the issues. "Democrats will have to take Hillary Clinton's word that she deserves to be their nominee. While the RNC is moving forward with our sanctioned debate schedule, the DNC has yet to even announce when they will put her onstage. Considering how Hillary's plummeting in New Hampshire -- right now leading Bernie Sanders, 42 percent to 36 percent! -- the Democratic debates might be getting interesting. 
John Kasich is a Tax-Cutter! Just Not the Tax-Cutter He Could Be. Two points I didn't get to include in yesterday's piece on John Kasich's rise in the polls, a phenomenon I think is getting overhyped by a political media world eager to find a new storyline and celebrate a Republican who's critical of his own party . . . "On paper, Kasich should be the frontrunner. (Same for Perry," veteran GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway told me. "A two-term governor of a must-win state that won re-election by 18 points sounds like a dream from the dual perspectives of electability and the electoral college. Yet so far the voters are not convinced. Like others, his attempt at tough-guy-straight-talker has been TRUMPed, and it is tough to discern what one or two ideas or solutions he has superglued himself to in these early 'define yourself' days." She concluded, "Going from below a survey's margin of error to just above is not earth-shattering." Secondly, John Kasich has signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, and all of his budgets have amounted to net tax cuts. But look closely, and you'll see why it's a net tax cut: The budget holds an estimated net income tax cut of $1.9 billion over two years for individuals and small businesses. It cuts taxes across all brackets by 6.3 percent. Small businesses would get a 75 percent break on their first $250,000 in income earned this year and would see that entire tax bill forgiven next year. They would pay a flat 3 percent rate on income above $250,000. Smokers will pay 35 cents more for a pack of cigarettes, bringing the total tax to $1.60. But the budget does not include his other proposals to raise taxes to help underwrite a deeper income tax cut. He wanted a higher sales tax rate, an expanded sales tax base, and higher taxes on other tobacco products, and larger business earnings. The plan contains a study committee, however, that will at least look at Mr. Kasich's proposed hike on oil and natural gas "fracking" operations. Which is all fine, except the Republican-dominated state legislature wanted even more tax cuts and had no appetite for Kasich's proposed tax hikes: It's unusual for a governor to be rebuffed like that by a legislature dominated by members of his own party, said Thomas Sutton, who chairs the political science department at Baldwin Wallace University. But Sutton said it was understandable given that Kasich's budget went against the grain, proposing a number of tax increases that conservative lawmakers weren't ready to accept. "The legislature was really reluctant to upset the apple cart and disturb the status quo," he said. "They're not sure what they would gain from it, but they're pretty certain about what they would lose in terms of negative public reaction." How often do you see a Republican governor paring back tax-cut proposals from a Republican-dominated state legislature? If You Want to See Better Schools, Take a Hard Look at New Orleans Meanwhile, down in Louisiana, the Education Research Alliance for New Orleans (at Tulane University) completed a comprehensive review of the school-reform efforts exacted in New Orleans after Katrina -- and walks away impressed. If you've forgotten: Within the span of one year, all public-school employees were fired, the teacher contract expired and was not replaced, and most attendance zones were eliminated. The state took control of almost all public schools and began holding them to relatively strict standards of academic achievement. Over time, the state turned all the schools under its authority over to charter management organizations (CMOs) that, in turn, dramatically reshaped the teacher workforce. New Orleans probably pulled off the biggest, most consequential, and fastest improvement of its schools in recent history: For New Orleans, the news on average student outcomes is quite positive by just about any measure. The reforms seem to have moved the average student up by 0.2 to 0.4 standard deviations and boosted rates of high school graduation and college entry. We are not aware of any other districts that have made such large improvements in such a short time. The effects are also large compared with other completely different strategies for school improvement, such as class-size reduction and intensive preschool. This seems true even after we account for the higher costs. While it might seem hard to compare such different strategies, the heart of the larger school-reform debate is between systemic reforms like the portfolio model and resource-oriented strategies. That's the good news. Here are the caveats, and they're fair points: There was nowhere to go but up. Pre-Katrina, the New Orleans public school system was highly dysfunctional, and student test scores made it the second-lowest-ranked district in the second-lowest-ranked state in the country. New Orleans is an attractive city for young educators. The national response to the hurricane aftermath was heartening, and for many young people, contributing to the rebuilding effort became a calling. Later, as the reform effort took hold, New Orleans also became the nation's epicenter of school reform, an ideal place for aspiring reform-minded educators. Because the city is smaller than many urban districts, school leaders could be very selective in choosing from the pool of educators who wanted to come and work there. When I was working on my 2011 piece on Jindal, I went with him when he visited Sci Academy in New Orleans. There were a million little signs of the strictness and high expectations cultivated in every student; one I remember was a map of the country in the hallway with every teacher's college marked. There were probably three dozen schools and universities listed, including several Ivy League ones. I think at the top was a question, "WHERE WILL YOU GO?" I remember thinking how great it was that these students -- about 90 percent poor enough to qualify for lunch assistance, from poorer neighborhoods, partially the Ninth Ward -- were being treated as if college attendance was a given, a natural expectation of their lives after high school. The report continues: The effects might also be smaller, at least in the short run, if the reforms were adopted on a statewide basis, because the reform is dependent on a specific supply of teachers. It seems difficult enough attracting effective teachers and leaders to work long hours at modest salaries in New Orleans; doing it throughout Louisiana is unrealistic without a major change in the educator labor market. If you're predisposed to liking Bobby Jindal, like I am, this seems like a big deal. But I realize a lot of folks aren't. Is It Unfair to Ask Food-Stamp Recipients to Work? For four years, the number of Americans receiving food stamps has exceeded 45 million. There's a smidgen of good news; the number dropped from to 47.7 million at the end of 2012 to 45.4 million in May. A new report from the Foundation for Government Accountability calculates food-stamp spending is growing ten times as fast as federal revenues. They point the finger at governors who keep requesting and granting exemptions from work requirements: One key cause of this out-of-control spending is the recent explosion of enrollment among able-bodied childless adults. Although federal law requires these adults to work in order to receive food stamps, the Obama administration has awarded an unprecedented number of waivers to states, allowing able-bodied childless adults to receive taxpayer-funded food stamp benefits without working at all. They calculate about 5 million able-bodied childless adults are collecting food stamps; about 1 million were collecting them in 2008. It will probably not surprise you that people are staying on food stamps a lot longer now than a decade ago: In the early 2000s, most childless adults receiving food stamps exited the program within a year. Nearly a third of those childless adults exited within the first six months. For comparison, fewer than six percent were enrolled for eight years or more. But able-bodied childless adults are staying on food stamps far longer now that work requirements have been waived in many states. Most childless adults now stay on food stamps for more than two years. Just 14 percent of childless adults receiving food stamps exit within the first six months. Nearly a quarter of able-bodied childless adults receive food stamps for more than eight years. Restoring work requirements would go a long way toward getting able-bodied adults out of government dependency and back to self-sufficiency. You know who's expressing concerns about Americans becoming excessively dependent upon welfare programs? Caitlyn Jenner. ADDENDA: As of December 2011, Donald Trump was not a registered member of the Republican party; he re-registered with the party in April 2012. | 
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