Democrats are hoping an abortion ballot measure will turn out Floridians in November, helping deliver a win to President Biden and down-ballot candidates in the increasingly red state.
But on the ground in Florida, some members of Biden's coalition are skeptical that even a blowout ballot-initiative victory for abortion-rights advocates will coincide with across-the-board wins for Democratic candidates this fall.
"The key problem would be how you message it in a way that the same people that want to vote for the amendment will go and vote up and down the ticket for Democrats," said Maria-Elena Lopez, who is working to revamp a Miami-Dade Democratic coalition that has trended toward Republicans in recent cycles.
Florida politicos' fixation on abortion this cycle comes after the state supreme court upheld on Monday the state's 15-week limit and allowed a six-week ban — with some exceptions — to go into effect within 30 days. The court also ruled in favor of the Floridians Protecting Freedom committee's effort to put their abortion-related measure on the ballot ahead of November.
"No law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient's health, as determined by the patient's healthcare provider," reads the initiative, which will be called "Amendment 4" at the ballot box. "This amendment does not change the Legislature's constitutional authority to require notification to a parent or guardian before a minor has an abortion."
Republicans are already nervous that the ballot initiative will encourage low-propensity voters to show up to the polls in Florida — already a high-turnout state — and that the effort will draw millions of dollars in out-of-state funds.
"This is going to cause us to have to work harder. There's no question about it," said Peter Feaman, Florida's Republican Party national committeeman . . .
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