You may recall some of our reporting from The Baltic Sea in late 2025, where we embedded with NATO forces tracking the shadow fleet.
Two things to note with this interdiction. First, shadow fleet ships often receive escorts from Russian naval ships or aircraft, even when they are flying another country's flag. Oil and gas are critical to Russia's economy, with NATO forces telling us the shadow fleet is viewed as a "national interest" to Russia.
Second, the fact this ship took up Russian colors Dec. 24 is telling. Seldom do shadow fleet vessels fly the Russian flag. Typically, they opt for so-called "flags of convenience" which are countries like the Marshall Islands or Panama with weak registration systems. This allows them to "flag hop" and switch from one country's colors to another to avoid detection.
The fact the U.S. seized a ship with the Russian flag is a big deal, and my hypothesis is the ship took on the Russian colors late last month mid-pursuit to deter the U.S. and NATO. The Russian submarine in the area would have been a second layer of deterrence.
The U.S. and U.K. proceeded forward anyway. This will make the dynamic between Washington and Moscow, especially amid these talks regarding Ukraine, very interesting.
The seizing of tankers is set to continue as the U.S. views this as their first line of pressure on Venezuela's interim government led by Delcy Rodriguez.
"We obviously have maximum leverage over the interim authorities in Venezuela right now," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. "The president is fully deploying his peace through strength foreign policy agenda. So we're continuing to be in close coordination with the interim authorities, and their decisions are going to continue to be dictated by the United States of America."
President Trump did say the U.S. struck a deal with "the interim authorities in Venezuela [who] will be turning over between 30 and 50 million barrels of high quality, sanctioned oil, to the United States of America. This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as president of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States."
So economic pressure is layer one. If that doesn't work to get Caracas to bend the knee, the second layer would be military pressure.
That's why the U.S. still has 15,000 personnel in the region standing by.
This story will ebb and flow, but not go away.
AN UPDATE ON LESSONS FROM THE FRONT
Some fun news to share. The first few copies of my book Lessons from the Front have arrived in India. It's been very heartwarming to listen to the reviews from readers there.
Bloomsbury is back in stock and Amazon just received a big shipment as well. This project became an Amazon Best Seller and the demand has far exceeded all of our models.
When the book formally publishes in the U.K. and Australia in February, we're hoping the international readership will continue to expand! For those waiting for the audio book, that releases Feb. 10 and you can get it through Audible on the Amazon website directly.
Thanks for making this dream a bigger success than I could have imagined. If you've enjoyed the book, be sure to tell your friends! Amazon and Goodreads reviews also help tremendously.
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