Daily on Defense, presented by Americans for Fusion: Trump gets earful from Putin, CSIS on ‘Russia's grinding war,’ Shutdown offramp, Iran threatened with ‘speed and violence.’

BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

TRUMP'S LATEST PUTIN CALL: President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social last night that he had an hour and 15-minute phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling it a "good conversation," but not one "that will lead to immediate peace."

In the call, Putin apparently complained about Ukraine's latest audacious coordinated drone strike deep into Russia against five airfields that hit 15 warplanes that were parked on the ground, including bombers, fighter jets, and helicopters, according to videos posted on social media. "We discussed the attack on Russia's docked airplanes by Ukraine," Trump wrote. "Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond."

While Putin groused about Ukraine hitting legitimate military targets, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine is bracing for another massive Russian drone and missile attack, which in recent days have hit civilian targets, including apartment buildings and a passenger train.

"We also know that the Russians are preparing a new strike — our intelligence indicates this," Zelensky said in his nightly video address. "Now the United States, Europe, and all our partners have to understand how this discredits diplomatic talks. Every single Russian strike does."

In a reply to Trump's Truth Social post, Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a retired Air Force general, wrote, "Mr. President, Putin attacked Ukrainian cities last night. Ukraine bombs military targets, Russia kills innocent civilians. One is conducting just war, one is conducting immoral war."

RUBIO 'A BRIDGE WE HAVEN'T CROSSED': In his appearance before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the most stubborn obstacle to a ceasefire, and eventual peace agreement, is Russia's demand for the entirety of the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, in particular the rest of Donetsk province which his forces have been unable to wrest from Ukraine's dogged defenses.

The Institute for the Study of War has documented what it called "demonstrable lies and exaggerations about Russian battlefield gains" by Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, which it concludes is an effort to "push Ukraine and the West to concede to the demands that Russia remains unable to achieve militarily."

Putin, Rubio said, has boxed himself in by telling the Russian people his army is having great success, when in reality it's making only slow incremental gains at the cost of horrific casualties. "In the case of Russia, they've been telling their people for two and a half years that they're winning this war overwhelmingly, so people are going to wonder, 'Why are we giving up land if we're winning so strongly?'"

"As you can imagine in Ukraine, the notion that you would even consider a change in land after all that's gone in the war — is difficult," Rubio told the senators. "I know there's active work going on to try to see if both sides' views on that can't be reconciled. It's still a bridge we haven't crossed, it's still a gap, but at least we've been able to narrow down the issue set to one central one … a very difficult one, but nonetheless, it's one that work is going on."

CONTROL OF DONETSK IS 'ONE REMAINING ITEM' IN UKRAINE-RUSSIA PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, RUBIO SAYS

CSIS: "RUSSIA'S GRINDING WAR IN UKRAINE': An exhaustive analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies released yesterday seeks to puncture the myth that "Russia is marching to an inevitable battlefield victory in Ukraine," calling Russia a "declining power" that's suffering "massive losses for tiny gains."

The report titled "Russia's Grinding War in Ukraine" draws three main conclusions:

Russian forces have suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, and missing) and as many as 325,000 killed since February 2022. No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.

Russian forces are advancing at a remarkably slow pace on the battlefield. In the Pokrovsk offensive, for example, Russian troops advanced at an average rate of just 70 meters per day. This is slower than the most brutal offensive campaigns over the last century, including the notoriously bloody Battle of the Somme during World War I. Russian forces have gained less than 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2024.

Russia is becoming a second- or third-rate economic power. Its economy is showing strains because of the war, though it has not buckled. Russian manufacturing is declining, consumer demand is weakening, inflation remains stubbornly high, and the country faces a labor crunch. Economic growth slowed to 0.6 percent in 2025, and Russia continues to fall behind in key technologies such as AI.

READ THE FULL REPORT HERE: RUSSIA'S GRINDING WAR IN UKRAINE

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING TODAY: POSSIBLE OFF RAMP COULD AVOID SHUTDOWN: Senate Democrats and Republicans are still talking past each other in public about the Democrats' threat to force a partial shutdown of the government over demands for reforms in immigration enforcement by ICE, but in private, a possible compromise is taking shape.

"The ironic thing about that obviously is that the DHS funding bill actually, if enacted, would spend less on ICE and some of the other things the Democrats are concerned about," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told reporters yesterday. "It also has important reforms the Democrats have requested, including body cameras. About $20 million in there for that, a couple million dollars in there for de-escalation training, things the Democrats have said that they wanted."

Thune is still pushing for the Senate to vote on a six-bill package that would fully fund the government — including the Pentagon — for this fiscal year, which began last October. "I think the best path forward, as I've said, is to keep the package intact."

Democrats, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), want the DHS bill separated and the agency, which includes FEMA and the TSA, funded with a short-term continuing resolution. "So it's simple to do and I am quite confident it would pass overwhelmingly. Already I've seen six or seven Republicans say they would vote for it," Schumer said. "And then we should sit down and come up with strong proposals to reform ICE and rein in ICE and end the violence."

CHUCK SCHUMER LAYS OUT ICE DEMANDS TO AVOID GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

TRUMP: U.S. READY TO ATTACK IRAN WITH 'SPEED AND VIOLENCE': Yesterday morning President Trump fired off another ominous threat to Iran on his Truth Social platform, hoping to intimidate Iran to make a deal on nuclear weapons, even though he has claimed for months he has claimed last summer's "Midnight Hammer" B-2 bombers strikes "obliterated" Iran's nuclear capability, and no deal was necessary.

"A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela," Trump posted. "Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary."

"Time is running out, it is truly of the essence!" Trump said. "Hopefully Iran will quickly 'Come to the Table' and negotiate a fair and equitable deal," he said — and if not, "The next attack will be far worse! Don't make that happen again."

Iran has threatened to retaliate against any U.S. strike, using its considerable arsenal of short and mid-range ballistic missiles to target U.S. bases in the region and ships in the Gulf and straits of Hormuz.

"We have 30,000 to 40,000 American troops stationed across eight or nine facilities in that region. All are within the reach theoretically — not theoretically, in reality — all are within the reach of an array of thousands of Iranian one-way UAVs and Iranian short-range ballistic missiles that threaten our troop presence," Secretary of State Marco Rubio told senators yesterday. Rubio also said while the U.S. has "enough force and power in the region … to defend against that possibility," the president always "reserves the preemptive defensive option."

"So, I think it's wise and prudent to have a forced posture within the region that could respond and potentially, if necessary, preemptively prevent the attack against thousands of American servicemen and other facilities in the region and our allies."

TRUMP THREATENS ATTACK ON IRAN WORSE THAN 'MIDNIGHT HAMMER' WITH MILITARY BUILDUP IN THE REGION

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Cuba regime change, Iran faltering: Five takeaways from Rubio's testimony to Congress

Washington Examiner: Control of Donetsk is 'one remaining item' in Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations, Rubio says

Washington Examiner: Rubio outlines strategy for restarting diplomatic relations with Venezuela

Washington Examiner: Rubio explains US oversight of Venezuelan oil sales

Washington Examiner: Rubio: 'No one knows' who would take over if Iran's supreme leader is removed

Washington Examiner: Rubio says Trump administration would 'love' to see regime change in Cuba

Washington Examiner: Mexico halts oil shipments to Cuba as Trump eyes regime change

Washington Examiner: Xi Jinping's purge of generals sets grim tone for annual Communist Party meetings

Washington Examiner: Judge cancels ICE director testimony but rips agency's habitual violation of court orders

Washington Examiner: National Guard domestic deployments could cost more than $1 billion in 2026

Washington Examiner: Pentagon eliminates 2,700 rules in yearlong regulation purge

Washington Examiner: Chuck Schumer lays out ICE demands to avoid government shutdown

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump administration misfires on Second Amendment

Washington Examiner: On This Day: The capture of British transports marks a bold moment in the early American Navy

Wall Street Journal: Key Gulf Allies Say They Won't Aid US in an Iran Strike, Limiting Trump's Options

Wall Street Journal: A Battered Iran Is Still Able to Mount a Deadly Response to U.S. Strikes

AP: Starmer and Xi call for deeper UK-China ties as Trump shakes up global relations

The War Zone: Destroyer, Electronic Surveillance Jet Joins US Forces Massing in Middle East

CSIS: Russia's Grinding War in Ukraine

The Economist: Lots of world leaders are attacking Europe. Why?

The Hill: Trump's Deployment of National Guard Costs Taxpayers Nearly $500 Million, CBO Says

DefenseScoop: Air Force Creates Task Force to Improve Counter-Drone Tactics at Bases

Breaking Defense: SPACECOM Chief Cites Army, Marines as Models for Expanding On-Orbit Warfighting Exercises

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Launches Ninth GPS III Satellite amid Push for Resilient PNT

Breaking Defense: SDA Must Be 'More Realistic' About Real Risks in Pricey Satellite Tracking Layer Effort: GAO

Defense News: SWORD Training Platform Key to US Space Superiority, Program Head Says

Defense One: US Military Used New 'Nonkinetic' Cell to Guide Cyber Ops During Maduro Capture

National Defense Magazine: Air Force Leveraging AI for Advanced Wargaming

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force B-1 Bombers, F-15 Fighters Tapped for Super Bowl Flyover

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Rotor Wash Knocked Down and Killed a Spectator at Kadena Event: Report

THE CALENDAR:

THURSDAY | JANUARY 29

8 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: "The Global Implications of the U.S. National Defense Strategy," with Kristine Berzina, GMFUS senior fellow; Sophie Arts, GMFUS fellow; Carrie Lee, GMFUS senior fellow; and Kate Stotesbery, GMFUS managing director of government relations https://www.gmfus.org/event/global-implications-us-national-defense-strategy

8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club Defense R&D Summit, with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Col. Daniel May, chief AI officer for Air Force intelligence at the Air Force Department; and Thomas Rondeau, principal director, FutureG and 5G at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2026-defense-rd-summit/

8:45 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Airpower Forum, with Lt. Gen. Scott Pleus, acting Air Force vice chief of staff; Brig. Gen. Jason Bartolomel, commander, Air Force Research Laboratory; and Lt. Gen. Jason Armagost, deputy commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Lt. Gen. David Harris, deputy chief of staff of Air Force Futures; and Gen. Adrian Spain, commander, Air Combat Command https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/2nd-airpower-forum-26/

10 a.m. 253 Russell — Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee Coast Guard, Maritime, and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing: "The Fleet We Funded: Assessing Coast Guard Force Laydown on the Heels of Historic Investment," with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday http://commerce.senate.gov

12 p.m. — Forecast International virtual event, "Global Defense Spending Snapshot: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook," with Shaun McDougall, lead analyst for U.S. defense markets at Forecast International; Derek Bisaccio, lead analyst for defense markets and strategic analysis at Forecast International; and David Hutchins, moderator & lead analyst for defense systems and strategic analysis at Forecast International https://events.forecastinternational.com/global-defense-spending-snapshot/register/

12 p.m. — New America's Future Security Program virtual book discussion: The Warhead: The Quest to Build the Perfect Weapon, with author Jeffrey E. Stern https://events.newamerica.org/thewarheadthequesttobuildtheperfectweapon

2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group's DefenseOne virtual discussion: "From Skies to Seas: How Drones Are Reshaping The INDOPACOM Challenge" https://events.defenseone.com/from-skies-to-seas-how-drones-are-dominating-indopacom/

3 p.m. 216 Hart — Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the nomination of Army Lt. Gen. Joshua M. Rudd to be director of the National Security Agency. http://intelligence.senate.gov

5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics discussion: "The War in Ukraine — An Update from the Front," with Glenn Corn, IWP faculty member and 34-year veteran of the U.S. intelligence and foreign affairs communities https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-war-in-ukraine-an-update-from-the-front-tickets

8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy and Justice virtual discussion: "Israel, Gaza and the Middle East: What Lies Ahead?," with Dennis Ross, fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former director, policy planning at the State Department; and Warren Olney, host and executive producer, "To the Point" https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/blog/event

FRIDAY | JANUARY 30

9:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies summit: "Exploring Global AI Policy Priorities Ahead of the India AI Impact Summit," with French Ambassador to the U.S. Laurent Bill; Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Vinay Kwatra; Russ Headlee, senior bureau official in the State Department Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy; and Poornima Shenoy, U.S. representative for the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry https://www.csis.org/events/exploring-global-ai-policy-priorities-ahead-india-ai-impact-summit

10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: "Reflections on Russia's Nuclear Behavior: Doctrine vs. Reality," with Mark Schneider, senior analyst, National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, non-resident senior fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/reflections-on-russias-nuclear-behavior

12:45 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies discussion: "Making Sense of Japan's Defense Policy: Continuities, Changes, and Challenges," with Ryo Kiridori, research fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies; and Kuniko Ashizawa, professional lecturer, GWU Elliott School of International Affairs RSVP: [email protected]