| TRUMP: 'VERY GOOD THINGS ARE HAPPENING': On a day when a Russian drone attack left a passenger train car a burning, hulking wreck, killing at least four, possibly eight civilians, President Donald Trump told reporters, "We're looking at some very good things happening on Ukraine and Russia. Very good things are happening." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the deadly strike on the civilian train in the Kharkiv region "purely an act of terrorism." "There is, and can be, no military justification for killing civilians in a train carriage," he said. Trump's upbeat comments seem to refer to the two days of talks in Abu Dhabi earlier this week — face-to-face negotiations by Ukraine and Russia since June — which Zelensky called "constructive." Zelensky said last week that an agreement on security guarantees from the United States is 100% complete and ready to be signed. But London's Financial Times, citing "eight people familiar with the talks," reported the Trump administration is pressuring Ukraine to first agree to a peace deal that would cede all of the eastern Donbas region to Russia, which Russia claims Trump promised Putin in last year's Alaska summit. "The Kremlin is demanding that Ukraine cede the unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast in order to save Russia the time and resources needed to seize it militarily, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a recent assessment, which concluded it would take Russia more than a year and a half fighting to capture, assuming its forces could sustain the current rate of advance. "The Kremlin is attempting to blame Ukraine for delaying the peace process despite Russia's demonstrated unwillingness to offer any compromises on Russia's original war aims," the ISW said. "ISW continues to assess that Russia would need to expend significant amounts of resources, time, and personnel to seize the rest of Donbas." US SECURITY AGREEMENT FOR UKRAINE IS '100% READY' TO BE SIGNED: ZELENSKY ZELENSKY HAS OTHER IDEAS: Zelensky has stubbornly refused to buckle under pressure from U.S. negotiators to give up land that Russia has been unable to take by force, especially because it includes Ukraine's highly effective "Fortress Belt," which has inflicted massive injuries on Russian infantry through sophisticated drone attacks. "Russians have lost in December 1,000 people dead — not seriously wounded, dead — a day. That's over 30,000 in the month of December," NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week at the World Economic Summit in Davos. "In the 1980s in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 20,000 in 10 years. Now they lose 30,000 in one month." In remarks earlier this week, Zelensky suggested Ukraine could force Putin to make peace by killing even more Russian forces. "The task of Ukrainian units is to inflict a level of losses on the occupier at which Russian casualties exceed the amount of reinforcements they are able to send to their forces each month. This is a realistic task," he said. "When we speak of 50,000 Russian losses per month, that is the optimal level. It is a difficult task, without question, but it is precisely the level needed for Russia to begin weighing what it is doing and what it is fighting for." In his nightly video address last night, Zelensky argued that the path to peace lies in inflicting pain on Putin and not making concessions. He pointed to a statement from the U.K. and 13 other European countries that Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of oil tankers would no longer be allowed to sail with impunity in the Baltic and North Seas. "This will greatly help all of us in Europe if Russian revenues are cut even deeper," Zelensky said. "The more difficult it is for Russia, the closer peace becomes." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee at 10 a.m. to testify on "U.S. Policy Towards Venezuela." Rubio will tell Congress that President Trump is prepared to order additional military action if the interim government of acting President Delcy Rodríguez doesn't provide the expected level of cooperation with the United States. "We are prepared to use force to ensure maximum cooperation if other methods fail," Rubio will say, according to prepared opening remarks released by the State Department ahead of the hearing, according to the Associated Press. "It is our hope that this will not prove necessary, but we will never shy away from our duty to the American people and our mission in this hemisphere." Rubio will also push back — as he has done many times publicly — against the criticism from Democrats in Congress that the president had an obligation under the Constitution to seek approval from the legislative branch before launching a military operation against a country that did not pose an imminent threat to the United States. "There is no war against Venezuela, and we did not occupy a country," he will say, according to the prepared remarks. "There are no U.S. troops on the ground. This was an operation to aid law enforcement." RUBIO TO WARN VENEZUELA OF NEW MILITARY ACTION IN CASE RELATIONS GO AWRY TRUMP TELLS IRAQ WHO IT CAN ELECT AS LEADER: It's not enough for President Trump to make endorsements in U.S. elections. As the leader of the world's preeminent superpower, he also likes to weigh in on other countries and use economic coercion to pick winners and losers. His most recent target, Iraq. "I'm hearing that the Great Country of Iraq might make a very bad choice by reinstalling Nouri al-Maliki as Prime Minister. Last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos. That should not be allowed to happen again," Trump posted on his Truth Social platform. "Because of his insane policies and ideologies, if elected, the United States of America will no longer help Iraq and, if we are not there to help, Iraq has ZERO chance of Success, Prosperity, or Freedom." Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of Trump's most consistent backers, was quick to applaud the threat. "As usual Mr. President, you're dead right about what's going on in Iraq. I had a front row seat to the al-Maliki prime ministership — a complete disaster for all concerned," Graham posted on X. "Mr. President, you're right to let Iraq know America has its own interests that have to be protected." "America First requires us to have reliable partners in countries that matter like Iraq. Iraq has a lot of potential still and it's up to the Iraqi people to decide their future," he said. "However, I believe this would be a giant step backward regarding the Iraq-U.S. relationship." "We categorically reject the blatant American interference in Iraq's internal affairs, considering it a violation of its sovereignty and a contravention of the democratic order in Iraq since 2003, as well as an overreach on the decision of the Coordination Framework to select its candidate for the position of Prime Minister," Nouri Al-Maliki posted on X. "Based on my respect for the national will, and the decision of the Coordination Framework endorsed by the Iraqi constitution, I will continue to work until we reach the end, in a manner that achieves the supreme interests of the Iraqi people." TRUMP SAYS US WILL 'NO LONGER HELP' IRAQ IF NOURI AL MALIKI RETURNS TO POWER 'ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL ARMADA FLOATING BEAUTIFULLY TOWARD IRAN:' As the U.S. Air Force announced a "multi-day readiness exercise," in the Middle East, President Trump remained cagey about possible military action against Iran. "There's another beautiful armada floating beautifully toward Iran right now. So we'll see," Trump said on the Will Cain show on Fox News. "I hope they make a deal. I hope they make a deal. They should have made a deal the first time they'd have a country." In an appearance on Sean Hannity's Fox show last night, Lindsey Graham once again praised and supported Trump's threats. "Here's what I think. When Donald Trump promises you something, he will deliver," Graham told Hannity. "To the Iranian people, President Trump has your back. Help will be on the way. I'm not going to say anymore." The Air Force said its airpower exercise in the region is "designed to enhance asset and personnel dispersal capability, strengthen regional partnerships and prepare for flexible response execution throughout CENTCOM." TOM ROGAN OPINION: IMMINENT IRAN IDIOCY THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Rubio to warn Venezuela of new military action in case relations go awry Washington Examiner: Middle East anxiously awaits Trump decision on possible Iran operation Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Imminent Iran idiocy Washington Examiner: Families of two people killed in boat strike sue US Washington Examiner: Trump says US will 'no longer help' Iraq if Nouri al Maliki returns to power Washington Examiner: DHS grapples with PR nightmare after Alex Pretti shooting in Minneapolis Washington Examiner: Democrats draw red line on new ICE guardrails: 'Fix should come from Congress' Washington Examiner: Trump says Alex Pretti wasn't acting as an assassin Washington Examiner: Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski call for Noem's ouster as GOP frustrations grow Washington Examiner: House Democrats tell Trump to fire Noem and threaten impeachment Washington Examiner: Fetterman demands Trump fire Noem in direct appeal: 'Americans have died' Washington Examiner: Opinion: Kristi Noem just can't hack it Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: China's embassy spy base in London poses specific threats AP: North Korea Launches Ballistic Missiles into Sea Between Korean Peninsula and Japan New York Times: Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 2 Million, Study Finds Financial Times: US links security guarantees for Ukraine to peace deal ceding territory Wall Street Journal: Canada's Carney Tells Trump 'I Meant What I Said' in Davos Financial Times: Nato without America: Europe 'thinks the unthinkable' Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Defense Strategy Prioritizes Western Hemisphere. Where Does that Leave the Pacific? Defense News: China Appears Set on Militarizing Another Reef in the South China Sea DefenseScoop: Pentagon Broadens Counter-Drone Authorities in Bid to Shore Up Vulnerable US Bases Breaking Defense: CNO Caudle: Navy Must Launch F/A-XX Program Now to Penetrate Iranian Airspace in 10 Years Defense One: Air Force Mum on Details of Mideast Exercise amid Military Buildup The War Zone: B-21 Raider Future Insights from Global Strike Command's Top General Air & Space Forces Magazine: Contract to Expand B-21 Production Coming by March Aviation Week: USAF Planning for up to Eight E-4C 'Doomsday' Aircraft Air & Space Forces Magazine: Boeing Takes First KC-46 Charge Since 2024 Air & Space Forces Magazine: Realistic Expectations for Golden Dome by 2028 The War Zone: Navy Is Flying Air Force F-35A Joint Strike Fighters Politico: There's More to Greg Bovino's Coat Than You Think THE CALENDAR: WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 28 8 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl., NW — Clarion Defence and the Hudson Institute 2026 Apex Defense Conference, with Jeff Frankston, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial base resilience; and Vice Adm. Michael Vernazza, commander, Naval Information Forces, CONTACT: [email protected] [Note: Register at https://apex-2026.reg.buzz/ 8:15 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: "Accelerating the Mission: Delivering Deterrence with Urgency," with updates from U.S. Strategic Command https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2026/ 2:30 p.m. 232A Russell — Senate Armed Services Cybersecurity Subcommittee hearing: "The Department's Cyber Force Generation Plan and the Associated Implementation Plan," with Air Force Brig. Gen. R. Ryan Messer, deputy director for global operations, J3 Joint Staff; Army Lt. Gen. William Hartman, acting commander, U.S. Cyber Command, performing the duties of director, National Security Agency and acting chief of the Central Security Service; and Assistant Defense Secretary for Cyber Policy Katherine Sutton http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 3 p.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "2026 National Defense Authorization Act," with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council RSVP: [email protected] THURSDAY | JANUARY 29 8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club Defense R&D Summit, with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Col. Daniel May, chief AI officer for Air Force intelligence at the Air Force Department; and Thomas Rondeau, principal director, FutureG and 5G at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2026-defense-rd-summit/ 8:45 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Airpower Forum, with Lt. Gen. Scott Pleus, acting Air Force vice chief of staff; Brig. Gen. Jason Bartolomel, commander, Air Force Research Laboratory; and Lt. Gen. Jason Armagost, deputy commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Lt. Gen. David Harris, deputy chief of staff of Air Force Futures; and Gen. Adrian Spain, commander, Air Combat Command https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/2nd-airpower-forum-26/ 10 a.m. 253 Russell — Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee Coast Guard, Maritime, and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing: "The Fleet We Funded: Assessing Coast Guard Force Laydown on the Heels of Historic Investment," with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday http://commerce.senate.gov 12 p.m. — Forecast International virtual event, "Global Defense Spending Snapshot: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook," with Shaun McDougall, lead analyst for U.S. defense markets at Forecast International; Derek Bisaccio, lead analyst for defense markets and strategic analysis at Forecast International; and David Hutchins, moderator & lead analyst for defense systems and strategic analysis at Forecast International https://events.forecastinternational.com/global-defense-spending-snapshot/register/ 12 p.m. — New America's Future Security Program virtual book discussion: The Warhead: The Quest to Build the Perfect Weapon, with author Jeffrey E. Stern https://events.newamerica.org/thewarheadthequesttobuildtheperfectweapon 2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group's DefenseOne virtual discussion: "From Skies to Seas: How Drones Are Reshaping The INDOPACOM Challenge" https://events.defenseone.com/from-skies-to-seas-how-drones-are-dominating-indopacom/ 5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics discussion: "The War in Ukraine — An Update from the Front," with Glenn Corn, IWP faculty member and 34-year veteran of the U.S. intelligence and foreign affairs communities https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-war-in-ukraine-an-update-from-the-front-tickets 8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy and Justice virtual discussion: "Israel, Gaza and the Middle East: What Lies Ahead?," with Dennis Ross, fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former director, policy planning at the State Department; and Warren Olney, host and executive producer, "To the Point" https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/blog/event FRIDAY | JANUARY 30 9:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies summit: "Exploring Global AI Policy Priorities Ahead of the India AI Impact Summit," with French Ambassador to the U.S. Laurent Bill; Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Vinay Kwatra; Russ Headlee, senior bureau official in the State Department Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy; and Poornima Shenoy, U.S. representative for the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry https://www.csis.org/events/exploring-global-ai-policy-priorities-ahead-india-ai-impact-summit 10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: "Reflections on Russia's Nuclear Behavior: Doctrine vs. Reality," with Mark Schneider, senior analyst, National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, non-resident senior fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/reflections-on-russias-nuclear-behavior 12:45 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies discussion: "Making Sense of Japan's Defense Policy: Continuities, Changes, and Challenges," with Ryo Kiridori, research fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies; and Kuniko Ashizawa, professional lecturer, GWU Elliott School of International Affairs RSVP: [email protected] | | | | "Forcing Ukraine to give up more territory to the invading Russians will be Trump's Munich 1938 moment. Don't do it. It rewards the invader and like Hitler did in 1939, Putin will come back for more land later. This is very WEAK negotiating by the U.S. side." | | Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), in a post on X, reacting to a report in the Financial Times that Trump's team is pressuring Ukraine to give the whole Donbas region to Russia in return for U.S. security guarantees |
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