Leland Vittert’s War Notes: Not a Referendum (on Trump)

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NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight's 9 p.m. ET show, delivered straight to your inbox.

Not a Referendum (on Trump) 🤷🏼‍♂️

Editor's note📝: Tune in tonight at 7 p.m. ET for special Election Day coverage with me, Chris Cuomo, Elizabeth Vargas and Chris Stirewalt.

Warning🚨: Be careful of those promising big (instant) takeaways from tonight — what will really matter are the margins in swing counties and precincts.

👀Be careful about those making big prognostications this is good or bad for any group.
📊Tonight is really about the data.
- Coffee☕️: It will take late into tonight for enough data to come through in a statistically significant way — we will be with you for it all.
Likely outcomes📤: Below are the likely outcomes and the questions I'll be thinking about — please play along with us at home.
- 🏆Zohran Mamdani wins big in New York.
  - 💭Questions —
    - 🤷🏼‍♂️Did Trump's endorsement make a difference for Cuomo?
      - 👀Look at the Republican-heavy areas of Staten Island.
    - ‼️Demographics of Mamdani support
      - 🤷🏼‍♂️Which groups does Mamdani's socialism play the best with?
        ❓What happens to largely Jewish precincts?
        ❓What about the wealthy enclaves?
        🏠Older and younger neighborhoods
    - ❓Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's congressional district
- 🥇Abigail Spanberger wins Virginia governor by a bigger margin than Harris did.
  - 💭Questions —
    - 🤷🏼‍♂️Did Spanberger just turn out more folks in traditionally blue counties, especially around the District, or did she meaningfully change the percentages in southwestern and rural Virginia?
    - 🪖What happens around Hampton Rhodes and Norfolk, the military heavy areas of southeastern Virginia?
    - 💬How big are Spanberger's coattails to bring along Democrat attorney general candidate and deranged texter Jay Jones?
- 🏆Mikie Sherrill wins New Jersey governor by a bigger margin than Trump did
  - 💭Questions —
    - 👨🏼‍💻What happens to the working-class votes in the New York suburbs?
      - 🤷🏼‍♂️Subset — what happens to the nonwhite male vote?
        👀Do minority women turn out for Sherrill in greater numbers than they did for Kamala Harris?
      - 🚜What about rural New Jersey — yes, it exists.
    - 👀How close does Ciattarelli get to Trump's margin overall?
- 🥇Prop 50 wins in California
  - 💭Questions —
    - 📊Does Prop 50 win by a smaller or larger margin than Harris did in California?
    - ❓Did voter turnout and margins stay consistent through both Democratic and Republican counties vs. 2024?

☝🏼Before you go — one of the smartest observers of politics and the human condition texted me earlier.

📱He is admittedly a partisan Republican and texted —
- 👀Republicans who think Mamdani's election is a windfall for the midterms should be careful what they wish for.
  - 🤦🏼‍♂️His election will also encourage similarly radical socialist and kleptocratic candidates to run in other major cities, and they will win.
  - 🌆America's cities don't work: Housing is unaffordable, wages don't keep up, and the socialist and kleptocratic politics of envy are resonating in deep blue places.
- ‼️Rather than a windfall for Republicans, it could turbocharge the ongoing, anti-American DSA takeover of the Democratic Party in major urban areas nationwide.
To his point☝🏼: Things change, and one never worries about the right thing.
- Proof🤷🏼‍♂️: Imagine last year, after Trump's victory, if I told you a Hamas-adjacent, free-bus ride, rent-freezing, state-run grocery store socialist would be elected mayor of New York City.

Elections have consequences — we don't always know what they are.

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Every night during On Balance, Leland Vittert asks "why?" about the most pressing matters of the day, with an intellectual, balanced and sometimes irreverent take on the news.

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