Daily on Defense: Putin plays his ‘Trump’ card, Trump wants Zelensky to ‘settle,’ countdown to shutdown, and Canada’s new PM thumbs nose at Trump

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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PUTIN'S POWER PLAY: Emboldened by President Donald Trump’s suspension of military aid and intelligence to Ukraine, Russian forces have stepped up the pace of air attacks and redoubled efforts to take back captured territory in the Kursk region in what appears to be an attempt to solidify its battlefield position ahead of a forced surrender by Kyiv.

Ukrainian troops in the field suspect that the U.S. is not just hurting Ukraine, but helping Russian forces in the Kursk region, who seem to have new intelligence about Ukrainian positions as they attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces and retake the tiny sliver of Russian territory that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hoped to use as one of his few bargaining chips in any peace negotiation. Ukrainian soldiers in the border region have complained on X that they come under instant heavy attack as soon as they activate their Starlink terminals. 

"Throughout this week, Russia has carried out hundreds of attacks against our people using various types of weapons: around 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 attack drones, and over 80 missiles of different types," Zelensky posted on X over the weekend, ahead of a scheduled trip to Saudi Arabia today. Zelensky said a Saturday attack in Dobropillya, a city in the Donetsk region, was "one of the most brutal" striking civilians targets, including nine residential buildings, a shopping center, and killing 11 people. 

UKRAINIAN FORCES IN KURSK NEAR COLLAPSE AFTER RUSSIAN FORCES LAUNCH SURPRISE ASSAULT THROUGH GAS PIPELINE

TRUMP: 'NOBODY REALLY HAS THE CARDS': While Ukrainians believe Trump is trying to ensure they don't have any "cards" to play in negotiations, the president insisted he's playing it right down the middle. 

"We want to do anything we can to get Ukraine to be serious about getting something done," he told reporters on Air Force One last night. "I say they don’t have the cards. Nobody really has the cards. Russia doesn’t have the cards … What you have to do is you have to make a deal, and you have to stop the killing. It’s a senseless war, and we’re going to get it stopped."

On Friday, asked by a reporter, "Why not provide Ukraine with air defenses?" Trump admitted it's because he wants Ukraine to give up the fight. "I have to know that they want to settle. I don’t know that they want to settle. If they don’t want to settle, we’re out of there, because we want them to settle."

Trump also acknowledged that Putin was using the "pause" to press his advantage on the battlefield. "He’s hitting them harder than he’s been hitting them. And I think probably anybody in that position would be doing that right now," he said. "It’s crazy. They’re taking tremendous punishment. I don’t quite get it."

"I think both parties want to settle. I think if I wasn’t President, this war would have had no chance of settlement, zero chance. But I think we’re going to get it settled and stopped. We got to stop — they’re losing on average 2,000 soldiers a week," Trump said, referring to both Russian and Ukrainian casualties. "I want them to want peace right now … right now, they haven’t shown it to the extent they should.”

TRUMP THREATENS NEW SANCTIONS AND TARIFFS ON RUSSIA TO FORCE PEACE TALKS

KULEBA: 'WE ARE LEARNING HOW TO LIVE WITHOUT AMERICA': While Zelensky is putting on a brave face and scrambling to unite European allies to fill the gaps left by America's pullback, the mood in Ukraine is turning both grim and defiant.

"There is a great deal of frustration. There is a sense of being abandoned. There is also a feeling of a certain surge in patriotism, like we have to come closer to each other. We have to stand united. But overall, we are learning how to live without America," former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, said Sunday on CNN

"Ukraine does not feel immediate effect of the suspension of arms delivery and intel sharing so far," Kuleba said. "The moment will come when, because of the shortage of intel sharing our army will not be able to counter Russian actions as efficiently as it used to…The moment will come when we will run out of Patriot interceptors, and we won’t be able to intercept Russian ballistic missiles hitting our energy facilities and peaceful cities. This is how civilians are going to feel the impact."

"Two things that Ukraine needs more than anything else, it’s something that Europe will not be able to provide within a short-term perspective. And these are Patriot interceptors to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, and intelligence," Kuleba said. "With all my respect to French, British, and German intelligence, I highly appreciate their efforts. But you know, they all — let’s be honest, they all relied on American intelligence for decades, so they cannot. This is not the capability that you can build in a blink of an eye.

"Let me be clear on this. The longer we fight without America’s support, the longer Europe is making up its mind on how to provide necessary practical assistance to Ukraine, the more visible consequences of the suspension of deliveries and sharing by the U.S. will become," Kuleba said. "But under these circumstances, we can only hope, and Ukraine will be pushing as hard as it can to make Europe act fast because it’s really like every day counts. It’s not an exaggeration."

VANCE REBUKES PRO-UKRAINE PROTESTERS FOR 'CHASING' HIS DAUGHTER

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING THIS WEEK: COUNTDOWN TO SHUTDOWN: With just days to go before Friday's funding deadline, House Republicans have given up on passing a budget for the fiscal year that ends Sept. 30 and are now pushing a so-called "clean" continuing resolution that would freeze federal government spending at current levels with a couple of notable exceptions. 

The 99-page House bill would boost the defense budget a modest $6 billion (far from the $150 billion increase Republicans such as Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) have been pushing for) while cutting nondefense programs would decrease by about $13 billion.

Democrats oppose the measure, which they argue would give Elon Musk a free hand to continue dismantling the federal government. "It gives almost unfettered discretion to Donald Trump and the Executive Branch and Elon Musk to move money around however they want," Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY) said on CNN last week. "So, this is a 'stopgap' that is really just designed to give Elon Musk even more power to do his chainsaw routine on the federal government."

Without the vote of Democrats, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can afford to lose one vote from his caucus, many of whom have opposed the idea of funding the government through continuing resolution in the past. 

Any break in solidarity among House Republicans could result in a government shutdown, which Johnson and President Trump are ready to pin on the Democrats. "Democrats just don't get the irony," Johnson posted on X. "They love to remind the American people of the perils of a government shutdown. BUT they're opposing a clean CR that would keep the government open."

"Democrats will do anything they can to shut down our Government, and we can't let that happen. We have to remain UNITED — NO DISSENT — Fight for another day when the timing is right. VERY IMPORTANT. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" Trump posted on Truth Social. Yesterday, Trump said a shutdown "could happen." 

"I mean, the Democrats want that. They want to destroy the country," Trump said.  

LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYS SPENDING BILL IS 'TERRIBLE' ON DEFENSE, BORDER

OH CANADA: Former central banker and former Goldman Sachs executive Mark Carney has won the election to lead Canada’s liberal party in a landslide, which means he will become the next prime minister. 

Carney, 59, is a political neophyte, but his campaign caught fire as the Canadian electorate was galvanized against President Trump's tariff war against America's former friendly neighbor to the north. In his victory speech last night, he came out swinging against the U.S. president.

"Donald Trump, as we know, has put … unjustified tariffs on what we build, on what we sell, on how we make a living. He’s attacking Canadian families, workers, and businesses, and we cannot let him succeed. And we won't," Carney said, adding Canada would now seek “new trading relationships with reliable trading partners."

"My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect," he said. "We will ensure that all the proceeds from our tariffs will be used to protect our workers."

"Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer," he added, "Canada never ever will be part of America in any way, shape, or form. We didn't ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves."

MARK CARNEY WINS CANADA ELECTION TO BECOME TRUDEAU'S SUCCESSOR

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Trump threatens new sanctions and tariffs on Russia to force peace talks

Washington Examiner: Ukrainian forces in Kursk near collapse after Russian forces launch surprise assault through gas pipeline

Washington Examiner: Vance rebukes pro-Ukraine protesters for 'chasing' his daughter

Washington Examiner: Trump floats nuclear deal talks in letter to Iranian leader

Washington Examiner: Trump lauds House spending bill, urges GOP united front

Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham says spending bill is 'terrible' on defense, border

Washington Examiner: Mark Carney wins Canada election to become Trudeau's successor

Washington Examiner: Trump cites China’s ‘100-year perspective’ in dismissing economic concerns

Washington Examiner: FBI arrests active-duty soldiers accused of selling military secrets to China

Washington Examiner: Tom Cotton warns the US could lose a war with China

Washington Examiner: Trump offers citizenship to South African farmers 'seeking to flee' as USAID is pulled

Washington Examiner: Texas opens Eagle Pass park to Border Patrol after yearlong lockout

Washington Examiner: Abbott's border buoys scheme pays off after nearly sinking under Biden

Washington Examiner: Enola Gay falls victim to Pentagon DEI purge

Washington Examiner: Air Force intercepts aircraft flying in a restricted zone near Mar-a-Lago

Washington Examiner: Secret Service shoots armed man near White House

Washington Examiner: DHS ends collective bargaining agreement with thousands of TSA employees

Washington Examiner: Trump lauds House spending bill, urges GOP united front 

Defense One: '5 Bullet Points' Email Now a Weekly Task for Pentagon Civilians

Reuters: Poland mulls enshrining defense spending, plans army training for all men

Bloomberg: Boeing's Legacy Vanished Into Thin Air. Saving It Will Take Years

Breaking Defense: Hegseth Signs Memo Pushing Forward Software Acquisition Pathway Expansion

Washington Post: Justice Dept. ousts national security officials in latest purge

AP: North Korea fires several ballistic missiles after the US and South Korea began military drills

Wall Street Journal: US Bolsters Position as World's Top Arms Exporter

AP: Israel cuts off electricity supply to Gaza, affecting a desalination plant producing drinking water

Air & Space Forces Magazine: SDA Delays Next Launches, This Time to Late Summer

Air & Space Forces Magazine: X-37B Spaceplane Showed New Techniques in Latest Flight

The War Zone: B-21 Aerial Refueling Demands Further Point to It Being a Stealthy Flying Gas Can

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Secretly Tested Sensors that Alert When China Is Watching

Air & Space Forces Magazine: How One Air Force General Explains Information Warfare — Using FootballMilitary.com: Moving Headaches Lead Military to Slow New Household Shipping Program

THE CALENDAR: 

MONDAY | MARCH 10 

10:30 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual policy forum: “Gaza Phase 2: Sorting Out the Political and Security Scenarios,” with Harel Chorev, senior researcher at the Tel Aviv University Moshe Dayan Center; Tamar Hermann, academic director at the Israel Democracy Institute’s Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research; Ghaith al-Omari, WINEP senior fellow, co-author of a report titled “Reforming the Palestinian Authority: A Roadmap for Change” and former adviser to the Palestinian Authority; and David Schenker, senior fellow and director of the WINEP Rubin Program on Arab Politics https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

11 a.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion: “Navigating the Gray Zone – Strategies to Address Hybrid Warfare,” with James Appathurai, deputy assistant NATO secretary-general for innovation, hybrid, and cyber; Max Boot, CFR senior fellow for national security studies; Linda Lourie, former White House assistant director for research and technology security, and principal at WestExec Advisers; and Christopher Isham, president of C\T Group Intelligence USA https://tinyurl.com/mwnm5d4d

1 p.m. Los Angeles, California — RAND Corporation discussion: “The U.S.-Japan Alliance Under New Management," with Japanese Consul General in Los Angeles Kenko Sone; and retired Air Force Gen. Rick Rupp, former commander of U.S. Forces Japan https://www.rand.org/events/2025/03/the-us-japan-alliance.html

TUESDAY | MARCH 11

9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Stabilizing the Military Health System to Prepare for Large-Scale Combat Operations,” with testimony from Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Douglas Robb, former director of the Defense Health Agency; retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Paul Friedrichs, former Joint Staff surgeon; and Air Force Reserve Col. Jeremy Cannon, professor of surgery at the Perelman School of Medicine University of Pennsylvania http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: "The State of U.S. Shipbuilding," with testimony from Brett Seidle, assistant secretary of the navy for research, development and acquisition; Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons, Congressional Budget Office; Shelby Oakley, director, contracting and national security acquisitions, Government Accountability Office; and Ronald O'Rourke, naval affairs analyst, Congressional Research Service https://armedservices.house.gov/calendar/

10:20 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “Shaping the Future: The U.S.-Republic of Korea Relationship in 2025 and Beyond,” with Joon Kyung Choi, South Korean special presidential envoy and ambassador for investment and industrial cooperation; Derrick Morgan, executive vice president of Heritage; Anthony Kim, Heritage research fellow; Brent Sadler, senior research fellow at the Heritage Center for National Security; and Jack Spencer, Heritage senior research fellow for energy and environmental policy https://www.heritage.org/global-politics/event/shaping-the-future-the-us-republic-korea

10:30 a.m. 2362-A Rayburn — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: “Innovative Techniques in Military Construction,” with testimony from Dave Morrow, director of military programs at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; Keith Hamilton, chief engineer, Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command; Thomas Healy, CEO, Hyliion Incorporated; and Brent Richardson, principal research scientist of energy, infrastructure and environment at the Center for Naval Analysis http://appropriations.house.gov

2 p.m. 2200 Rayburn —House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe hearing: ""Arms Control, International Security, and U.S. Assistance to Europe: Review and Reforms for the State Department," with testimony from Yleem Poblete, PhD, former assistant secretary, State Department Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance; Daniel Kochis, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and James O'Brien, former assistant secretary, State Department Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/arms-control

2 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Strategic Deterrence in the Information Age: Why China’s Approach is Different,” with Mallory Stewart, former assistant secretary of state for arms control, deterrence, and stability; Pranay Vaddi, senior nuclear fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Tong Zhao, senior fellow at Carnegie China; and Fiona Cunningham, nonresident scholar at the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/02/strategic-deterrence

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “U.S.-India Relations in the Trump 2.0 Era: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Road Ahead,” with Ashley Tellis, chair on strategic affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Aparna Pande, Hudson research fellow on India and South Asia https://www.hudson.org/events/motwani-jadeja-us-india-dialogue

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 12

10 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “From Special Relationship to Strategic Partnership: The Future of U.S.-Israel Relations,” with House Foreign Affairs Chairman Brian Mast (R-FL); Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter; and Ilan Berman, senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “A New Approach to America’s Role in the World,” with House Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith (D-WA); and Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/events/a-new-approach-to-americas-role-in-the-world/

12 p.m. — Cato Institute discussion: "The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong's Greatest Dissident, and China's Most Feared Critic," with Mark Clifford, author and president, Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation; Sebastien Lai, son of Jimmy Lai; Mark Simon, former group director, Next Digital Companies; and Ian Vasquez, vice president for international studies, Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/events/troublemaker

2 p.m. 1333 H St. NW — Center for American Progress discussion: “Congressional Response to Trump’s National Security Chaos,” with House Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith (D-WA) https://www.americanprogress.org/events/congressional-response-to-trump

3 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The role of the Panama Canal in a new era of U.S.-Panama ties,” with Ricaurte Vasquez Morales, administrator of the Panama Canal Authority https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-role-of-the-panama-canal

THURSDAY | MARCH 13 

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “War in Ukraine and Lessons for Asia,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, director of the Hoover Institution’s Institute for International Studies; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair; Mark Lippert, CSIS Korea chair; and Andy Lim, CSIS Korea chair https://www.csis.org/events/war-ukraine-and-lessons-asia-capital-cable-108

11 a.m. — Wilson Center Global Europe Program virtual discussion: “Germany’s Election Aftermath: Implications for Foreign Policy,” with Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute of Berlin; Christoph von Marschall, chief diplomatic correspondent at Der Tagesspiegel; and Robin Quinville, director of the WWC Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/germanys-election-aftermath

2 p.m. — Defense One virtual discussion: “State of Defense 2025: Navy and Marines,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin; Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman; and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith https://events.defenseone.com/state-of-defense

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"The United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally. Their closest friend. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense."
Justin Trudeau, outgoing Canadian Prime Minister
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