Dear Weekend Jolter,
In the corporate boardroom of Terror Inc., the executives of evil are bracing shareholders for the end of a very bad quarter. "The resistance front has had a really hard year," Iran's foreign minister conceded last weekend on state television, in the wake of Bashar al-Assad's toppling in former ally Syria. Unnamed Iranian officials reportedly acknowledge the government is "disorientated" and "befuddled," amid an internal backlash.
As Jim Geraghty noted in the Morning Jolt, "It's very rare that you hear an American enemy just come out and admit that it's a rebuilding year."
This year has, in fact, been a devastating stretch for Tehran. The regime's ability to exert its influence beyond Iran's borders is significantly constrained at 2024’s end, and, while the theocracy could yet regain regional influence, it's fair to say that the concatenation of events that led to Tehran's diminishment began on October 7, 2023. Hamas's assault emboldened the world's anti-Israel actors, including in the West, but Israel's resulting counteroffensive has been ruinous for any terrorist entity or sponsor that engaged.
The biggest loser in the latest turn of this saga, Jim writes, has to be Iran:
How would you like to be Ayatollah Khamenei right now?
Your most important proxy regime in Damascus has collapsed, Hamas's Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah are all dead, and both terrorist organizations are a shadow of their former selves; Israel has figured out how to kill your top nuclear scientist with an AI-assisted killer robot; nobody wants to buy a used Apollo pager; two waves of Iranian rocket attacks on Israel earlier this year did minimal damage; Bibi Netanyahu is all smiles; Iran continues to experience shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity; the government doesn't have enough money to pay its pensions; and Donald Trump is about to come back as the U.S. commander in chief — and he's going to "make Iran broke again," in the words of former State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus.
Iran's foreign minister is correct; it has been a tough year for his government. In addition to Israel's attacks on Iranian targets, its decapitation of the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah crippled Iran's regional allies, in turn making it more difficult for the regime to prop up Assad (though their alliance had been cracking anyway). With Assad driven out of the picture, Iran has, for now, lost its most important state-level ally in the region and its land route to Hezbollah, weakening that axis further.
It’s hard to imagine that all of this would have happened, and so quickly, had Hamas decided to stay home on October 7 last year. Instead, the terror mafia decided to invade Israel, unleash sadists on the civilian population, and subject Gazans to the inevitable war that would follow, in turn drawing in regional allies who would then become targets. "The Islamic Republic thought that Hamas's 7 Oct. attack was a turning point in history. That's true, but in the entirely opposite direction to what it hoped for," Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project, told the Wall Street Journal. Speaking with the BBC, James Jeffrey, a former longtime diplomat, described Iran's situation as "a totally unprecedented collapse of a regional hegemon."
One could even make the case that Donald Trump's recapture of the American presidency was aided, at least a little, by the political aftermath of October 7. The war in Gaza divided the Democratic coalition, pitting the far Left against moderates in the party; protests on campuses and in major U.S. cities by so-called progressives quickly turned antisemitic, hurting the Democratic brand among mainstream voters; and, as Phil Klein wrote in the most recent issue of NR, the environment made some Jewish Americans "more open to voting for Republicans." While the data can be contradictory, Phil noted, "the preponderance of evidence from the results in heavily Jewish areas pointed toward a shift in Trump's direction."
Though many other issues were almost certainly more determinative in the election's outcome than Israel and the Jewish vote, the likelihood that October 7 hurt the American Left politically points to yet another way Iran's interests were harmed by Hamas's invasion. That is to say: Don't expect to find a Robert Malley type in the incoming Trump administration.
Even with Iran isolated, however, and the Syrian people at last able to bury a monstrous regime that tortured and killed, hopes for a new Syria must be "tempered by trepidation," as NR's editorial cautions. "The Assads can go to hell — Moscow will suffice for now," Jeff Blehar writes — and reminds the optimists that the insurgents' leader previously headed up al-Qaeda's Syria affiliate. A wounded and weakened Iran could also turn out to be even more dangerous, more determined than ever to build a nuclear bomb.
Jim, again:
The good news is the Iranian mullahs are absolutely screwed. The bad news is the Iranian mullahs are probably getting increasingly desperate.
NAME. RANK. LINK.
EDITORIALS
On Syria: The Fall of Assad
On the Penny verdict: Justice for Daniel Penny
Here's a better idea than a "refund": Hochul's Inflationary 'Inflation Refund'
We hope it works out: Godspeed to DOGE
ARTICLES
Noah Rothman: Four Syria Myths Busted by the Assad Regime's Collapse
Noah Rothman: Maybe They Just Like Violence
Christian Schneider: We Are Living in a Comic Book
Charles C. W. Cooke: Elizabeth Warren Is a Disaster for the Democrats
Haley Strack: 'I Feel Betrayed': Who Will Speak Up for the Israeli Women Held Hostage by Hamas?
Abigail Anthony & Caroline Downey: U.K. Bans Puberty Blockers for Gender-Confused Children Indefinitely
James Lynch: Daniel Penny Acquitted in Subway Chokehold Death of Homeless Man
Brittany Bernstein: Massachusetts Teachers' Union Cost Students Learning Time with Wild Strike Demands, Outraged Parents Say
Rich Lowry: Trump Should Swear Off Lawfare
Jeffrey Blehar: What Happened in South Korea Last Week Was Far Crazier Than You Realized
David Smolansky: Maduro's Regime Has Turned the Argentine Embassy into a Prison for Opposition Leaders
David Zimmermann: The Offshore Wind Industry Thrived under Biden. Trump Plans to Pull the Plug
Becket Adams: The Six Stages of Grief for Biden Boosters
Andrew Stuttaford: The Gift of Freedom
Jack Butler: Lee Edwards, R.I.P.
CAPITAL MATTERS
Another warning on the tariff scheme, from Scott Lincicome & Adam Michel: Paying for Trump Tax Cuts with Trump Tariffs Doesn't Make Sense
LIGHTS. CAMERA. REVIEW.
Praise, from Armond White: Mike Leigh's Transcendent Hard Truths
Brian Allen returns to the Met's enchanting tribute to Sienese style: Experiencing Siena in Paint, Ivory, Marble, and Gold
IF THESE EXCERPTS SEEM SMALLER TO YOU, BLAME SHRINKFLATION
So, of course, Elizabeth Warren eagerly joined the online mob offering ad hoc justifications for the murder of a health-insurance CEO. Charles C. W. Cooke uses this as a teachable moment for Democrats:
Contrast Warren's words with those from her fellow Democratic senator, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. About the murderer, Fetterman said, "He's the asshole that's going to die in prison." About those celebrating him online, Fetterman said, "A sewer is going to sewer: that's what social media is about." About the mainstream press's sympathetic takes, Fetterman said, "I don't know why the media wants to turn that into a story, just with these trolls saying these kinds of things anonymously like that." His conclusion was perfect: "Remember," Fetterman advised, "he has two children that are going to grow up without their father. It's vile. And if you've gunned someone down that you don't happen to agree with their views or the business that they're in, hey, you know, I'm next, they're next, he's next, she's next."
Americans seeking good examples should resolve to be a Fetterman rather than a Warren.
The results of the 2024 elections have accorded the Democrats the opportunity to wonder who they are and to debate who they ought to be. The contrast on display between John Fetterman and Elizabeth Warren might be useful in that endeavor. Broadly speaking, the Elizabeth Warrens of the world do not help the Democrats win power or advance their ideas. Broadly speaking, the John Fettermans of the world help to achieve both. Were an alien to descend into America in the hope of discerning some patterns in our politics, one trend he would swiftly sniff out is that the country does not much like aloof Massachusetts progressives. . . .
As a matter of fact, one can construct a plausible case that Elizabeth Warren and her batty worldview are directly responsible for many of the Democrats' current woes. It was Warren's lurch into extremism that inspired Kamala Harris to adopt many of the positions she promulgated in 2019 — positions that Harris struggled to shed during this year's presidential election. And it was the coterie of Warren-inspired White House staffers who successfully seized the moderate Joe Biden after his winning 2020 campaign and transformed him into a myopically left-wing president whom a majority of Americans came to loathe. It should perhaps have been obvious that Warren was a crank when she started tweeting out sentiments such as, "Black trans and cis women, gender-nonconforming, and nonbinary people are the backbone of our democracy" without having first been threatened with waterboarding. But if it was not clear then, the consequences of her influence have now made the indictment clear. Warren is a disaster for her party, a disaster for America, and a disaster for the basic human decency that we are entitled to expect from our politicians — no ifs or buts apply.
Haley Strack spoke with the families of Hamas hostages whose plight has been all but ignored by so-called women's groups:
Their names are Shiri Bibas, Romi Gonen, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy, Karina Ariev, Emily Tehila Damari, Liri Albag, Doron Steinbrecher, Ofra Keidar, Inbar Hayman, Arbel Yehud, Agam Berger, and Judih Weinstein Haggai (a U.S. citizen). Terrorists murdered Haggai, Hayman, and Keidar on, or shortly after, October 7 and have refused to return their bodies to Israel. The rest of the women are believed to be somewhere in Gaza, likely dozens of meters underground in Hamas tunnels.
Yarden Gonen, Romi's eldest sister, has advocated her sister's release since October 7. A nurse, Yarden has been shocked by the ways in which the medical and international women's communities have ignored the female hostages, she told National Review.
"I feel betrayed from the medical world and from the women's world in ways that I never imagined that I would feel — and I don't know how other women, or how other medical professions, are not feeling the same way as I do," Yarden said. "I don't hear the medical world stating enough what it means to be a hostage in the conditions in Gaza, or what it means to be kidnapped 431 days ago by terrorists. The infections, the diseases, the immune system, my sister's gunshot wound — why aren't they speaking on behalf of innocent people? And why have none of the international women's organizations said anything?"
Romi was shot in the arm on October 7 while trying to escape from the Nova music festival. Terrorists dragged her by her hair, then by her wounded arm, into a car that carted her to Gaza. Women's organizations may have spoken about the hostages once or twice, Yarden said. But that's not enough.
The women in Gaza have been held captive long enough to experience about 15 menstrual cycles. Testimonies from released hostages describe the conditions that hostages endure: occasional, and cold, saltwater sponge baths; no changes of clothes; near constant supervision, including in the restroom. Testimonies have also corroborated what was known but ignored by many in the international community on October 7 — that women and men have been raped and sexually assaulted in captivity.
"These are monsters that are currently holding my sister. They're starving everyone, they're mentally and physically abusing everyone, and they are sexually abusing everyone," Yarden said. . . .
Hostage families believe that their voices may be the only tools powerful enough to save their loved ones. And although many women's organizations, including UN Women, are eager to publicize accounts of gender-based violence and sexual atrocities, they are so far unwilling to help publicize the stories of the remaining female hostages and the dozens of released female hostages.
Delegations of families of those held captive have asked to meet with UN Women staff members. They have been turned away.
NR's editorial on the Daniel Penny verdict:
On the fifth day of deliberations, with Manhattan's elected progressive Democratic district attorney Alvin Bragg taking desperate measures in his crusade to nail him, the Marine veteran was acquitted of homicide by the jury in the trial over the death of Jordan Neely.
Penny was a subway passenger on the F train in May 2023 when Neely, a deranged criminal and drug addict recently released from Rikers Island after a prison stint for breaking bones in the face of a 67-year-old woman he'd punched, began menacing passengers. As trial witnesses testified, they were frightened as Neely ranted that "someone is going to die today" and that he was "willing to die and go to jail." Penny courageously intervened, restraining Neely, including applying a choke hold, until police arrived at a station stop and took Neely away.
Penny's actions were not cruel. To the contrary, witnesses described them as heroic. He appeared to be subduing a threat, not trying to harm — let alone kill — Neely. He was helped by other passengers, and rolled Neely into a position to make breathing easier. Penny and others believed that Neely was still alive when the police came. The veteran was completely cooperative with officers, voluntarily providing a statement under circumstances in which he clearly did not believe he was a suspect, and police did not tell him that Neely had died. Moreover, given the presence of the potent synthetic cannabinoid K2 in Neely's system, coupled with other maladies, there was a plausible question about the cause of death.
As a strict matter of law, Penny's actions were permissible under the doctrine of justification, which recognizes that people under a threat of force have the right to defend themselves and others. Yet, because of the happenstance that Penny is white and Neely was black, Bragg decided that social justice demanded a scalp, regardless of what actual justice might say about the matter. A cynic might wonder if Bragg was also embarrassed that Penny did what the law, under Bragg, would not — serve and protect.
It was obvious that Penny should not be charged. Apart from the legal reasonableness of his actions, prosecuting him set a terrible precedent. In a city of about 9 million people with fewer than 34,000 cops (as retirements have surged with progressive politicians and prosecutors making policing more difficult and risky), the vast majority of violent crime occurs without police on the scene. If capable, valorous civilians are unwilling to intervene, others are more vulnerable to attack. Even with Penny's acquittal, Bragg's prosecution will make good people think twice before coming to the aid of helpless people.
If a prosecutor were inclined to file charges, the only question in the case was negligence — i.e., even if Penny's use of force was justified, did he go further than a reasonable person would have, facing the same threat? Yet, Bragg cynically indicted two counts, charging second-degree manslaughter (i.e., reckless homicide) as the lead charge, with criminally negligent homicide as a backup.
This was a ploy.
Honorable Mention
This just in: National Review Institute has extended the deadline for applications for the Burke to Buckley Program to December 22. Here's what you need to know:
There are still a few spots left in National Review Institute's Burke to Buckley Fellowship Program in Miami, New York City, and Philadelphia. Burke to Buckley is intended for mid-career professionals from a wide variety of professions and industries. Over eight sessions, a small cohort gathers to engage in discussions of first principles and their application to current issues. Experts from academia and National Review serve as moderators for each session. For more information and to apply, click here. Apply today!
CODA
Last weekend, a friend and I made spur-of-the-moment plans to catch a Genesis tribute band called the Musical Box. I realized afterward that, until that point, I had never attended a tribute-band concert. So many wasted years! To quote the esteemed Guy Fieri, this group is the real deal. From the costumes and props to the musicianship itself, they re-create Genesis shows from the '70s point for point, note for note. I'm not talking "Tonight, Tonight, Tonight" Genesis. No, this is full English, 23-minutes-for-a-single-song Genesis, the air filled with Mellotron and wind instruments, listeners left with the unshakable feeling they've become unstuck in time and landed in a medieval dell somewhere on the British Isles.
The show was a performance of most of Selling England by the Pound (commemorating the album's 50th anniversary), plus extra goodies. Among them was the encore, "The Knife," a version of which I found on the internet here. Another highlight was "Firth of Fifth," a more recent version of which is here. If this era of prog rock is in any way appealing to you, I'd recommend, highly, catching their show.
Thanks for reading.
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