Trump’s crowd size fixation

On the Campaign Trail

U.S. Elections 2024

By Alexandra Ulmer, politics reporter

To get a sense of how Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump feels about his Democratic rival Kamala Harris' dizzying ascent, take a look at how he is talking about one of his favorite metrics: crowd size.

Harris has drawn thousands of supporters to events in battleground states since becoming the Democratic presidential candidate. That is riling up Trump, who loves to boast about the crowd size at his rallies. He has even suggested, falsely, that Harris is faking it. "She "A.I.'d" it, Trump wrote on Truth Social about a photo showing hundreds of cheering Harris fans at a rally in Michigan.

Latest election headlines

Frustration as the tides turn

I'm Alexandra Ulmer, a politics reporter focused on Republicans and donors. In recent months, my Republican sources – fundraisers, donors and advisers – had sounded increasingly confident that Trump would defeat President Joe Biden in November.

That all changed with the recent torrent of news. Vice President Harris has galvanized a once-morose Democratic voter base after replacing Biden at the top of their party's ticket, and suddenly Trump is no longer ahead in many battleground state opinion polls.

While the former president has frequently said he would rather run against Harris than Biden, in several of his recent speeches I've heard him express dismay about this new race. "Why the hell did I debate him?" Trump said of Biden during a rally in Montana last week.

Trump continues to frustrate some allies, donors and advisers by attacking Harris in personal terms rather than focusing on what they argue are the failed policies she has promoted while in office. During a speech in North Carolina on Wednesday that was billed as being focused on the economy, Trump steered clear of broadsides challenging Harris' racial identity but again lobbed insults at her intellect and laugh.

His much-touted interview with billionaire Elon Musk was delayed by over 40 minutes due to technical problems on social media platform X. Then there was the strange helicopter saga. Later on Thursday, he will hold his second press conference in two weeks, a sign he is eager to reclaim some of the spotlight Harris has been enjoying.

The vice president is likely to get another boost from the Democratic National Convention, which kicks off next week in Chicago. But first she'll head to North Carolina for a speech on Friday that lays out details of her economic plan, which aides say will focus on things like lowering the cost of groceries, housing and healthcare.

Not all elements of her economic agenda will make it into the speech. Her campaign wants to avoid attracting attacks over granular details, preferring the kind of strategic ambiguity she also is conveying in areas like energy.

Expect Trump to hammer her speech either way – and to keep a close eye on how many people show up to hear it.

Poll of the week

Fact check of the week

In addition to the Michigan rally, the Harris campaign was accused one other time in the past week of inflating crowd size with AI.

An image shared as "proof" that the crowds were fake at an Arizona rally showed people with distorted facial features. This photo was indeed AI-generated – by a parody X account, not the Harris campaign – and the account owner was surprised the joke went so viral. Read the full story.

In this section, the Reuters fact-checking team addresses misinformation connected to the U.S. elections. Find more fact-checks from around the world here.

The view from Japan

More Japanese companies believe a Harris presidency in the U.S. would be better for their businesses than a second Trump administration, a Reuters survey found, reflecting the respondents' concerns about protectionism and policy unpredictability.

Japan is a close ally of Washington, with tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed there, and its businesses would feel the impact of a renewed U.S.-China trade war since both are among its top trading partners.

Some 43% of Japanese firms surveyed said they preferred Harris in light of their corporate strategies and business plans while 8% picked Trump. A total of 46% said either candidate would be fine, with the remaining 3% saying they preferred neither.

Photo from the trail

Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attends a campaign event at UNLV (University of Nevada, Las Vegas) campus, in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., August 10, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt

What to watch for

Aug. 15: Trump holds press conference at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, at 4:30 pm EDT
Aug. 17: Trump holds rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania
Aug. 18: Harris and Walz take a bus tour through Pennsylvania, starting in Pittsburgh
Aug. 19-22: Democratic National Convention in Chicago

The who, what and when

Find up-to-date elections coverage, interactive data and more on Reuters.com.

Sponsors are not involved in the creation of newsletters or other Reuters news content. Advertise in this newsletter or on Reuters.com

On the Campaign Trail is sent once a week. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here.

Want to stop receiving this email? Unsubscribe here. To manage which newsletters you're signed up for, click here.

Reuters Terms & Conditions and Privacy Statement