On the Campaign Trail

U.S. Elections 2024

By Steve Holland, White House Correspondent

Welcome back to the campaign trail. President Joe Biden is under pressure to get a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas militants, which could soothe concerns at home too. Read below for more on how foreign policy could impact the upcoming election.

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Latest election headlines

How foreign policy could matter in November

I'm Steve Holland, and I'm what we like to call a veteran Reuters correspondent. I've covered six American presidents and every U.S. presidential campaign since Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush in 1992.

Conventional wisdom is that U.S. elections are almost never decided on foreign policy; they're decided on the economy instead.

Witness Bush's fall from grace with voters in 1992, when his 90% approval rating gained from victory in the first Gulf War plunged as the U.S. economy edged into a mild recession, and rival Clinton focused on the economy. Refresh your history on the elder Bush here.

This year could be different, with overseas events looming large. Despite Biden's efforts, talks between Israel and Hamas militants over a ceasefire have stalled. Parts of his Democratic coalition plan to keep protesting Biden's staunch support for Israel and the rising death toll in Gaza - now over 35,000 - even after he paused some weapons shipments. Polls show Democratic voters may not back him in November over the issue. Read about the roots of the Democratic divide here.

Biden's top officials continue to push for a deal under which Hamas would release sick, elderly and wounded hostages in exchange for a ceasefire of at least six weeks and possibly longer – something that would relieve the pressure from some Democrats at home. The White House believes a deal is still possible, even as they openly doubt Israel's broader strategy, but that optimism isn't shared in the region.

Biden prides himself on his foreign policy skills, honed over decades in the Senate and as vice president, but he doesn't seem to be winning in a test of wills with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Gaza. The president's initial inclination was to back Israel with full-throated support, but in recent weeks as the death toll has climbed, he has been a more vocal critic.

Biden's opponent, former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, sharply criticized Biden's weapons pause, but also drew outrage from the White House, Democrats and leaders of Jewish groups for saying Jewish Americans who vote for Democrats hate their religion and Israel.

Israel and Gaza are sure to feature prominently when Biden and Trump debate this summer and could be a feature of August's Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Biden will be officially nominated as the party's candidate for a second four-year term.

Some Democrats have unpleasant memories of 1968, when a police crackdown on Vietnam War protesters at their party's national convention – also in Chicago - generated scenes of chaos that helped Republican Richard Nixon defeat Democrat Hubert Humphrey.

Poll of the week

A Reuters/Ipsos poll collected responses from 1,069 registered Democrats, asking their approval on Biden's response to Israel's war on Hamas in Gaza and who they would vote for if the November presidential election were held today. The poll was conducted online and nationwide May 7-14. The results on the voting preferences of Democrats who approved or disapproved of Biden's response had margins of error of between about 4 and 5 percentage points. Read more here.

Fact check of the week

A video of White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has been edited to make it appear as if she spoke about Ukraine and the U.S. fighting together during World War Two.

The video shows a journalist, whose audio is also edited, asking why the Biden administration hasn't condemned "Ukrainian manifestations of Nazism." Jean-Pierre in the altered clip responds that the U.S. and Ukraine fought together in World War Two to defeat the regimes of Josef Stalin and Adolf Hitler.

The video was edited from a real press briefing on May 7, where Jean-Pierre made no mention of "Nazism" or "Hitler." Read more.

In this section, the Reuters fact-checking team addresses misinformation connected to the U.S. elections. Find more fact-checks from around the world here.

Photo from the trail

A Palestinian student, who plans to return to his homeland after graduation and who wishes to remain anonymous, poses for a portrait while wearing a keffiyeh along with his commencement cap and 2024 tassel, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at the Auraria Campus in Denver, Colorado, U.S., May 10, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt

The view from China and Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's leader Xi Jinping pledged a new strategic partnership that took direct aim at the United States, and particularly recent Biden policies including new Asia military partnerships and pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. China faces new export tariffs under Biden, and the threat of even higher tariffs under Trump.

What to watch for

May 17: Trump addresses annual Republican meeting in St. Paul, Minnesota
May 18: Trump speaks at the National Rifle Association annual meeting in Dallas, Texas
May 19: Biden delivers commencement address at Morehouse College. Robert F. Kennedy Jr has a rally in Aurora, Colorado.

The who, what and when

Find up-to-date elections coverage, interactive data and more on Reuters.com.

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