Morning Jolt: We Can’t Say We Weren’t Warned

WITH DOMINIC PINO

March 25 2024

This is Dominic Pino filling in for Jim Geraghty. I'll be writing tomorrow, and then Noah Rothman takes over on Wednesday and Thursday. There will be no newsletter on Good Friday.

On the menu today: Debt.

Where the Federal Budget Sees Itself in 30 Years

Each year, the Congressional Budget Office releases long-term budget projections that estimate government spending, revenue, and overall economic factors over 30 years. This year's projections, for 2024 through 2054, came out last week. Obviously, any projections over that long a timespan should come with a grain of salt, or a whole shaker. But they are nonetheless useful for seeing how things will look if the federal government stays on its current budgetary path.

The CBO projections assume that current law will govern spending and revenue, and that the economy will remain stable over the entire window. This is of course unrealistic, but since the economy will likely underperform some years and overperform other years, the 30-year average will likely not be as far ...

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