| SINKING DEEPER INTO WIDER WAR: President Joe Biden was briefed on a range of response options by his national security team yesterday as he weighs what level of military force will send a strong message to Iran and its proxies without sliding into the dreaded "wider war" in the Middle East. "We’ll hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing," Biden posted on his @POTUS social media account. Biden is expected to approve a robust package of strikes over several days against targets in Syria and Iraq that will aim to degrade the capabilities of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah, as well as hit bases and logistics hubs linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Direct strikes against Iran, while among the options, are unlikely, unless the first wave is ineffective in deterring attacks like the one Sunday on a border outpost in Jordan that killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded more than 40, with eight requiring medical evacuation. "I would not take those options off the table, but that’s not where I would begin," former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on CNN, referring to calls from prominent Republican lawmakers calling for a bombing campaign against Tehran. "The IRGC is actually Iranian force that supplies, trains, helps plan these attacks. I would start [with] them. I would target their personnel and their sites in Iraq and Syria. I’d hit them fairly hard, and I’d see how that works," Esper said. "If the attacks continue, then I’d work my way up those options and eventually work your way into striking targets within Iran." With the United States and the United Kingdom in a shooting war with the Houthis in Yemen, and now on the verge of another tit-for-tat battle with Iranian proxies, the wider war that Biden seeks to avoid seems to have already arrived. "This is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday while meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. "I would argue that we’ve not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973 — and arguably even before that." BIDEN ADMINISTRATION FACING PRESSURE FOR 'DECISIVE' ACTION AGAINST IRAN DETERRENCE HAS FAILED: Whatever course of action Biden picks, he will face a chorus of criticism from Republicans in Congress intent on portraying him as a weak and ineffective commander in chief. "The administration needs to take a step back and appreciate and realize that their Middle East policy is failing and deterrence has failed when it comes to Iran," Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), a former Green Beret, said on CNN. "All roads, whether it’s Hezbollah, whether it’s the Houthis, whether it’s Hamas, or whether it’s these militias in Iraq, all roads lead back to Tehran. The appeasement strategy has failed. This de-escalation attempt has actually only invited escalation from the Iranian regime. The president said Friday Iran’s gotten the message. Clearly, they have not." Democrats who back Biden argue the idea that more muscular strikes against Tehran will bring Iran and its proxies to heel is based on a flawed understanding of the dynamic in the Middle East. "These militant groups are trying to start a war. That’s what they want. They’re not attacking U.S. troops to strike a trade deal here. They want a war," Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) said on CNN. "We don’t want to play into their aims. We want to stop a war, not start one." "There is this great divide in Iran between the hard-line forces that want to attack the West and the forces that actually want to reconcile and reform that country for the better," Moulton said. "So what we don’t want to do is empower the hard-liners here. We don’t want to empower the militias." JORDAN DRONE ATTACK: WHY ARE US TROOPS IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRY? WE ABSOLUTELY, MOST DEFINITELY, 'DO NOT SEEK WAR WITH IRAN': Biden administration spokespersons got their talking points and pounded them relentlessly. At yesterday's Pentagon briefing, deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh at least eight times uttered a version of this phrase: "We don’t seek a war with Iran," sometimes switching out "Iran" for "wider war." At the White House briefing, John Kirby clocked in with seven mentions of "We are not looking for a war with Iran. … We’re not looking to escalate here." "Clearly, there’s a calculus by at least the IRGC that conducting these attacks is — is worth the risk that they’re taking, and we obviously are going to keep working to change that calculus," Kirby said. "This was a very serious attack. It had lethal consequences. We will respond to them. We respond appropriately. I’m not going to telegraph what that’s going to look like." BIDEN ADMINISTRATION MAINTAINS IT DOESN'T WANT WAR WITH IRAN FOLLOWING DEADLY ATTACK KILLED IN ACTION: The Pentagon released the names of the three Army reserve soldiers who were killed when an Iranian-made drone evaded U.S. air defenses and hit their living quarters. And Singh confirmed an investigation is underway to determine why the drone wasn't detected and shot down. "What was different about this attack is where it landed," Singh said. "It did impact in — where living quarters are, and I believe it was pretty early in the morning, so people were actually in their beds when the drone impacted." Several news organizations, including the Associated Press, quoted unnamed U.S. officials as saying the low-flying drone slipped through because it was mistaken for a U.S. drone returning to base at the same time. The fallen soldiers were all from the 718th Engineer Company, an Army Reserve unit based at Fort Moore, Georgia: - Sgt. William Jerome Rivers, 46, of Carrollton, Georgia
- Spc. Kennedy Ladon Sanders, 24, of Waycross, Georgia
- Spc. Breonna Alexsondria Moffett, 23, of Savannah, Georgia
AFTER DEADLY DRONE ATTACK IN JORDAN, US CENTRAL COMMAND REASSESSING AIR DEFENSE NEEDS Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: The House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee will be putting the embattled United Nations Relief and Works Agency under the microscope after allegations that a dozen employees of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees took part in the Oct. 7 terrorist attack by Hamas. The 2 p.m. hearing being held jointly with the House Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations Subcommittee will feature testimony from Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch; Richard Goldberg, senior adviser for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Marcus Sheff, CEO of IMPACT-se. "I am appalled, but unfortunately not surprised, that UNRWA employees were involved in Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre. For years, there has been extensive evidence that UNRWA is not a neutral arbiter and that their anti-Israel bias is widespread and systemic," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) said in announcing the hearing last week. "A full accounting of UNRWA's complicity in the Oct. 7 attack, as with all instances of terrorism, is urgently needed, as I have been pressing since November." The Wall Street Journal reported this week that according to Israeli intelligence reports it was able to review, around 1,200 of UNRWA’s roughly 12,000 employees in Gaza, about 10%, have links to Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad. At the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby downplayed that report. "I haven’t seen any information that affirmatively makes that case that it’s more than 13 now," Kirby said. "But you've got 13,000 UNRWA employees. … Let’s not impugn the good work of a whole agency because of the potential bad actions here by a small number." "I am not dismissing the seriousness of the allegations against those employees and whether there’s going to be more that will be found," he said. "That’s why an investigation is so dang important here, so that we can look at the scope of the problem." UNRWA ALLEGATIONS INDICATE HOW DEEPLY ORGANIZATION IS INTERWOVEN WITH HAMAS STOLTENBERG: 'WEAPONS TO UKRAINE IS THE PATH TO PEACE': With Russia emboldened by the efforts by Republicans in Congress to block additional aid to Ukraine, the civilian head of the NATO alliance made yet another urgent plea on Ukraine's behalf. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who's in Washington to mark the 75th anniversary of the trans-Atlantic alliance, said Europe is doing its part and that the U.S. needs to keep the arms supply flowing. "In fact, what European NATO allies and Canada provide in terms of military, financial, and humanitarian aid actually exceeds what the U.S. is providing," Stoltenberg said at a press event at the State Department. "President [Vladimir] Putin started this war, and he could end it today if he stopped attacking a neighbor. The war could also end if Ukraine stopped defending itself, but that would not mean peace. It would mean Russian occupation, and occupation is not peace," he said. "Moscow must accept a negotiated solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation. What happens around the negotiating table is inextricably linked to the situation on the battlefield. So if we want a lasting, just peace, we must provide Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition. Weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace." US FOREIGN MILITARY SALES BOOMING: War is bad, but it's good for business if you're a U.S. defense contractor. The State Department released its annual report on "U.S. Arms Transfers and Defense Trade," and it turns out fiscal 2023 was a banner year. "In FY 2023 the total value of transferred defense articles and services and security cooperation activities conducted under the Foreign Military Sales system was $80.9 billion," the report said. "This represents a 55.9% increase, up from $51.9 billion in FY 2022. This is the highest annual total of sales and assistance provided to our allies and partners." The list of buyers is a who's who of U.S. allies around the world, who after the experience Ukraine has with U.S. weapons couldn't get enough of the HIMARS and NASAMS air defense systems. M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks and CH-47F Chinook and AH-64E Apache helicopters were also hot sellers. And both South Korea and the Czech Republic bought Lockheed Martin F-35s, America's premier fighter jets. Not included in the report because we're now in fiscal 2024, NATO ally Greece was approved this week to buy 40 F-35s, valued at up to $8.6 billion, and in return for approved Sweden's bid to join NATO, Turkey was finally approved to buy up to 40 new F-16 fighter aircraft as well as upgrades to 79 of its existing fleet, valued at up to $23 billion. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin back at Pentagon with no shortage of pressing problems Washington Examiner: Biden administration facing pressure for 'decisive' action against Iran Washington Examiner: Biden administration maintains it doesn't want war with Iran following deadly attack Breaking Defense: After deadly drone attack in Jordan, US Central Command reassessing air defense needs Washington Examiner: Jordan drone attack: Why are US troops in the Middle Eastern country? Washington Examiner: US faces most 'dangerous' Middle East of Biden's long career, Blinken says Washington Examiner: DOD names three soldiers killed in drone attack and reveals roughly 120 troops have been injured in attacks in Middle East Washington Examiner: Iran uses drug kingpin to assassinate overseas critics and defectors Washington Examiner: UNRWA allegations indicate how deeply organization is interwoven with Hamas Washington Examiner: House Republicans to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas on two articles Washington Examiner: Mayorkas's impending impeachment would be first for Cabinet member in 150 years Washington Examiner: McCaul: DHS Secretary Mayorkas 'needs to pay for his sins' Washington Examiner: Biden-district Republicans face attacks over Mayorkas impeachment Washington Examiner: Democrats demand answers on Biden administration's 'highly unusual' Israel arms sales Politico: NATO Chief Huddles With Trump Allies In Longshot Ukraine Funding Push Wall Street Journal: U.K.-Japan Plan To Supply Kyiv Shells Falters New York Times: For Europe and NATO, a Russian Invasion Is No Longer Unthinkable Wall Street Journal: Qatar Premier Says There Is Progress On Hostage-Release Deal The Hill: Why Chinese Spy Balloons Are Back In Force Over Taiwan Air & Space Forces Magazine: Foreign Military Sales Sets New Record, Up 55.9 Percent in 2023 The War Zone: Czech Republic Officially Joins the F-35 Fighter Program Defense One: Aussie F-35s, UK Tanker Join Massive Wargame Over Western US Air Force Times: Boeing Expands Drone Exams to Lockheed C-5 with Eye on Broader Fleet Space News: Northrop Grumman's Orbital Refueling Port Selected for US Military Satellites Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Wraps Up Flight Testing on Electric Aircraft, Complete with Casualty Evac DefenseScoop: Pentagon Kicks Off Public Bounty for Biased Chatbots DefenseScoop: Marine Corps Plans To Upgrade 50,000 Radios Across The Force Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Pushes for Better Health Care Access for Far-Flung Recruiters THE CALENDAR: TUESDAY | JANUARY 30 9 a.m. 390 Cannon — House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Authoritarian Alignment: The CCP’s Support for America’s Adversaries," with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/ 10 a.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Constitution and Limited Government Subcommittee hearing: “The Southern Border Crisis: The Constitution and the States.” http://judiciary.house.gov 10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee markup of H.R. 863, Impeaching Alejandro Nicholas Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security, for high crimes and misdemeanors. http://homeland.house.gov 10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar to present a policy paper: "The Stakes Of Houthi Aggression Against International Shipping Since Oct. 7," Edmund Fitton-Brown, former U.K. Ambassador to Yemen and senior advisor, Counter Extremism Project; Claire Jungman, chief of staff, United Against Nuclear Iran; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director, Counter Extremism Project https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion of a policy paper: “The Quantum Advantage: Why it Matters and Essential Next Steps,” with Michael Hayduk, deputy director of the Air Force Research Lab Information Directorate; and Laura Thomas, chief of staff of Infleqtion https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event 12 p.m. 201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Russia, Ukraine, and the Future of the Transatlantic Community,” with former U.K. Defense Secretary Liam Fox and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, founder of the Russian Anti-War Committee and former political prisoner https://www.hudson.org/events/russia-ukraine-future 2 p.m. — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee and Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations Subcommittee joint hearing on “UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) Exposed: Examining the Agency’s Mission and Failures," with testimony from Richard Goldberg, senior adviser for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Marcus Sheff, CEO of IMPACT-se; and Hillel Neuer, executive director of U.N. Watch https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/ 3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion: A Life in the American Century, with author Joseph Nye, professor emeritus at Harvard University and former assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-life-american-century WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 31 8 a.m. 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club annual Defense Research and Development Summit, with Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Brig. Gen. John Cushing, commanding general of Army Combat Capabilities Development Command; and Jay Dryer, director of the Defense Department’s Strategic Capabilities Office https://potomacofficersclub.com/events 10 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee hearing: "Senior Enlisted Leaders on Quality of Life issues, with testimony from Sgt. Maj. Troy Black, senior enlisted adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer; Navy Master Chief Petty Officer James Honea; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Carlos Ruiz; Air Force Chief Master Sgt. JoAnne Bass; and Space Force Chief Master Sgt. John Bentivegna https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/quality-life-hearing 10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Raising AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S.) Pillar Two: Integrating Autonomous Systems into the ADF (Australian Defense Force)," with Brig. James Davis, director general of future land warfare, Australian Army; Capt. Adam Allica, director general of warfare innovation, Royal Australian Navy; Cmdr. Ross Bender, director general of air combat capability, Royal Australian Air Force; and Emily Hilder, interim head of the Australian Defense Department’s Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator https://www.hudson.org/events/raising-aukus-pillar-two 10:30 a.m. 208 Massachusetts Ave. NE — The Heritage Foundation hosts NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for a speech on "the state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization," followed by a Q&A session https://www9.heritage.org 11 a.m. 390 Cannon — House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: "The CCP Cyber Threat to the American Homeland and National Security," with testimony from Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Jen Easterly, director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Christopher Wray, director, FBI; Harry Coker, director, Office of the National Cyber Director https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings 2 p.m. 2200 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee hearing: “Roundtable: Taliban Reprisals," with testimony from Amy Marden of the Moral Compass Federation; Andy Sullivan of No One Left Behind; Thomas Kasza of the 1208 Foundation; Justin Sapp of Badger Six; Michael Cizmar of Rafiq Friends of Afghanistan; Elizabeth Lynn of Operation Recovery; Joe Maida IV of TransNexus Technologies; and Sanjar Sohail of 8AM Media http://foreignaffairs.house.gov 2 p.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit through Feb. 2, with Energy Undersecretary for Nuclear Security Jill Hruby, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, and Thomas Summers, vice chairman of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit 2 p.m. 1334 Longworth — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing: “Eyewitness Accounts: Ukrainian Children and Adult Civilians Abducted by Russia,” with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Pia Kauma, president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly; Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets; Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin (via video recording); Mykola Kuleba, director of Save Ukraine; and Rostislav, Denys, and Ksenia, children forcibly removed from Ukraine. RSVP: [email protected] 2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization at 75: Reflecting on Past Successes and Planning for the Future," with testimony from retired Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, former U.S. permanent representative to NATO, Washington, D.C.; Luke Coffey, senior fellow of national security and defense, Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C.; and Tara Varma, foreign policy fellow, Brookings Institute Center on the U.S. and Europe http://foreign.senate.gov 4 p.m. 1200 South Hayes St., Arlington, Virginia — Rand Corporation discussion: “Women, Peace, and Security in Action: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security,” with Erin Cooper, acting director of international humanitarian policy, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Cailin Crockett, senior adviser, White House Gender Policy Council; and Sharon Feist, command gender adviser at Indo-Pacific Command https://www.rand.org/events/2024/01/women-peace-security.html 5:30 p.m. 30 Madison Ave. New York, New York — Common Good in-person and virtual discussion: “Promise and Perils: National Defense in the Age of AI,” with Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies, Center for a New American Security and author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence https://www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-events/national-security THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 1 8:15 a.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit through Feb 2., with Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Corey Hinderstein, deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration; and Mallory Stewart, assistant secretary of state for arms control, deterrence, and stability https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit 9:30 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Adm. Samuel J. Paparo Jr. to be commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings 10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual discussion: “Ukraine’s Accession to the EU: Next Steps," with Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada, and Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukraines-accession-eu-next-steps 12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy," with Simon Henderson, WINEP fellow; Michael Knights; WINEP fellow; and Noam Raydan, WINEP senior fellow https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 2 8:15 a.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit, with Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and Madelyn Creedon, former principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit 10 a.m Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling — Change of Directorship Ceremony in which Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse will take over as Defense Intelligence Agency director from the retiring Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks presides. https://www.defense.gov 12:30 — Atlantic Council virtual discussion on a new report: “Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm,” with Yevgenia Albats, Harvard University fellow; Casey Michel, director of the Human Rights Foundation’s Combating Kleptocracy Program; Angela Stent, senior adviser at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/five-scenarios-for-russias-future/ | | | | "Moscow must accept a negotiated solution where Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation. What happens around the negotiating table is inextricably linked to the situation on the battlefield. So if we want a lasting, just peace, we must provide Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition. Weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace." | | NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking in Washington Monday |
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