Tuesday night's election results are sure to have the 2024 GOP primary contenders searching for a way out of the electoral trap the party has fallen into on abortion in the wake of Dobbs.
In Virginia, where Republicans had hoped to win unified control of the state legislature, Democrats were instead able to maintain their majority in the state senate and to reclaim the majority in the house of delegates, dealing a tough blow to Governor Glenn Youngkin's rising national star and sounding alarms for the party's approach to abortion.
Republicans in the state campaigned on job growth, combating crime, tax relief, and parental involvement in education, and, to be sure, the election of any one candidate is not a perfect referendum on abortion. But Democrats went all-in on the issue in Virginia, convincing voters that Republicans want to "ban abortion."
Youngkin has proposed a 15-week ban on abortion with exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother, but even the more moderate proposal left Republicans vulnerable to Democrats' post-Roe attacks in a state that currently limits abortion to the first 26 weeks of pregnancy.
The Haley campaign seized on the underwhelming Election Day results as evidence that the party needs a leadership shake-up.
"Isn't It Time We Had a Republican Who Can Win a General Election?" Haley asked in a press release.
"After Republicans suffered big losses in the 2022 midterms, the pattern continues one year later. Whether it's a purple state like Virginia, a leaning red state like Ohio, or a deep red state like Kentucky, the election results last night were bad for Republicans with the exception of a few bright spots," the release reads.
It goes on to cite a recent CNN poll that found Haley as the only candidate to lead Biden outside the margin of error. "To beat Biden and save America, the data is conclusive: Trump is a loser. DeSantis is a loser. Haley is a winner."
DeSantis, who passed a six-week abortion ban in Florida, said Wednesday that the Sunshine State offers a way forward for Republicans after "yet another disappointing election night." He pointed to his massive reelection win last fall, which occurred despite a predicted red wave failing to materialize in other states last cycle.
Republican political strategist Whit Ayres warns one must be careful in drawing conclusions from off-year elections and extrapolating out to the presidential race—but said if one looks at things as part of a larger pattern, the pattern is "very clear on abortion." Whether it's Kansas, Montana, Ohio, or Virginia, Republicans have an abortion problem, he said.
In Ohio, which had a six-week abortion ban on the books with no exceptions for rape or incest, voters approved a ballot measure that will effectively outlaw any restrictions on abortion and other procedures that involve reproduction, including gender-transition surgeries.
"Governor Youngkin tried to sell a 15-week limit, with exceptions thereafter, and even that was not successful. I can't imagine trying to sell a six-week limit in a great many states that have passed them," Ayres said.
"I don't know how many more warning lights Republicans need to see that these extremely restrictive abortion bills are politically toxic," he added.
Patrick T. Brown, a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, said that Republicans "haven't figured out a way to talk about the issue [of abortion] in a way that resonates with the median voter yet."
"I was hopeful that Virginia [would show that] a middle ground could work, but I think they haven't demonstrated the credibility for voters to take them seriously yet. This is a long term process and it's going to require demonstrations of really crystal-clear exceptions when it comes to these hard cases," he said.
In Ohio, trying to defend a bill that doesn't include rape and incest exemptions "was poison."
"The pro-life movement is at a moment of tremendous peril right now, and we need to demonstrate that we can stop the bleeding and that's going to require a more modest, incremental approach than just going straight to the barricades every time," he said.
SBA Pro-Life America president Marjorie Dannenfelser sent a memo to the group's allies calling the losses in Ohio and Virginia "major disappointments for the pro-life movement" and said the outcomes "serve as warning signs for the GOP — which is still severely underestimating and underinvesting in the abortion issue — heading into the critical 2024 election year."
She cited AdImpact data that found abortion-focused ads in Virginia made up 56 percent of all Democratic TV ad spots and noted Democrats had a nine-to-one spending advantage when compared with GOP abortion-focused ads.
"It is long past due for the GOP to define where it stands on the issue nationally," she says. "It should not be difficult: the GOP must align itself with the national consensus that already exists, which is limiting late-term abortion when the child can feel excruciating pain. Consensus protections for the unborn must also be paired with compassion and resources for women."
But the results show that "having a clear position and contrasting it isn't enough — campaigns and the party must put real advertising dollars behind it, going toe-to-toe with the Democrats. Otherwise, the message is drowned out in deceptions and lies."
Ayres said the way forward is for the party to leave the question of abortion to the states "because there will never be a national consensus on the issue."
Of the 2024 Republican presidential candidates, former president Donald Trump has a winning position on abortion, Ayres said, despite the fact that he has previously alienated the pro-life community with his comments on the issue.
Trump suggested back in May that Florida's ban on abortion after six weeks of pregnancy is "too harsh."
"If you look at what DeSantis did, a lot of people don't even know if he knew what he was doing. But he signed six weeks, and many people within the pro-life movement feel that that was too harsh," Trump told The Messenger at the time.
"I'm looking at all alternatives. I'm looking at many alternatives," the former president said.
Trump later declined to say whether he would sign a federal abortion ban or what kind of abortion policy he would support. "What I will do is negotiate so that people are happy," he said, while taking a victory lap for having appointed the Supreme Court justices who as part of the conservative majority voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Brown said he's concerned about what impact last night's results will have on the future of the social-conservative movement on the national stage because of how President Trump has positioned himself in relation to the movement over the last couple of months.
"It's one thing to disagree about the strategy around a 15-week federal abortion ban," he said. "I'm personally kind of skeptical on that as well, and he's obviously right that the politics of the issue have been bad for Republicans. And he's not wrong in trying to find new ways to talk about it. But what he has done is essentially sandbag Republican governors who have."
Ayres said that Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and former South Carolina governor, may also have a strong position on the issue, depending on how her view evolves, he said.
Haley has said the next president must find a "national consensus" on abortion and has suggested it's "not realistic" for candidates to pledge a federal abortion ban on all abortions. She has said, however, that she believes there is a federal role in preventing late-term abortions.
"America is not going to pass a national abortion limit," Ayres said. "As Nikki Haley said, there are not 60 votes for that in the Senate and there's not going to be. So quit beating your head against a wall."
Brown also cited Haley's position as a winning one in some respects, saying she's right to say discussions of a federal ban are premature.
"Spending a lot of time talking about a bill that will never go anywhere and will actually make it harder to get pro-life legislators elected, I think she's right to say, look, let's focus on the state level. Let's focus on supporting moms," he said, adding that her political instincts on the issue are right.
Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie said that Tuesday night's results prove Trump is "political and electoral poison."
"Trump endorsed candidate Daniel Cameron loses the Governor's race in DEEP RED Kentucky. Another loss for Trump. The losing will only end for Republicans if we rid ourselves of Donald Trump. Trump—loser in '18, '20, '21, '22 and now '23," he said in a post on X.
Expect more long-distance Trump bashing from Christie and the rest of the field in Wednesday night's third primary debate, which the front-runner has once again decided to skip in favor of a rally of his own.
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