State of the economy: Vibes vs. data

PRESENTED BY META   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Jul 14, 2023 ☕ Happy Friday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,452 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.     1 big thing — State of the economy: Vibes vs. data Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   If you spend your life looking at economic data, these look like the best of times: Inflation is a mere 3%. Unemployment is hovering near 50-year lows. But that's not how the bulk of Americans see it, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes. Why it matters: Americans' views of the economy are colored by their politics as much as the actual state of the economy. A crucial question for the 2024 election cycle — not to mention the national state of mind — is whether the quite solid economic backdrop will start to translate into a broader sense of things-on-the-right-track, can-do optimism in the year ahead. 🧮 By the numbers: The economy is in a pretty great place if you follow only the stats. The misery index — a handy, if simplistic, measure of economic distress that is the sum of the jobless rate and inflation — stands at 6.7%. That's higher than just before the pandemic (5.8% in February 2020), but lower than what is remembered as the boom times of 2000. Yet most measures of how people feel about the economy remain quite soft, even after a June surge. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index has rebounded from recent lows last summer, but remains substantially lower than it ever was in the 2010s or during the 2001 recession. 🥊 Reality check: Polling about the economy is extremely polarized. A survey question along the lines of, "Do you think economic conditions are good or bad?" is answered more along the lines of: "Do you like the current president or not?" In October 2020, just before President Trump lost re-election, Republicans' economic sentiment was 26 points higher than Democrats' in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. In February 2021, after Biden took office, Republicans rated the economy 28 points worse. A similar pattern occurred between the parties around the 2016 and 2008 elections, when partisan control shifted hands. We seem to be experiencing something similar right now. Attitudes about the economy and President Biden's approval ratings are both being driven by bad vibes and the scars of the pandemic. Share this story.         2. 🎥 Hollywood shuts down Members of the Writers Guild of America picket at The Walt Disney Studios in Burbank yesterday. Photo: Gilbert Flores for Variety via Getty Images SAG-AFTRA, the union that represents Hollywood actors, will strike today for the first time since 1980 after failing to reach a new labor deal with the major studios, writes Tim Baysinger of Axios Pro: Media Deals. Why it matters: The actors' strike is the first time in 63 years that two Hollywood unions have been on strike simultaneously. A strike by Hollywood's largest union, which encompasses 160,000 members, will essentially stop all scripted film and TV production — many of which were already halted by the writers' strike. Expect further delays on upcoming film releases and TV show premieres. Members won't be doing promotional work for upcoming blockbuster films and TV shows — including next week's "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer." Yesterday, "Oppenheimer" stars Matt Damon and Emily Blunt left the U.K. premiere of the film shortly after the strike was called. Zoom out: The last time that both the actors' and writers' unions were on strike was 1960 — when SAG was led by Ronald Reagan. Residuals were a major point of contention then as they are now. The current residuals fight is over how much workers are paid when their shows and movies are licensed to streaming services. Streaming has proven to be far less lucrative than expected, which has investors calling for reduced spending. That has put the squeeze on rank-and-file workers, while CEOs are still receiving 10-figure pay packages. The rapid growth of AI has caused panic among both writers and actors that their work could be replaced or replicated by machines. Share this story.         3. 🕶️ Media summer apocalypse Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   The media industry is facing unprecedented disruption, all coming to a head this summer, Axios' Sara Fischer and Tim Baysinger write. Why it matters: The sudden rise of generative AI — combined with the slow death of traditional television and print — is leading to a historic number of strikes and job losses that undermine the media, news and entertainment that Americans rely on. 🎞️ Striking members of SAG-AFTRA (actors) join Hollywood screenwriters, who have been out 70 days, putting dozens of television shows on pause. Both strikes come as the box office struggles to recover from COVID. 🗞️ The strikes in Hollywood mirror the historic level of protests from newsrooms across the country. As traditional TV falls victim to cord-cutting faster than expected, and newspapers continue to be gobbled up by hungry hedge funds, news workers are relying on unions for job security. Disney CEO Bob Iger made waves yesterday when he told CNBC that the company is weighing a sale of the company's linear TV channels, including broadcast network ABC, though it still plans to keep ESPN. 🔬 Zoom in: For entertainers and journalists, the rise of artificial intelligence has become a sticking point in union negotiations. "The entire business model has been changed by streaming, digital, AI. This is a moment of history — that is a moment of truth," SAG-AFTRA President Fran Drescher said in a press conference Thursday. The news industry is making some progress. AP yesterday announced a historic two-year deal with ChatGPT creator OpenAI to share access to news content and technology. The bottom line: The media industry faces a tidal wave of changes. Parts of it may never recover. Share this story.         A MESSAGE FROM META Augmented reality glasses will give you new ways to experience history     People will be able to use augmented reality to explore Viking era settlements. The result: They will be able to see, feel and fully experience what life was like. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Explore more possibilities with the metaverse.     4. 🌡️ Heat wave's historic longevity, intensity Data: NOAA Global Forecast System. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The heat wave enveloping more than 115 million people from Florida to California will set all-time records for duration and magnitude, Axios weather expert Andrew Freedman writes. Why it matters: A combination of human-caused climate change — and the influence of El Niño — are worsening this heat wave, posing a deadly threat across the country. 🧮 Two numbers drive home how severe this summer's heat has become: 18: Phoenix is on track to beat the city's all-time record for the number of consecutive days with highs of 110°F or greater. 95°F: The overnight low temperature in Phoenix yesterday. Keep reading ... Get Axios Generate.         5. 🇨🇳 China hack hits Commerce secretary Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   A new hack of the Microsoft email accounts of U.S. officials, including Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, shows an alarming leap in sophistication by Chinese-state-backed hackers, The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription). Why it matters: The hack "demonstrated a new level of skill from Beijing's large hacker army, and prompted concerns that the extent of its infiltration into U.S. government and corporate networks is far greater than currently known." The hack, which includes State Department officials, is "being rated by some security experts as among the most technically sophisticated and stealthy ever discovered," The Journal adds. Go deeper.         6. 🧵 Zuck's pivot to cool Data: Factset. Chart: Axios Visuals It's Hot Zuck Summer, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets: Mark Zuckerberg's new social media site, Threads, is a hit. His bare-chested pic was met with more thirst than derision. Capping it all off: There's the smokin' hot bounceback of that stock price. Meta's stock has more than tripled since bottoming out in October, after the company reported a big drop in profits. It's now the second-best-performing stock of the year (after chipmaker Nvidia). What happened: Meta pivoted from the metaverse, laid off thousands of people — a move Wall Street loved — and launched a Twitter clone amid Elon Musk's chaos. "Elon Musk Is Making Mark Zuckerberg Seem Cool Again," The Wall Street Journal declared. Go deeper: "New Mark Zuckerberg Dropped," by The Atlantic's Charlie Warzel.         7. 🏛️ Quote of day Speaker McCarthy holds a photo line with tourists in Statuary Hall at the Capitol yesterday. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images House Speaker Kevin McCarthy surprised tourists with a pop-up photo line in the Capitol yesterday. An aide shared this exchange: Visitor: "Hi. I got to be you in, like, the simulation we did. I was the Speaker of the House." McCarthy, giggling: "Awesome!" After taking a beat for the photo, McCarthy adds: "It didn't take you 15 rounds to win though, did it?" Watch the video.         8. 🎵 1 stream thing: 2 reasons music is soaring Bad Bunny performs at Made In America in Philadelphia last year. Photo: Theo Wargo/Getty Images for Roc Nation Non-English-language music looks like the future of the music business: The global music industry passed 1 trillion streams this calendar at the fastest pace ever in three months — a full month faster than 2022, AP writes from a midyear report by Luminate, an entertainment data company. Global streams are up 30.8% from last year. Why it matters: Latin and K-pop (Korean) artists are leading the charge. 🧮 By the numbers: Two in five — 40% — of U.S. music listeners enjoy music in a non-English language, Luminate found. Spanish-language music's share of that top 10,000 has grown 3.6% since 2021. English-language music's share has dropped by 4.2%. That's reflected in Luminate's midyear Top Albums: Bad Bunny, the Puerto Rican superstar, still breaks the top 10 with his 2022 album, "Un Verano Sin Ti." Explore the data.         A MESSAGE FROM META Augmented reality will help firefighters with search and rescue     One day, firefighters will use the metaverse to navigate burning buildings more quickly. The result: Crucial seconds can be saved when lives are on the line. The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real. Explore more possibilities with the metaverse.   📨 Thanks for sharing your morning with us. Please invite your friends to sign up. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201     subscribe to Mike's afternoon wrap up, Axios PM.   Follow Axios on social media: