| WHEN PUTSCH CAME TO SHOVE: It ended as suddenly as it began. For months, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary army, had been railing against the generals in the Russian Defense Ministry, accusing them of incompetence and using his convict army as cannon fodder in Ukraine. A decree that his soldiers would have to join Russia's regular army and a subsequent air attack on his encampment in Ukraine, which Prigozhin blamed on the Defense Ministry, triggered an angry rant Friday on his Telegram channel and the declaration of a "March for Justice" in which he threatened to take his 25,000-strong army to Moscow. By Saturday, Prigozhin's forces were 120 miles from the capital, seemingly encountering no resistance and cheered on by small crowds of supportive Russians. Moscow braced for a clash between Prigozhin's mercenaries and Chechen fighters loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Defenses were hastily erected on roads, and Prigozhin's forces shot down several Russian aircraft, including some attack helicopters and a command and control aircraft. Then, for reasons that still remain unclear, Prigozhin abruptly ended his march, accepting a deal for clemency from Putin and exile in neighboring Belarus. The episode that transfixed the world and threatened Putin's grip on power left nothing but questions. RUSSIA COUP: WAGNER GROUP LEADER PRIGOZHIN SAYS 'WE ARE TURNING BACK' AFTER LUKASHENKO PLAYS MEDIATOR WHY DID PRIGOZHIN STOP? "Clearly, Prigozhin lost his nerve," said retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA director and U.S. Central commander. "This rebellion, although it had some applause along the way, didn't appear to be generating the kind of support that he had hoped it would." In a televised speech Saturday, a stone-faced Putin called the insurrection "a knife in the back of our country" and vowed that "those who staged the mutiny … will inevitably be punished," only to hours later drop the criminal case against Prigozhin and offer amnesty to his troops in a deal reportedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War quoted an account from the Russian opposition outlet Meduza, which cited unnamed internal Kremlin sources as saying Prigozhin tried to contact Putin Saturday as his troops were marching north, but that Putin refused to speak with him. "Meduza noted that once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner's actions and changed his mind on Wagner's prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko," the ISW reported, adding, "A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also questioned whether the deal will hold Wagner or Prigozhin accountable in any way for the deaths of at least 13 Russian airmen on June 24." Prigozhin's whereabouts are currently unknown, his press service having told Russian outlet RTVI that he "sends his regards" and will answer questions "when he is on normal communication." "Prigozhin kept his life but lost his Wagner Group. And he should be very careful around open windows in his new surroundings in Belarus, where he's going," said Petraeus on CNN. "It brings to mind also Napoleon's admonition, if you start to take Vienna, take Vienna." IS PUTIN'S GRIP ON POWER SLIPPING? In a series of appearances on the Sunday shows, Secretary of State Antony Blinken refused to speculate on Putin's hold on power, calling it an "internal matter," but he did say "some very serious cracks" have emerged. "Everything Putin has tried to accomplish, the opposite has happened. Russia is weaker economically. It's weaker militarily. Its standing in the world has plummeted. It's managed to strengthen and unite NATO," Blinken said on ABC. Perhaps Prigozhin's most damaging action was to publicly refute all of Putin's justifications for his "special military operation," telling the Russian people there was no threat from Ukraine, no Nazis that needed to be neutralized. "The notion that this war, this aggression by Russia, was being pursued under false pretenses. The notion that Ukraine or NATO somehow presented a threat to Russia that it had to deal with militarily, that's now much more out in the open than it's been," said Blinken. "The fact that you have from within someone directly questioning Putin's authority, directly questioning the premises upon which he launched this aggression against Ukraine, that, in and of itself, is something very, very powerful," Blinken said on CNN. BLINKEN CALLS WAR IN UKRAINE A 'DEVASTATING, STRATEGIC FAILURE' FOR PUTIN Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Tuesday, July 4, as we observe the Independence Day federal holiday. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden is back in the White House after returning to Washington from a weekend at Camp David. The president took no questions as he departed Marine One on the South Lawn. In a tweet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had a "positive and inspiring conversation" with Biden in a phone call yesterday. "We coordinated our positions on the eve of the @NATO Summit in Vilnius," he said. "We discussed further expansion of defense cooperation, with an emphasis on long-range weapons." On Saturday, Zelensky wasted no time mocking Putin's plight. "Today, the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability," he tweeted. "The security of Europe's eastern flank depends only on our defense. Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we're enhancing our common defense." WHERE ARE PUTIN AND HIS GENERALS? After Putin gave his speech Saturday, he disappeared from public view, as did his top generals, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff Chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who were both vilified by Prigozhin in recent days. Shoigu was shown in a video released today by the Russian Defense Ministry, flying in a helicopter and meeting with Russian commanders officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine, although there was no way to know when the video was taken. Putin was reported to have fled the capital Saturday, and his current whereabouts are unknown. DOES THE CHAOS IN RUSSIA HELP UKRAINE ON THE BATTLEFIELD? "These are early days for the counteroffensive. It's going to play out over weeks, maybe even over months," said Blinken on CNN. "To the extent that Russia is now distracted, that Putin has to worry about what's going on inside of Russia, as much as he has to worry about what he's trying to do, not successfully, in Ukraine, I think that creates an additional advantage for the Ukrainians." On CBS, Petraeus suggested the departure of Wagner forces would likely not have "a significant effect on the front lines." "What Ukraine has to do, really, is to continue these probing attacks, this reconnaissance in force, trying to find seams, trying to find areas that they can break through, then to commit their main forces," he said. Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, now a CNN military analyst, predicted the short-lived Wagner insurrection will have a devastating effect on the morale of Russia's front-line troops, who are largely reluctant conscripts. "There is going to be internal rebellion within the military, within the army itself, not just at the senior leader level. There's a lack of trust now in all of the leaders of the Russian force, especially Mr. Putin by the soldiers wearing the uniform." "Poor leadership at the junior level has been a mark of the Russian Army," said Hertling. "Now we're seeing dysfunctional leadership at the senior level where they can't even keep control of part of their force." WILL THE WAGNER FORCES REJOIN THE FIGHT? "The future of the Wagner Group is not completely clear, how many of them will sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense, which was the real bone of contention to begin with," said Petraeus on CNN. "The fallout of Wagner's armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, whether all involved parties will comply fully, what the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense intend to do with Wagner personnel, and if Wagner fighters will cooperate, regardless of Prigozhin's wishes," said the Institute for the Study of War in its overnight assessment. "You have this large force of Prigozhin's Wagner Group, between 25,000 and 40,000 soldiers, either out of the fight or pushed aside or waiting for another operation," said Hertling. "That's a huge chunk. That's probably 10 percent to 15 percent of the total number of military that Russia has facing Ukraine." WHAT DOES PUTIN'S RESPONSE SAY ABOUT HIS MINDSET? Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McCaul took to Twitter to argue that Putin's rush to find a deal to defuse the Prigozhin threat revealed a crucial weakness that counters the conventional wisdom that the Russian leader needs an "off ramp" that allows him to claim victory in order to bring the war to an end. "Putin talked tough in his national address. He sounded like someone preparing for a big fight. But when faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, he backed down," McCaul said in a Twitter thread Saturday. "He didn't escalate. He didn't need a face-saving off-ramp to declare victory. When facing the possibility of really losing to Wagner mercenaries coming into Moscow, he just capitulated." "The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield," he said. "Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis.' FIVE THINGS TO CONSIDER REGARDING YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN'S RUSSIAN REVOLT The Rundown Washington Examiner: Blinken calls war in Ukraine a 'devastating, strategic failure' for Putin Washington Examiner: Russia coup: Wagner group leader Prigozhin says 'We are turning back' after Lukashenko plays mediator Washington Examiner: Five things to consider regarding Yevgeny Prigozhin's Russian revolt Washington Examiner: Christie says Wagner revolt inches 'closer to a resolution' in Ukraine war Washington Examiner: Mike Turner slams declassified Wuhan lab report as 'not sufficient' Washington Examiner: US ambassador to UN urges investigation into Russian use of Iran-supplied drones in Ukraine Washington Examiner: Senate panel overwhelmingly passes defense spending bill Washington Examiner: How long will Sen. Tommy Tuberville block officials from Senate confirmations? Washington Examiner: Huge asteroid to pass by Earth Sunday night Washington Examiner: Opinion: Beyond 'wokeness': Recovering the military's warrior ethos Washington Examiner: Opinion: Too woke to wage war AP: Russian mercenaries' revolt undermines Putin and could lead to further challenges to his rule Washington Post: Russian Crisis Casts Putin In A Weak Light AP: The chaos in Russia is a morale booster for Ukraine as it pushes forward with its counteroffensive AP: Russian defense minister makes first public appearance since mercenary revolt as uncertainty swirls Air & Space Forces Magazine: Army Chief: Ukraine Shows US Must Create 'No-Fly Zone' for Enemies 19fortyfive.com: Russia Has Lost The War In Ukraine Reuters: Taiwan Says Chinese Air Force Approached Close To Island's Coast Military.com: Marines Face No Confirmed Commandant for First Time in 164 Years DefenseScoop: Senate Armed Services Committee Directs Independent Assessment for Creating a Cyber Force Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senate Panel Says It Will Allow A-10 Retirements, But F-22s Appear Safe Defense One: Senate Lawmakers Want to Ax Alternate F-35 Engine Program Breaking Defense: Raytheon Is Now RTX. Here's What That Means for Its Defense Arm AP: Russia Is Likely to Cancel July's Moscow Air Show as Sanctions Affect Attendees and Import of Parts Space News: Anduril Acquires Solid Rocket Motor Manufacturer Adranos DefenseInfo: The Taliban's Opium Policy: "Just say No" Air & Space Forces Magazine: Airmen Compete For 'Top TACP' Title, as Air Force Plans Deep Cuts to Career Field Anchorage Daily News: Military in Alaska Struggles With 'Constant Strain' of Child Care Shortage Air & Space Forces Magazine: Biggest Air Exercise in NATO History Wraps Up: Here Are Some of The Best Photos Calendar MONDAY | JUNE 26 2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report titled, "Transforming European Defense," with Marie Jourdain, visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council; Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow at the CSIS Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/transforming-european-defense-report-launch 2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Strategic and Military Implications of AUKUS," with Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday; and Kurt Campbell, deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for the Indo-Pacific https://www.csis.org/events/conversation 3 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: "Building U.S. Space Force Counterspace Capabilities: An Imperative for America's Defense," with author Charles Galbreath, senior resident fellow for space studies, Mitchell Institute; Maj. Gen. David Miller, director of operations, U.S. Space Force; Robert Atkin, vice president, special space systems, General Atomics; and moderated by retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-27-policy-paper-release TUESDAY | JUNE 27 9 a.m. — National Endowment for Democracy discussion: "Ukraine: How To Maintain The Solidarity and Unity In Europe?" with Dominika Hajdu, GLOBSEC democracy and resilience stream director; Katarina Klingova, senior research fellow at the Centre for Democracy and Resilience; Damon Wilson, NED president and CEO; and Assia Ivantcheva, NED senior director for Europe http://www.ned.org/ 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "Tech Race with China: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy," with Kate Marino, business editor at Axios; Charles Barnett, vice president of the Export-Import Bank's China and Transformational Exports Program; Brendan Groves, vice president of regulatory and policy affairs at Skydio; Helen Zhang, director of Quad and the International Strategy Forum at Schmidt Futures; Emily Weinstein, research fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Center for Strategy and Security; and Peter Engelke, deputy director of foresight at the Atlantic Council's Strategy Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/tech-race-with-china 10:30 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "The Future of U.S.-China Policy," with Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley https://www.aei.org/events/remarks-and-a-conversation-with-amb-nikki-haley 2:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: "Ukraine's Economic Recovery," with Robert Zoellick, former World Bank president and deputy secretary of state https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program book discussion: Tripolar Instability: Nuclear Competition Among the United States, Russia, and China, with author Robert Litwak, director of international security studies at the Wilson Center; and David Sanger, White House and national security correspondent at the New York Times https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-launch-tripolar-instability WEDNESDAY | JUNE 28 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual South China Sea Conference, with Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA); and Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific https://www.csis.org/events/thirteenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference 9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations," with Dennis Wilder, senior fellow at Georgetown University's Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/distinguished-speaker-series 10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How Should the U.S. Reshape its Russia Policy?" with Radjana Dugar-DePonte, representative of the Buryad-Mongol Erkheten Democratic Movement in the U.S. and secretary of the executive committee of the Free Nations League; Yevhen Hlibovytsky, partner at Pro Mova; Dylan Myles-Primakoff, senior program manager at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-should-the-us-reshape-its-russia-policy 11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed?" with Kateryna Shynkaruk, CEIP nonresident scholar; Eric Ciaramella, CEIP senior fellow; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/beyond-counter-offensive 12 p.m. — The Cyber Initiatives Group 2023 Summer Summit featuring "top cyber leaders discussing emerging cyber-related national security challenges" https://register.gotowebinar.com/register 1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the Pentagon THURSDAY | JUNE 29 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "What is Next for North Korea?" with Markus Garlauskas, director of the Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/what-next-north-korea 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Previewing Vilnius," with U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey https://www.csis.org/events/previewing-vilnius-conversation 10 a.m. 300 New Jersey Ave. NW — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies National Security Symposium on "the legal, practical, and policy implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine," with former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department https://fedsoc.org/events. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/TheFederalistSociety 10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: "Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge," with author and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations and senior fellow, Mitchell Institute; Douglas Birkey, executive director, Mitchell Institute; Eric Gunzinger, former F-35 program manager for flight simulation test and evaluation; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-29-policy-paper-release 11 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "Peace in the Pacific," with former U.S. Indo-Pacific commanders, retired Adm. Philip Davidson and Adm. Harry Harris https://www.aei.org/events/peace-in-the-pacific 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism, with author Suzanne Loftus, research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/russia-china-and-the-west-in-the-post-cold-war-era FRIDAY | JUNE 30 9 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law," with Benedict Rogers, co-founder and chief executive of Hong Kong Watch; and Miles Yu, director of Hudson's China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/third-anniversary-hong-kong 12 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club "Headliners Luncheon" with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.press.org/events/headliners/npc-headliners-luncheon FRIDAY | JULY 7 7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news | | | "Prigozhin said that your government has lied to you, this is not a war that NATO started, there are no Nazis in Ukraine, taking down the very premise makes it much more difficult for Putin to continue to turn to the Russian people and say, we should continue to send people to die in this war, which Prigozhin himself has said to the Russian people, the premise is a lie."
| Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, on CBS's Face the Nation
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