| PRIGOZHIN: 'WE DIDN'T WANT TO SPILL RUSSIAN BLOOD': Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin has supposedly been exiled to Belarus after his aborted Saturday march on Moscow, but we don't really know where he is. There are unconfirmed reports this morning his private jet has landed in the Belarusian capital of Minsk. In an 11-minute audio statement issued yesterday, Prigozhin sounded both defiant and apologetic as he portrayed the events of the weekend as an effort to protest demands from the Russian Defense Ministry to dismantle his private army and not an attempt to depose Russian President Vladimir Putin. "It was not our goal to overthrow the regime," Prigozhin said in audio uploaded to his Concord Group's Telegram page. "Our decision to turn back had two factors: we didn't want to spill Russian blood. Secondly, we marched as a demonstration of our protest." "The goal of the march was to not allow the destruction of the Wagner private military company and hold to account the officials who through their unprofessional actions have committed a massive number of errors," said Prigozhin, whose troops were under orders to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1. Prigozhin expressed regret that more than a dozen Russian airmen were killed in the shoot-down of six Russian helicopters and one command and control plane. "They were hitting our forces with bombs and rocket strikes," he said. WAGNER LEADER YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN REVEALS MOTIVATIONS IN FIRST COMMENTS SINCE REBELLION PUTIN: LEADERS OF MUTINY 'BETRAYED THEIR COUNTRY': In a late-night address Moscow time, Putin addressed his nation, attempting to project calm and stability after the chaotic weekend, while claiming his restraint averted a crisis. "I will emphasize that all necessary decisions to neutralize the emerged threat and protect the constitutional system, the life and security of our citizens were made instantly, from the very beginning of the events," Putin said. "An armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any event. Mutiny plotters, despite the loss of adequacy, were bound to realize that." Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name, but said "the leaders of this mutiny" had "betrayed their country … their people … and those whom they drew into their crime." At the same time, he offered an olive branch to Prigozhin's men. "The majority of Wagner Group soldiers and commanders are also Russian patriots, loyal to their people and their state," Putin said. "I will keep my promise. Again, everyone is free to decide on their own … You have the opportunity to continue your service to Russia by signing a contract with the Defence Ministry or other law enforcement or security agency or return home. Those who want to are free to go to Belarus." PUTIN DENOUNCES 'CRIMINAL ACTIVITY' IN FIRST APPEARANCE SINCE WAGNER REBELLION BIDEN: 'WE HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH IT': In his speech, Putin implied that "enemies of Russia, the neo-Nazis in Kiev, their Western patrons," if not supporting the mutiny, were cheering it on from the sidelines. "They wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other; they wanted the military and civilians to die; they wanted Russia to lose eventually, and our society to break up and perish in a bloody feud," he said. In Washington, President Joe Biden insisted the United States regarded the episode to be a domestic matter and maintained a hands-off approach. Sources said U.S. intelligence that indicated Prigozhin was up to something was closely held in order to avoid the perception the U.S. was supporting or fomenting the insurrection. "We gave Putin no excuse to blame this on the West and to blame this on NATO," Biden said. "We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it. This was part of a struggle within the Russian system." "We also made clear to all our allies and partners that the United States was not involved and would not get involved in these events," said NSC spokesman John Kirby at the White House. "We delivered that same message to the Russians themselves through appropriate diplomatic channels." VLADIMIR PUTIN IS CAUGHT BETWEEN PRIGOZHIN AND THE RUSSIAN RUBICON Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Tuesday, July 4, as we observe the Independence Day federal holiday. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! ZELENSKY: 'A HAPPY DAY': In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Monday a "happy day" as he claimed Ukrainian forces continued to make slow but steady progress in pushing Russian forces back from occupied areas. "Our warriors, our frontline positions, areas of active operations at the front," said Zelensky, mentioning the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions specifically. "Today, our warriors have advanced in all directions, and this is a happy day. I wished the guys more days like this." The British Defense Ministry noted that, for the first time, Ukraine had reclaimed territory that Russia has held since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. "Ukrainian Airborne forces have made small advances east from the village of Krasnohorivka, near Donetsk city, which sits on the old Line of Control," the U.K. ministry said in a Twitter update. "Recent multiple concurrent Ukrainian assaults throughout the Donbas have likely overstretched Donetsk People's Republic and Chechen forces operating in this area." In remarks to the British Parliament, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Ukraine has recaptured almost 190 square miles. "That's more territory than Russia seized in its whole winter offensive." "They continue to make gradual but steady tactical progress undertaking major offensive operations on three main axes in the south and eastern Ukraine," Wallace said, noting that while Russia has had some small gains in Luhansk, Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough. "Russia do not appear to have the uncommitted ground forces needed to counter the multiple threats it is now facing from Ukraine, which extends over 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the Bakhmut to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River." VISITING FRONT LINES, ZELENSKY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE MORE MISSILES, VEHICLES, AMMO FOR UKRAINE: The Biden administration is expected to announce another $500 million arms package for Ukraine today that will help replace armored vehicles lost in Ukraine in recent fighting. The package will include 55 more Stryker and Bradley armored vehicles, as well as munitions for Patriot anti-missile missile systems, and precision rockets for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, according to Voice of America. "You're going to see another round of support announced from this administration for Ukraine in terms of weapons and capabilities this week," said Kirby at yesterday's briefing. "Our focus is on making sure that they have what they need to succeed, whether it's training, tools, equipment." WHITE HOUSE TEASES NEW MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE HAPPENING TODAY: LOOK, UP IN THE SKY: The Air Force is conducting flyovers over all 50 states today to mark 100 years of "aerial refueling excellence" More than 150 tankers from 26 bases will take part in the aerial display, including KC-135 Stratotankers, KC-10 Extenders, and KC-46 Pegasus aircraft, according to a release from the Air Mobility Command. "Air refueling propels our Nation's air power across the skies, unleashing its full potential," said Gen. Mike Minihan, head of the Air Mobility Command. "It connects our strategic vision with operational reality, ensuring we can reach any corner of the globe with unwavering speed and precision. Air refueling embodies our resolve to defend freedom and project power, leaving an indelible mark on aviation history." The flyovers mark the first aerial refueling on this date in 1923, when U.S. Army Air Service aviators 1st Lt. Virgil Hine and 1st Lt. Frank W. Seifert, flying a DH-4B, passed gasoline through a gravity hose to another DH-4B piloted by Capt. Lowell H. Smith and 1st Lt. John P. Richter. "One hundred years later, the United States Air Force celebrates these Airmen, and looks to the next generation to bring diversity of thought, push boundaries and find solutions beyond the status quo," the Air Force release said. NOTHING TO SEE HERE: The North American Aerospace Defense Command was compelled to turn to social media yesterday to reassure Montanans they were not being surveilled by another Chinese spy balloon. "#NORAD is aware of reports of a high-altitude balloon over Montana. The object is a privately-owned civilian balloon registered with the #FAA and operating within FAA regulations and requirements," NORAD said in a tweet. "Be assured, when an object is suspicious or unknown, NORAD responds." NORAD SCRAMBLES TO CALM FEARS ANOTHER CHINESE SPY BALLOON IS FLYING OVER US The Rundown Washington Examiner: Putin denounces 'criminal activity' in first appearance since Wagner rebellion Washington Examiner: Russia coup: Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin reveals motivations in first comments since rebellion Washington Examiner: Russia's Prigozhin investigation still open despite supposed truce: Report Washington Examiner: Vladimir Putin is caught between Prigozhin and the Russian Rubicon Washington Examiner: Visiting front lines, Zelensky optimistic about Ukrainian counteroffensive Washington Examiner: White House teases new military aid for Ukraine Washington Examiner: Donald Trump audio emerges: Former president heard discussing classified documents Washington Examiner: NORAD scrambles to calm fears another Chinese spy balloon is flying over US AP: The reason US response to the Russia rebellion has been decidedly cautious New York Times: Russia Drops Criminal Case Against Mercenary Leader, but His Future Remains Uncertain Janes: Russian Air Force suffers significant losses in Wagner mutiny Bloomberg: Xi's Bet on Putin Looks Even More Risky After Russian Mutiny Washington Post: Rebellion Raises Questions About Wagner's Footprint In Africa Wall Street Journal: Kyiv Says It Is Gaining Territory Air & Space Forces Magazine: Americans' Support for Ukraine Aid Stays High After F-16 Decision AP: FBI and Homeland Security ignored 'massive amount' of intelligence before Jan. 6, Senate report says Defense One: US Open to Expanding AUKUS USNI News: White House 'Confident' In AUKUS Plan For Australian Nuclear-Powered Submarine Fleet Marine Corps Times: How This Unit Could Shape The Future Of Infantry Battalions For Decades Marines Corps Times: Corps Loosens Up-Or-Out Policy For Enlisted Marines New York Times: Conditions at Guantanamo Are Cruel and Inhuman, U.N. Investigation Finds Air & Space Forces Magazine: Moody Will Get F-35s to Replace its A-10s, Air Force Says Air & Space Forces Magazine: As Lockheed and Pratt Trade Barbs, F-35 JPO Insists Engine Upgrade Is Best Option Bloomberg: General Dynamics, American Rheinmetall to Compete for US Army Vehicle Space News: UK Joins US Space Command's Commercial Space-Tracking Cell DefenseScoop: DOD Might Not Be on Track to Enable Joint Integration 'Urgently Required' for JADC2, House Panel Warns Military.com: Congress' Move to Scrap the ACFT Sparks Outcry from Army Leadership Military.com: Lawmakers Look to Make Military Housing More Livable with Annual Defense Bill OilPrice.com: "Iran And Uzbekistan Look To Boost Central Asian Cooperation" Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-16 Pilot Overcomes Cancer, Red Tape to Return to the Skies 19fortyfive.com: Could a Wagner Group-Style Rebellion Happen in America? The Cipher Brief: A Life of Secrets: A Candid Conversation with Michael Vickers The Cipher Brief: The Global Consequences of Russia's Revolt Journal of Democracy: Opinion: Michael McFaul: Why He May Soon Be Remembered as "Putin the Weak" Calendar TUESDAY | JUNE 27 9 a.m. — National Endowment for Democracy discussion: "Ukraine: How To Maintain Solidarity and Unity In Europe?" with Dominika Hajdu, GLOBSEC democracy and resilience stream director; Katarina Klingova, senior research fellow at the Centre for Democracy and Resilience; Damon Wilson, NED president and CEO; and Assia Ivantcheva, NED senior director for Europe http://www.ned.org/ 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "Tech Race with China: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy," with Kate Marino, business editor at Axios; Charles Barnett, vice president of the Export-Import Bank's China and Transformational Exports Program; Brendan Groves, vice president of regulatory and policy affairs at Skydio; Helen Zhang, director of Quad and the International Strategy Forum at Schmidt Futures; Emily Weinstein, research fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Matthew Kroenig, vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Center for Strategy and Security; and Peter Engelke, deputy director of foresight at the Atlantic Council's Strategy Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/tech-race-with-china 10:30 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "The Future of U.S.-China Policy," with Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley https://www.aei.org/events/remarks-and-a-conversation-with-amb-nikki-haley 11 a.m. — New America virtual discussion: "Crisis and Coup: Russia and the Wagner Group," with Candace Rondeaux, senior director of New America's Future Frontlines and Planetary Politics https://www.newamerica.org/future-frontlines/events/crisis-and-coup 2:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: "Ukraine's Economic Recovery," with Robert Zoellick, former World Bank president and deputy secretary of state https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program book discussion: Tripolar Instability: Nuclear Competition Among the United States, Russia, and China, with author Robert Litwak, director of international security studies at the Wilson Center; and David Sanger, White House and national security correspondent at the New York Times https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-launch-tripolar-instability WEDNESDAY | JUNE 28 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual South China Sea Conference, with Rep. Jennifer Kiggans (R-VA); and Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific https://www.csis.org/events/thirteenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference 9 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Stabilizing U.S.-China Relations," with Dennis Wilder, senior fellow at Georgetown University's Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/distinguished-speaker-series 10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How Should the U.S. Reshape its Russia Policy?" with Radjana Dugar-DePonte, representative of the Buryad-Mongol Erkheten Democratic Movement in the U.S. and secretary of the executive committee of the Free Nations League; Yevhen Hlibovytsky, partner at Pro Mova; Dylan Myles-Primakoff, senior program manager at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Stephen Sestanovich, senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on Foreign Relations https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-should-the-us-reshape-its-russia-policy 11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Beyond the Counter-offensive: Where Is Ukraine Headed?" with Kateryna Shynkaruk, CEIP nonresident scholar; Eric Ciaramella, CEIP senior fellow; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/beyond-counter-offensive 12 p.m. — The Cyber Initiatives Group 2023 Summer Summit featuring "top cyber leaders discussing emerging cyber-related national security challenges" https://register.gotowebinar.com/register 1:30 p.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the Pentagon THURSDAY | JUNE 29 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "What is Next for North Korea?" with Markus Garlauskas, director of the Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/what-next-north-korea 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Previewing Vilnius," with U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey https://www.csis.org/events/previewing-vilnius-conversation 10 a.m. 300 New Jersey Ave. NW — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies National Security Symposium on "the legal, practical, and policy implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine," with former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department https://fedsoc.org/events. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/TheFederalistSociety 10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: "Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge," with author and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations and senior fellow, Mitchell Institute; Douglas Birkey, executive director, Mitchell Institute; Eric Gunzinger, former F-35 program manager for flight simulation test and evaluation; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-29-policy-paper-release 11 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "Peace in the Pacific," with former U.S. Indo-Pacific commanders, retired Adm. Philip Davidson and Adm. Harry Harris https://www.aei.org/events/peace-in-the-pacific 12 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies lunch discussion: "Building Deterrence: Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond," with Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political military affairs; and Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/06/29/building-deterrence-security-cooperation 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism, with author Suzanne Loftus, research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/russia-china-and-the-west-in-the-post-cold-war-era FRIDAY | JUNE 30 9 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law," with Benedict Rogers, co-founder and chief executive of Hong Kong Watch; and Miles Yu, director of Hudson's China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/third-anniversary-hong-kong 12 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club "Headliners Luncheon" with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.press.org/events/headliners/npc-headliners-luncheon FRIDAY | JULY 7 7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news | | | "It probably gives him too much credit. At one point, I thought, could this be staged, but you wouldn't stage something I think that makes you look so weak. Because really dictators, authoritarians rest on three principles. One is there has to be fear in the population. Secondly, you have to look invincible. Third, there can be no alternatives."
| Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, on Fox, rejecting the idea that the Prigozhin mutiny was a ruse to cover the movement of Wagner troops to Belarus.
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