Rise of the Black Republican

Axios Sneak Peek By Josh Kraushaar · May 21, 2023 Josh Kraushaar here. Thanks for joining Sunday Sneak Peek, our weekly look ahead at the forces shaping American politics. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,349 words ... 5 minutes.     1 big thing: Rise of the Black Republican Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images   This week marks a milestone for African American Republicans in politics: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the only Black Republican in the Senate, will formally launch his presidential campaign in North Charleston, South Carolina, tomorrow. Scott's historic announcement follows a resounding primary victory last Tuesday by Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is seeking to become the state's first Black governor of Kentucky. Driving the news: Cameron, a protégé of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who also is backed by former President Trump, comfortably won a hotly contested GOP primary — even as he faced a barrage of attacks from his top rival. Despite being outspent and losing out on a last-minute endorsement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Cameron won by a whopping 26-point margin. He's seeking to become the first Black governor in a state where 86% of the population is white. Scott, meanwhile, offers a compelling alternative to Republicans looking past Trump and DeSantis, and starts out with a hefty $21.9 million in campaign cash from his Senate campaign account. Why it matters: One of the more overlooked dynamics in our politics is that voters are growing a bit less polarized by race, even as they're more divided along educational lines. Republicans have made small, but notable, inroads with African American men during the Trump era. That momentum has been reflected in a growing number of Black Republican candidates. As we wrote in February, Republicans elected five Black members of Congress, all from states and districts with majority-white constituencies. One of those lawmakers is Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who has emerged as a top conservative surrogate in Congress and on cable news shows. Zoom in: On the campaign trail, Scott will be talking about how his inspirational personal story ("from cotton to Congress") and abiding Christian faith shaped his conservative values. He'll be in Sioux City, Iowa, on Wednesday and Merrimack, New Hampshire, on Thursday for the kickoff. His campaign has already reserved $6 million in ads on television and radio in those critical early voting states. Scott received his first Senate endorsement this week — from Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). That's one more senatorial endorsement than DeSantis has secured so far. Reality check: Both Scott and Cameron face serious hurdles in winning their respective races. Scott is a sunny optimist in a party in which grievance has been the GOP's common currency. He's polling in the low single digits, despite launching a presidential exploratory committee in April. Cameron is facing one of the most popular governors in the country, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.), who has built a bulwark of bipartisan support in the conservative state — largely through his effective and empathetic response to natural disasters and mass shootings. The bottom line: Black voters have long been more socially conservative than other Democratic voters, but most have maintained their Democratic affiliation. But as our politics polarizes along cultural lines, we're seeing culturally conservative Black voters more comfortable associating with the Republican Party. Scott is a textbook example of that dynamic — he gravitated toward the party that reflected his values as he entered political life. If his campaign catches on, he'd be uniquely capable of diversifying the Republican coalition. Share this story.         2. 📺 Spot of the week: Dinging DeSantis Screenshot: MAGA Inc. ad   MAGA Inc., the super PAC boosting former President Trump, is up with a new ad hitting DeSantis for supporting a "FairTax," which would eliminate income and payroll taxes in favor of a 23% national sales tax. Why it matters: The FairTax has been a longstanding priority for fiscal conservatives, who argue the current tax system is regressive. But it's a politically damaging vote that Democrats often use against certain Republicans because they can paint them as tax hikers. It's another example of Trump allies using an attack line that Democrats have long championed. Trump's campaign has hit DeSantis for supporting reforms to entitlement programs — also a longstanding Republican priority. Details: The ad, airing on cable news networks and local Iowa and New Hampshire TV stations, tags DeSantis as "Ron DeSalesTax." An animated DeSantis bounces around as a jingle to the tune of "Old McDonald Had a Farm" plays. The jingle begins: "Ron DeSalesTax had a plan / to make you pay more / with a sales tax here, and a sales tax there / Here a tax, there a tax, everywhere a sales tax." The narrator says: "We can't afford Ron DeSalesTax." The bottom line: Trump hasn't paid a price among Republican voters for breaking with conservatives. If this line of attack has worked for Democrats, it may well work for Trump.         3. 📊 Poll of the week: New York state of funk Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   A new Siena Poll shows New York state voters are souring on their elected leaders — all Democrats — and strongly support toughening bail laws for offenders accused of serious crimes. Why it matters: The poll suggests the mini red wave that hit New York in last year's midterms hasn't subsided. Republicans could remain competitive in Democratic-leaning House seats that GOP candidates won in 2022. By the numbers: For the first time, more New York voters view Gov. Kathy Hochul unfavorably (45%) than favorably (40%). Her job approval rating is 50%. President Biden's approval rating in the deep-blue state is just 51%, with 47% disapproving. He won New York with 61% of the vote in 2020. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who is up for re-election in 2024, held only a 41% favorability rating. Nearly one-third of New Yorkers (31%) viewed her unfavorably. A majority of New York City voters view Mayor Eric Adams unfavorably, with just 36% viewing him positively. Fewer than half of statewide Democrats approve of him. Even Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is only viewed positively by 50% of New Yorkers, with 38% viewing him negatively. Between the lines: Concern over crime in New York, which fueled GOP gains in the House, hasn't subsided. The poll found 59% believe crime is a "very serious" problem in the state. Most support toughening the state's bail laws. Reality check: For all the Democrats' problems in New York, it's still deep blue territory. Trump's unfavorable rating is a whopping 64%.         A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Your daily news in 10 minutes     Hear the most important news and interesting stories with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo fills you in on what you need to know each weekday morning. Listen for free in your favorite podcast app.     4. 📖 Reads of the week: Cracks in the granite Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   1. "NC enacts new abortion restrictions as Republicans override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto" (News & Observer) Why it matters: Of all the states that have enacted strict abortion regulations since Roe v. Wade was overturned, North Carolina is the most competitive at the state level. It's also holding a hotly contested governor's race next year. North Carolina hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 2008. But if Democrats think they can flip suburban swing voters over the GOP's abortion policies, the Tar Heel State will be one to watch in 2024. 2. "Democrats race to avoid a Biden embarrassment in New Hampshire" (Politico) Why it matters: It's hard not to think Biden holds a grudge against New Hampshire, the state where he placed fifth in the 2020 presidential primary. Because the Granite State has a Republican governor and GOP legislature, Democrats can't unilaterally align their primary date with DNC preferences — even if they wanted to. Despite that reality, party officials are poised to penalize New Hampshire for not moving back its first-in-the-nation primary. Democrats argue they want to diversify the early window of presidential primaries. But after Georgia's GOP leadership declined to move its primary date into the early voting window, they faced no penalties. New Hampshire leans Democratic. But if enough voters are alienated by Biden's anti-New Hampshire bias, it could tip into the GOP column. 3. "Justice's debts mount as he launches US Senate run" (Charleston Gazette-Mail) Why it matters: Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) looks strong in West Virginia's Senate race. But opposition research against him is just beginning to trickle out. One of his biggest vulnerabilities: his personal finances. Those ethical questions give Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), running to his right in the GOP primary, a fighting chance to win the GOP nomination.         A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Your daily news in 10 minutes     Hear the most important news and interesting stories with the Axios Today podcast. Host Niala Boodhoo fills you in on what you need to know each weekday morning. Listen for free in your favorite podcast app.   📬 Thanks for starting your week with us. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. 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