Daily on Defense: N. Korea’s failure to launch, China’s failure to engage, debt deal vote tonight would limit defense spending, quiet night in Kyiv

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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SPY SATELLITE LAUNCH FIZZLES: After a warning from Pyongyang that a "space mission" was imminent and a subsequent launch of a multi-stage missile that triggered air raid alerts and sirens in Japan and South Korea, North Korea's attempt to put its first spy satellite into orbit ended with an unceremonious crash into the sea.

"The launched new-type satellite carrier rocket 'Chollima-1' crashed into the West Sea of Korea along with the loss of thrust because of abnormal start of the second-stage motor after the first-stage separation while making a normal flight," North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration said in an unusually prompt admission of failure.

The failure of the new rocket is a setback to Kim Jong Un's effort to join countries that have "eyes in the sky" to monitor their adversaries, and the country's space agency vowed to quickly try again.

"The NADA said that it would thoroughly investigate the serious defects revealed in the satellite launch, take urgent scientific and technological measures to overcome them and conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests," according to the state-run Korean Central News agency.

US: 'A BRAZEN VIOLATION': The White House was quick to condemn the launch, believed to be testing ballistic missile technology with the potential to reach all of the continental U.S., as "a brazen violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions," that "raises tensions, and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region and beyond."

"This claimed space launch involved technologies that are directly related to the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] intercontinental ballistic missile program," said NSC spokesman Adam Hodge in a statement issued last night. "The president and his national security team are assessing the situation in close coordination with our allies and partners. We urge all countries to condemn this launch and call on the DPRK to come to the table for serious negotiations."

"The door has not closed on diplomacy but Pyongyang must immediately cease its provocative actions and instead choose engagement," said Hodge. "The United States will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the American homeland and the defense of our Republic of Korea and Japanese allies."

AUSTIN IN JAPAN: The provocative launch comes as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrives in the region for consultations with allies and to attend the International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore later this week.

Today, Austin is in Tokyo meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada and has a joint press conference scheduled with Hamada at 9:45 p.m. Washington time, which will be livestreamed on the Pentagon's website.

Austin is expected to compliment Japan's recent announcement that it will embark on a program to substantially upgrade its military capabilities, in particular "its decisions to acquire a counterstrike capability and to substantially increase its defense budget over the next five years," according to the Pentagon.

Austin had hoped to meet with his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu on the sidelines of the Singapore conference, but the Pentagon's entreaty was rejected out of hand by Beijing.

"This is far from the first time that the PRC has rejected invitations to communicate from the secretary, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or other department officials. Frankly, it's just the latest in a litany of excuses," a senior defense official told the Washington Examiner's Ryan King.

Tensions between the U.S. and China remain high, as evidenced by the latest incident in which a Chinese J-16 fighter jet crossed directly in front of a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft flying in international airspace over the South China Sea, creating a turbulent wake that shook the American plane. See the video here.

CHINESE FIGHTER PILOT 'PERFORMED AN UNNECESSARILY AGGRESSIVE MANEUVER,' PENTAGON SAYS

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: The House of Representatives meets at 2 p.m. to consider the "Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023," the debt ceiling deal hammered out by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and President Joe Biden over the weekend.

The first votes are anticipated around 3:30 p.m. in what's expected to be a contentious, marathon session that will last well into the night, with the final votes likely in the 8 p.m. hour.

The 99-page compromise bill would cap defense spending for the next fiscal year at $886 billion, which to the dismay of many Republicans, is exactly what Biden proposed, and would further limit defense spending in fiscal 2025 to $895 billion, a mere 1% increase.

Before the deal was announced, there was bipartisan agreement in the House and Senate Armed Services Committees that the Biden proposal would need a substantial plus-up. The debt deal, if passed in its current form, would kill that option.

"I know you can't get the perfect … But what I will not do is adopt the Biden defense budget and call it a success," complained Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Fox News. "I like Kevin a lot, but don't tell me that the Biden defense budget fully funds the military. We've attacked it for a year as Republicans because it takes the Navy in decline at a time we need a larger Navy to contain China."

But Graham seems powerless to stop the bill from advancing. If it passes the House tonight with a combination of moderate Democratic and Republican votes, it will need a similar bipartisan effort to get 60 votes in the Senate.

"This bill will pass," predicted Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), a member of the House Freedom Caucus. "Some Republicans will vote for it. Some Democrats will vote for it. It will go to the Senate. It will pass in the Senate. It will be signed by the president. The United States will not default," he said on CNN.

The deal faces fierce opposition from both the far-right and far-left wings of both parties. Some liberal Democrats think Biden gave away too much, while some conservative Republicans say the deal falls far short of what McCarthy promised.

"No one sent us here to borrow an additional $4 trillion to get absolutely nothing in return, but at best, if I'm being really generous, a spending freeze for a couple of years. That's it. That's about what you get," said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) at a noon press conference. "If you're out there watching this, every one of my colleagues, be very clear, not one Republican should vote for this deal. It is a bad deal."

DEBT CEILING DEAL FINALIZES BIDEN'S PROPOSED DEFENSE BUDGET

ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Oslo, Norway, to take part in an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers, after first stopping in Sweden to consult with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom.

Blinken's Nordic trip comes as Biden is working to overcome the objections of newly-reelected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's objections to Sweden's admission to NATO.

"I spoke to Erdogan and congratulated Erdogan," Biden said Monday. "He still wants to work on something on the F-16s. I told him we wanted a deal with Sweden, so let's get that done. And so we'll be back in touch with one another."

On Friday, Blinken meets in Finland with the leaders of the newest NATO member, Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto. He's also scheduled to deliver a speech in which he will call Russia's aggression against Ukraine "a strategic failure" and promise the U.S. will continue to support Ukraine's "defense of its territory, sovereignty, and democracy in pursuit of a just and durable peace," according to the State Department.

This week, the U.S. is expected to announce another aid package for Ukraine, valued at $300 million, that will be heavy on ammunition, including additional munitions for drones.

ALL QUIET OVERNIGHT IN KYIV: After Russia blamed Ukraine for a series of drone strikes against Moscow, Kyiv was bracing for retaliation overnight, but for the first time in a while, the skies were not filled with Russian missiles and Iranian-made Shahed drones.

"A Russian independent outlet claimed that the drone strikes predominantly targeted areas near Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and other elite neighborhoods in Moscow," according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.

Russia claimed to have shot down or downed the drones with electronic warfare, but images on social media showed minor damage to an apartment building. Ukraine denied any "direct" responsibility for the attack.

"What is happening in my assessment is that these are part of Ukraine's, what we call 'shaping operations,'" said former Defense Secretary Mark Esper on CNN this morning. "You've seen everything from rail cars being derailed, refineries being bombed, other things happening in Russia and in Crimea."

"You have the attack last week by armed anti-Putin militia Russians in Belgorod," Esper said. "So I think this is all part of the shaping operations designed to distract Russia to make them move forces around the battlefield and do other things so that the Ukrainians can have the most successful operation possible."

UK ENDORSES UKRAINE'S RIGHT TO ATTACK RUSSIAN TERRITORY DESPITE US ANXIETY

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Putin renews 'dirty bomb' nuclear plant threat after drone attack

Washington Examiner: UK endorses Ukraine's right to attack Russian territory despite US anxiety

Washington Examiner: Four Russian soldiers charged with torture of Ukrainians in Kherson

Washington Examiner: Moscow and Kyiv attacks underline Ukraine war's escalation

Washington Examiner: Chinese fighter pilot 'performed an unnecessarily aggressive maneuver,' Pentagon says

Washington Examiner: China snubs meeting request from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin

Washington Examiner: Debt ceiling deal finalizes Biden's proposed defense budget

Washington Examiner: GOP leadership scrambles to stave off 'Team McCarthy' defections on debt limit bill

Washington Examiner: Gaetz says McCarthy's collaboration with Democrats on debt could trigger motion to vacate

Washington Examiner: McCaul revives Blinken contempt of Congress after backlash over Afghan cable deal

Washington Examiner: Biden investigation: Wray headed for contempt after defying 'criminal scheme' FBI subpoena

Washington Examiner: DeSantis blasts military for going 'woke' and embracing 'DEI' and 'political ideologies'

Washington Examiner: Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz to retire

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Elon Musk brings the wrong message to Beijing

Washington Examiner: Opinion: TikTok's threat to American data must be a top national security concern

AP: Moscow drone attack exposes Russia's vulnerabilities, fuels criticism of military

Reuters: Dismissing Russian criticism, U.S. Senator Graham praises Ukrainian resistance

AP: Australian general says US warns war crime allegations could prevent work with Australia's SAS

Military.com: Major General Convicted of Forcible Kissing to Retire as Colonel

Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52 Re-Engining to Get New Program Baseline in the Fall, with 'Some' Cost Increase

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian-Speaking Airmen Translate Rare Account of Ukraine War Through Invader's Eyes

Bloomberg: F-35 Jet's Overworked Engines May Cost Pentagon $38 Billion in Upkeep

19fortyfive.com: Congress Should Listen to U.S. Air Force on F-35 Engine Upgrade

Defense One: F-35 Costs Still Climbing, as Pentagon Updates the Fleet

Breaking Defense: Poland Invests in Early Warning with 2 Swedish Planes, Eyes Aerostats

Air & Space Forces Magazine: In a First, USAF F-35s Join Multinational Arctic Challenge Exercise

The Cipher Brief: Exclusive Interview: Erdogan's Next Five Years

The Cipher Brief: Now is the Time to Split NSA and CYBERCOM

The Cipher Brief: War-Fighting is Getting a Fresh Look, With an AI Focus

19fortyfive.com: Sorry, Putin: Russia's Su-57 is No F-35 or F-22 Stealth Fighter

19fortyfive.com: Is the Russian Navy Dying?

Breaking Defense: Opinion: Wittman: Why manned-unmanned teaming could be the Fourth Offset for America's military

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MAY 31

9:30 a.m. 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion on "Post Election Transatlantic Relations with Turkey," with former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq James Jeffrey, chairman of the Wilson Center's Middle East Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/post-election

10 a.m. 538 Dirksen — Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing: "Countering China: Advancing U.S. National Security, Economic Security, and Foreign Policy," with Elizabeth Rosenberg, assistant Treasury secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes; Paul Rosen, assistant Treasury secretary for investment security; Thea Rozman Kendler, assistant Commerce secretary for export administration; and Matthew Axelrod, assistant Commerce secretary for export enforcement https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/countering-china

10 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion: Russia in Africa, with author Samuel Ramani; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

10:45 a.m. Tokyo, Japan — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin joint press conference with Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "Partnership of Freedom: AUKUS Viewed by its Architects," with former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson; former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison; former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, fellow at Hudson; Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and John Lee, Hudson senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/partnership-freedom-aukus-viewed-its-architects

12 p.m. 8100 Loisdale Rd., Springfield, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Belvoir Chapter discussion with Robert Turk, acting CIO and IT director at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency https://www.eventbrite.com/e/afcea-belvoir

2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies lecture: "Russia and the Global Digital (Dis)Order," with Stanislav Budnitsky, James H. Billington fellow at the Wilson Center; former CNN foreign affairs correspondent Jill Dougherty, global fellow at the Wilson Center; and Shawn Powers, chief strategy officer at the U.S. Agency for Global Media https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/james-h-billington-lecture

2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation Midge Decter's Enduring Impact Memorial Conference, with opening remarks from Kevin Roberts, president of Heritage; and Edwin Feulner, founder and former president of Heritage https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/event

2:15 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: "Accountability for Russian Atrocities in Ukraine," with testimony from Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

4:45 p.m. 1630 Crescent Pl. NW — Meridian Center for Diplomatic Engagement discussion: "Blueprints for a Modernized U.S. Diplomatic Service," with Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD); Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN); and Kylie Atwood, CNN national security correspondent https://meridianinternational.my.site.com/linvioevents

THURSDAY | JUNE 1

9:30 a.m. Colorado Springs, Colorado — President Joe Biden delivers the commencement address for the Class of 2023 at the U.S. Air Force Academy's Falcon Stadium

10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: "How Will Presidential Election Results Affect Turkey's Regional Outlook?" with Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; Alan Makovsky, senior fellow for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress; Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington; and Gonul Tol, founding director of the MEI Turkey program https://mei.edu/events/how-will-presidential-election-results-affect-turkeys-regional-outlook

2 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: "Sudan in Conflict and the Implications for the U.S. Footprint in Africa," with retired Marine Corps Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, former commander, U.S. Africa Command; former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy; and Morgan Vina, JINSA vice president for government affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

FRIDAY | JUNE 2

9 a.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — Arms Control Association 2023 annual conference with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan; and Alexander Kmentt, director of disarmament, arms control, and nonproliferation at the Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs https://www.armscontrol.org/2023AnnualMeeting

8:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. Saturday, Singapore) Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers plenary remarks at the IISS 20th Shangri-La Dialogue, one day before China's Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu is scheduled make a major speech https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 7

4:30 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: "Strategic Nuclear Deterrent Modernization," with Rob Wittman (R-VA), vice chairman, House Armed Services Committee https://www.eventbrite.com/e/us-congressman-rob-wittman

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I will wear the arrest warrant issued by Putin's corrupt and immoral government as a Badge of Honor. To know that my commitment to Ukraine has drawn the ire of Putin's regime brings me immense joy. I will continue to stand with and for Ukraine's freedom until every Russian soldier is expelled from Ukrainian territory."
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) in a statement issued in response to Russia's Interior Ministry issuing a warrant for his arrest.
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