Morning Jolt: The GOP Wave the Pundits Didn’t Want to See

On the menu today: From the FiveThirtyEight forecast to the big-picture stories in the mainstream newspapers, the story is that Republicans have enjoyed a late burst of momentum in this year's midterm elections. What doesn't quite smell right to me is that the dynamics changed so dramatically in a span of three weeks or so. Not that much has changed in the country in the past month, suggesting that this was always a GOP wave year, and it's just that a lot of people who cover and analyze the campaigns just didn't want to see it.

Is This a Late Surge to the GOP? Or Was It Always There?

I understand that in the final weeks of a campaign, polls are conducted more frequently and by a wider range of organizations, opportunities for a trailing candidate to turn everything around dwindle, early votes get cast, and "the cement dries."

I'm neither a Nate Silver superfan nor a hater; I think he calls them as he sees them. FiveThirtyEight runs a model that calculates the likelihood of each party to control the U.S. House of Representatives ...

WITH JIM GERAGHTY November 04 2022 WITH JIM GERAGHTY November 04 2022 The GOP Wave the Pundits Didn't Want to See On the menu today: From the FiveThirtyEight forecast to the big-picture stories in the mainstream newspapers, the story is that Republicans have enjoyed a late burst of momentum in this year's midterm elections. What doesn't quite smell right to me is that the dynamics changed so dramatically in a span of three weeks or so. Not that much has changed in the country in the past month, suggesting that this was always a GOP wave year, and it's just that a lot of people who cover and analyze the campaigns just didn't want to see it. Is This a Late Surge to the GOP? Or Was It Always There? I understand that in the final weeks of a campaign, polls are conducted more frequently and by a wider range of organizations, opportunities for a trailing candidate to turn everything around dwindle, early votes get cast, and "the cement dries." I'm neither a Nate Silver superfan nor a hater; I think he calls them as he sees them. FiveThirtyEight runs a model that calculates the likelihood of each party to control the U.S. House of Representatives ...   READ MORE

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