Daily on Defense: The National Defense Strategy, Biden’s hope to to kill the sea-launched cruise missile, Putin’s nuclear denial, no to ‘no first use’

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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CHINA 'CONTINUES TO CLOSE THE GAP': The unclassified version of the Biden administration's National Defense Strategy, which was delivered to Congress in a classified version last March, has been released by the Pentagon. The 80-page document includes the Nuclear Posture Review and the Missile Defense Review.

"The key theme of the NDS is the need to sustain and strengthen U.S. deterrence with the People's Republic of China as our pacing challenge," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at yesterday's rollout. "As the president's National Security Strategy notes, the PRC is the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order and increasingly, the power to do so."

"In many areas such as conventional ballistic and hypersonic missile technologies, the PRC continues to close the gap with the United States, and will likely continue to develop and expand its missile capabilities," the strategy stated, noting China "has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces and established a nascent nuclear triad, and likely intends to possess at least 1,000 deliverable warheads by the end of the decade."

BIDEN NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY SEES CHINA AS TOP CHALLENGE

RUSSIA: The strategy, which was finalized during the opening days of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, labels Russia an "acute" threat.

"We chose the word 'acute' carefully," Austin said. "Unlike China, Russia can't systemically challenge the United States over the long term. But Russian aggression does pose an immediate and sharp threat to our interests and values, and Putin's reckless war of choice against Ukraine, the worst threat to European security since the end of World War II, has made that very clear for the whole world."

The document said the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine "clearly signals the re-emergence of a more militaristic Russia that seeks to overturn the post-Cold War European security system and challenge the broader rules-based international order."

ASH CARTER'S RUSSIAN EVOLUTION

IRAN: "Iran does not today possess a nuclear weapon and we currently believe it is not pursuing one," the strategy said, labeling Iran's recent activities "of great concern."

In his briefing to reporters, Austin went further. "Iran is moving ahead on its nuclear program, supporting dangerous armed proxies and even exporting drones that Russia is using to terrorize Ukrainian civilians," he said.

The strategy reaffirmed that U.S. policy is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed state, saying the Pentagon "will continue to support U.S. interagency and international efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon."

NO TO 'NO FIRST USE': For the first time, the Pentagon has combined the Nuclear Posture Review — a statement of U.S. nuclear doctrine — and the Missile Defense Review into a single statement of defense strategy.

And despite President Joe Biden making an impassioned speech as vice president in 2017 advocating the U.S. adopt a policy of "no first use" of nuclear weapons, the Pentagon document rejected the idea.

"We conducted a thorough review of a broad range of options for nuclear declaratory policy — including both No First Use and Sole Purpose policies — and concluded that those approaches would result in an unacceptable level of risk in light of the range of non-nuclear capabilities being developed and fielded by competitors that could inflict strategic-level damage to the United States and its Allies and partners," the Nuclear Posture Review portion of the document said.

The Pentagon said it needs to reserve the right to use nuclear weapons first in the event an adversary attacks an ally "with non-nuclear means that could produce devastating effects."

The report also revived Biden's opposition to the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) program and advocated its cancellation, as well as the cancellation of the aging B83-1 gravity bomb, which is becoming expensive to maintain.

The sea-launched missile, which is considered a "tactical" weapon, has been advocated by U.S. commanders as a way to provide the president with maximum options in the event of a nuclear showdown and has been supported by a bipartisan majority in Congress.

At a background briefing for reporters, a senior defense official said, "I think as it stands right now, there is no need to develop SLCM-N," noting that in the real-world example in Ukraine, it would have little utility. "Our deterrence posture's firm. Russia has been deterred from attacking NATO," the official said. "It has zero value because even at the full-funding level, it would not arrive until 2035."

Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO) dismissed the calls for cancellation of the nuclear sea-launched cruise missile as "hollow," noting that in the past, similar decisions "have been easily overturned by Congress" on a bipartisan basis. "I will continue to advocate for continuing progress on the SLCM-N and demanding that the Administration fully fund the litany of priorities encapsulated in these reviews," he said in a statement.

BIDEN MOVES TO CANCEL TRUMP NUCLEAR CRUISE MISSILE PROGRAM

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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ROGERS: STRATEGY 'LACKS A CLEAR PLAN': Members of Congress have seen the more detailed classified version for months, so the reaction to the public version is no surprise.

Despite "unprecedented threats from China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran," Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) faulted the Biden strategy for lacking "a clear plan to deter and defeat these threats."

"We must come to the harsh realization that our nation is at risk of becoming vulnerable unless we make a concerted effort to boost our national defense now," Rogers, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement. "We need to increase the production of munitions and weapons. We need to rebuild our naval fleet to deter Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. We also need to recognize that Russia and China's nuclear arsenals are growing at an unprecedented clip."

"The focus of our military should be wielding the most capable and lethal force to deter and defeat our adversaries — our warfighters should not be distracted with far-left climate priorities," said Rogers, who also called for full funding for the SLCM-N.

PUTIN 'NO NEED FOR THAT': Speaking at a conference of international foreign policy experts in Moscow yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted he has no intention of striking Ukraine with nuclear weapons.

"We see no need for that," Putin said in a speech laced with diatribes against the U.S. and the West. "There is no point in that, neither political nor military."

Putin claimed his references to "all means available" to protect Russia were in response to threats from the West, and he mentioned former British Prime Minister Liz Truss, who Putin said expressed a willingness to wage nuclear warfare before she took office.

"What were we supposed to think?" Putin said. "We saw that as a coordinated position, an attempt to blackmail us."

Meanwhile, the U.S. has detected no movement of nuclear weapons that would indicate they were being prepared for use, and yesterday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said worries about a possible false flag event involving a radioactive "dirty bomb" have yet to come true.

"We have not seen anything to indicate that Putin has made a decision to use a dirty bomb," Austin said.

RUSSIA THREATENS ELON MUSK'S STARLINK SATELLITES

WEST PLAYING 'DANGEROUS, BLOODY, DIRTY' GAME: Putin spent considerable time in his rambling speech excoriating the U.S. and railing against the West, which he accused of playing a "dangerous, bloody, and, I would say, dirty" game, and complaining that Russian proposals "to build confidence and a collective security system" were simply tossed aside.

"Sitting things out can hardly work in the modern world. He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind, as the saying goes. The crisis has indeed taken on a global dimension and has impacted everyone," Putin said.

But at one point, there seemed to be a glimmer of realization that for the war in Ukraine to end on anything close to Putin's terms — and for Russia to resume its place in the world, there would have to be a diplomatic resolution.

"I have always believed in the power of common sense," he said. "Therefore, I am convinced that sooner or later, both the new centers of the multipolar international order and the West will have to start a dialogue on an equal footing about a common future for us all, and the sooner, the better, of course."

You can read his full speech on the Kremlin's website.

PUTIN: 'NEW WORLD ORDER' WILL COMPENSATE FOR RUSSIA'S LOSSES IN UKRAINE WAR

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden national defense strategy sees China as top challenge

Washington Examiner: Biden moves to cancel Trump nuclear cruise missile program

Washington Examiner: Ukraine to get advanced air defense systems from US 'early next month,' Austin says

Washington Examiner: Putin: 'New world order' will compensate for Russia's losses in Ukraine war

Washington Examiner: Ash Carter's Russian evolution

Washington Examiner: What should the US strategic objectives in Ukraine actually be?

Washington Examiner: Russia threatens Elon Musk's Starlink satellites

Washington Examiner: Is Elon Musk paving the way for a Trump return to Twitter?

Washington Examiner: 40 House Republicans call on Pentagon to rescind abortion travel payments

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Australia's worthy stand against Qatar's morally bankrupt World Cup

Yonhap: N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea: S. Korean military

AP: Russia's Putin Says He Won't Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine

Reuters: No Indication Russian Nuclear Drills Are 'Cover Activity' — Pentagon

Wall Street Journal: Russia Intensifies Strikes, Cutting Off Power

New York Times: U.S. Outlines Its Program To Keep Sensitive Weapons On Battlefield In Ukraine

Washington Post: Russia's security service works to subvert Moldova's pro-Western government

USA Today: China Targeting U.S. Voters With Anti-Democracy Narratives In Election, Analysts Warn

Bloomberg: Taiwan Tensions Raise Alarms Over Risks to World's Subsea Cables

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New National Defense Strategy Mum on Force Structure

Air & Space Forces Magazine: DOD Aims to Improve Missile Defense, Modernize Nuclear Weapons as 'Backstop' of Deterrence

Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-1s Carry Naval Mines for Bomber Task Force Mission

Defense News: Air Force to Replace Kadena F-15 Squadrons With Rotational Fighters

Red Snow: Appendix Can Stay for National Guard Going to Antarctica Remote Post Mission

Task & Purpose: The Navy's Most Advanced Aircraft Carrier Is Officially Flying A Brand New Battle Flag At Sea

19fortyfive.com: Putin's War in Ukraine Looks Like a Historic Mistake

19fortyfive.com: Ukraine's 5 Most Powerful Weapons to Fight Russia

19fortyfive.com: NGAD Surprise: Air Force's Sixth-Generation Fighter Coming Soon?

19fortyfive.com: F-15EX: Why Does the Air Force Need This Plane?

The Cipher Brief: The US Needs a Cybersecurity Strategy Sooner, Not Later

The Cipher Brief: Morocco's Template for Dealing with Terrorism

Calendar

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28

9 a.m. — Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, with Richard Johnson, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and countering weapons of mass destruction policy https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/28/2022

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conversation: "DHS Cyber Priorities for the Coming Year," with Rob Silvers, undersecretary for policy, Department of Homeland Security, and Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser, homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/dhs-cyber-priorities-coming-year

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18 

TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the United States include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 2

TBA Simi Valley, California — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute annual Reagan National Defense Forum https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8

TBA — Aspen Strategy Group's "Aspen Security Forum: D.C. Edition" https://web.cvent.com/event/

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We see no need for that. …There is no point in that, neither political nor military."
Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a conference of international foreign policy experts in Moscow, insisting he has no intention of striking Ukraine with nuclear weapons
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