| Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty September 23, 2014 America at War . . . Again . . . in a New Country This Time This just handed to me: The Islamic State morning staff meeting at the municipal building in Raqaa, Syria, is postponed indefinitely. The Islamic State wanted our attention with those barbaric beheadings. Now they've got it. The United States and five Arab allies launched a wide-ranging air campaign against the Islamic State and at least one other extremist group in Syria for the first time early Tuesday, targeting the groups' bases, training camps and checkpoints in at least four provinces, according to the United States military and Syrian activists. The intensity of the attacks struck a fierce opening blow against the jihadists of the Islamic State, scattering its forces and damaging the network of facilities it has built in Syria that helped fuel its seizure of a large part of Iraq this year. Separate from the attacks on the Islamic State, the United States Central Command, or Centcom, said that American forces acting alone "took action" against "a network of seasoned Al Qaeda veterans" from the Khorasan group in Syria to disrupt "imminent attack planning against the United States and Western interests." Officials did not reveal where or when such attacks might take place.
Al Qaeda cut ties with the Islamic State earlier this year because the group's leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, disobeyed orders from Al Qaeda to fight only in Iraq. Just days ago, American officials said the Khorasan group, led by a shadowy figure who was once in Osama bin Laden's inner circle, had emerged in the past year as the Syria-based cell most intent on launching a terror attack on the United States or on its installations overseas. The latest campaign opened with multiple strikes before dawn that focused on the Islamic State's de facto capital, the city of Raqqa, and on its bases in the surrounding countryside. Other strikes hit in the provinces of Deir al-Zour and Hasaka, whose oil wells the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, have exploited to finance its operations. The guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG 58) launches Tomahawk Land-Attack Missiles (TLAM) against ISIL targets. 
The good news is that the world has fewer Islamic State members walking around this morning. The bad news is that we've got a long way to go before we have anything resembling a reliable partner on the ground: The army base in Iraq's western Anbar province had been under siege by Islamic State militants for a week, so when a convoy of armored Humvees rolled up at the gate, the Iraqi soldiers at Camp Saqlawiyah believed saviors had arrived. But this was no rescue attempt. The vehicles were driven by militants on suicide missions, and within seconds on Sunday the base had become a bloody scene of multiple bombings. On Monday, a day after the attack, five survivors — including three officers — said that between 300 and 500 soldiers were missing and believed to be dead, kidnapped or in hiding. Army officials said the numbers were far lower, leading to accusations that they were concealing the true toll. If the survivors' accounts are correct, it would make Sunday the most disastrous day for the Iraqi army since several divisions collapsed in the wake of the Islamic State's capture of the northern city of Mosul amid its cross-country sweep in June. Here we go. During the Ken Burns documentary series, The Roosevelts, he mentioned that FDR, at the beginning of the war, after Pearl Harbor, prepared America for difficult times ahead. He noted that inevitably, there would be defeats, setbacks, and tragic losses. But he laid out why the fight was necessary, and why America could and would win. I'll stand and applaud our men and women in uniform as they take the fight to any foe, anywhere on earth. But I sure hope our president can and will prepare the public for the difficulties in the fight ahead. Our President, Walking Around in a Mobile Bubble of Affirmation You may recall back in 2013, when I marveled at the president insisting to the public that the Healthcare.gov web site only had minor "glitches" when people's real-life experiences pointed to much more serious problems. He repeatedly assured Americans they could keep their health-care plans when internal HHS reports predicted millions of cancellations; then the president seemed to insist he had not lied. I noted Obama "doesn't often [personally] encounter people who disagree, and doesn't appear to have much patience or interest in having his ideas challenged." As a result of that, Obama gets blindsided on a regular basis. George Will summarized the highest-profile examples . . . "He seems to think that his job as chief executive is not to be the executive but to be angry at his own administration when it doesn't perform well," said the syndicated columnist and Fox News contributor. "Fast and Furious, the IRS, Benghazi, NSA, investigation of our Mr. Rosen, there's just a list of things that surprise him." But there are plenty of other times Obama's been surprised by the result of his own policies. He seemed to think that reaching out to the Iranians would lead to a change in the regime's behavior and attitudes. Then he thought they would appreciate him not calling them out on their atrocities; he later regretted his "muted" stance during the regime's bloody crackdown in 2009.
He was surprised to learn that shovel-ready projects were not, in fact, shovel-ready.
He was surprised to learn that large-scale investment in infrastructure and clean-energy projects wouldn't create enormous numbers of new jobs.
He was surprised that his past housing policies hadn't helped struggling homeowners as he had promised.
The "recession turned out to be a lot deeper than any of us realized." Bret Stephens, writing in the Wall Street Journal this morning, notes that the problem is not that the president is ignorant; it's that so much of what he knows isn't so: Here, for instance, is Mr. Obama answering a question posed in August by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, who wanted the president's thoughts on the new global disorder. "You can't generalize across the globe," the president replied. "Because there are a bunch of places where good news keeps on coming. Asia continues to grow . . . and not only is it growing but you're starting to see democracies in places like Indonesia solidifying." "The trend lines in Latin America are good," he added. "Overall, there's still cause for optimism." Here, now, is reality: In Japan, the economy is contracting. China's real-estate market is a bubble waiting to burst. Indonesia's democracy may be solidifying, but so is Islamism and the persecution of religious minorities. Democracy has been overthrown in Thailand. The march toward freedom in Burma—supposedly one of Mr. Obama's (and Hillary Clinton's ) signature diplomatic victories—has stalled. India may do better than before under its new prime minister, Narendra Modi, but gone are the days when serious people think of India as a future superpower. The government of Pakistan is, as ever, on the verge of collapse. As for Latin America, Argentina just defaulted for the second time in 13 years. Brazil is in recession. Venezuela is a brutal dictatorship. Ecuador is well on its way to becoming one. I begin with these examples not because there aren't bright spots in Asia (South Korea is one) or Latin America (Colombia is another) but because it's so typically Obama. Warn against generalization—and then generalize. Cite an example—but one that isn't representative. Talk about a trend line—but get the direction of the trend wrong. Forgive that long excerpt, but it's a really good column. Coming to Fox News Channel, Spring 2017: Diagnosis America Here's Dr. Ben Carson to Hugh Hewitt, on whether he'll run for president 2016: "The chances are reasonably good of that happening." The appeal of Carson is obvious. If, God forbid, your child is sick, this is the first man you're running to and begging for help. But if you doubt the ability of the press to insist a Republican is an idiot in the face of remarkable career achievements, I give you pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby, running for Senate in Oregon, and getting relentlessly hostile coverage. ADDENDA: If you're in the D.C. area, I hope you'll join me Friday afternoon at the Heritage Foundation as I interview Mike Gonzalez -- a senior fellow at that think tank -- about his new book, A Race for the Future: How Conservatives Can Break the Liberal Monopoly on Hispanic Americans. Here's some of the early praise for his book: "Fascinating to the point of eye-popping. Michael Gonzalez delivers a conservative battle cry for Latinos and Hispanics to avoid those racial labels and speed their climb to the top of American life. --Juan Williams, Fox News contributor and author of Muzzled "This book is long overdue and should be required reading for every conservative running for office in America. Demographics are shifting, but principles don't have to change. We just have to adjust our tone and manner to get across. Gonzalez's analysis of the different Hispanic ethnicities is excellent and deserves further analysis from those who care about the future of the Right." --Luis G. Fortuño, former governor of Puerto Rico "Explodes the myth that demographic change dooms the prospects of the conservative movement. Gonzalez convincingly argues that the growing Hispanic population is fertile ground for conservative ideas about family, faith, tradition, work and individual responsibility, and he offers a blueprint for conservatives for expanding their base. Indeed, anyone interested in the future of America should read this book." -–Linda Chavez, syndicated columnist, president of The Becoming American Institute The event starts at 11 a.m.; RSVP here.
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