Hagan and Landrieu Are In Trouble…But Pryor's Okay?



National Review


Today on NRO

JOHN FUND: Sonia Sotomayor picks a new euphemism for the endless fixation on race. Race-Based Preferences Forever.

AMITY SHLAES: Court cases involving religion have a way of stopping big social legislation. How the ACA Could Collapse.

JONAH GOLDBERG: The president is trapped between a popular initiative and a powerful Democratic constituency. Obama's Keystone Dithering.

THE EDITORS: SCOTUS came to the right decision, the rigorous political activism of its left wing is alarming. Half a Win on Racial Discrimination.

SLIDESHOW: Military Photo Awards.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

April 23, 2014

Hagan and Landrieu Are in Trouble… But Pryor's Okay?

This morning, the New York Times drops a poll showing most southern Democratic Senators up for reelection this year in trouble, with one striking exception:

Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, a two-term incumbent who has been considered perhaps the most imperiled Democratic senator in the country, holds a 10-point lead over his Republican opponent, Representative Tom Cotton.

Kind of out of whack compared to other polling so far this year showing a neck-and-neck race. Democrats will undoubtedly begin the victory party, but we'll see if the Times' sample is just an outlier, showing them what they want to see.

Elsewhere the Times poll finds:

Senator Kay Hagan, Democrat of North Carolina, appears more endangered as she seeks a second term. She has the support of 42 percent of voters, and Thom Tillis, the Republican state House speaker and front-runner for his party's nomination, is at 40 percent.

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, is also effectively tied with his Democratic rival, Alison Lundergan Grimes, a race that may be close because Mr. McConnell, first elected to the Senate in 1984, has the approval of only 40 percent of voters, while 52 percent disapprove. But Ms. Grimes must overcome Mr. Obama's deep unpopularity in the state, where only 32 percent of voters approve of his performance.

For what it's worth, you don't see Republicans as worried about McConnell as they were late last year.

With 42 percent support, Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, has an early lead in a race that is not fully formed against a large field of Republicans. Representative Bill Cassidy, the Republican front-runner, was the choice of 18 percent, and 20 percent had no opinion. There are two other Republicans in the race, but Louisiana has no primary. So all candidates of both parties will be on the ballot in November and, absent one of them taking 50 percent, there will be a runoff in December.

So the more important number is Landrieu's 42 percent, nowhere near enough to avoid a runoff at this point and a decent opportunity for Cassidy to put together a majority in the runoff.

Progressives' Knee-Jerk Finger-Pointing on Race Spreads to the Supreme Court

Now we know: A liberal Supreme Court justice will tell another liberal Supreme Court justice to his face, with the whole country watching her read her dissent from the bench, that he doesn't "understand about the reality of race in America" if she disagrees with his decision.

It's been long lamented that there's a particular nastiness to debates about race and racism in America, but it's particularly jarring to see Sonia Sotomayor imply that six of her Supreme Court colleagues including Bill Clinton's appointee Stephen Breyer! are oblivious or in denial about such a key topic.

To bring you up to speed, the Supreme Court ruled, 6-2, that a lower court did not have the authority to nullify a 2006 referendum backed by 58 percent of voters that bars publicly funded colleges from granting "preferential treatment to any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin."

Depending upon your point of view, Sotomayor offered an impassioned dissent and/or went ballistic, accusing her colleagues of ignoring racism:

"As members of the judiciary tasked with intervening to carryout the guarantee of equal protection, we ought not sit back and wish away, rather than confront, the racial inequality that exists in our society."

Roberts responded with a short, sharp statement of his own.

"To disagree with the dissent's views on the costs and benefits of racial preferences is not to 'wish away, rather than confront' racial inequality," Roberts wrote. "People can disagree in good faith on this issue, but it similarly does more harm than good to question the openness and candor of those on either side of the debate."

…She said her colleagues ignored "the importance of diversity in institutions of higher education" and the decision "reveals how little my colleagues understand about the reality of race in America."

I actually think there once was a strong and compelling argument for affirmative action for the descendants of slaves, and may still be. A key part of Americans' ability to thrive since our founding is people's ability to build upon the financial, intellectual, and cultural capital that they inherit from their parents. Even if your ancestors came here with nothing, they had a decent opportunity to hand something down to their children be it land, money, heirlooms, or even just good values. Generation by generation, families built their wealth, or homesteads, or at least a bit of financial security. But for the ninety years or so after the Declaration of Independence, blacks couldn't inherit anything. They couldn't own much of anything. Their families could get split up and sold.

Once blacks were recognized as citizens under the law, they were still starting from effectively nothing. Because of their uniquely disadvantaged status for most of the first century of the United States not mere garden variety discrimination, but a near-absolute legal restriction on accumulating anything to leave to their children you can make a compelling argument that they need(ed) some sort of leg up, some sort of extra help.

The question is… when is that leg up no longer needed? We have an African-American president. An African-American Attorney General. We've had two African-American Secretaries of State. Starting in the 1990s, just about every kid wanted to grow up to be like Mike, millions of women of every hue thought of Oprah as a personal friend, and in the sport of the ultimate symbol of the established white privilege class, the country club, everybody wanted to be like multiethnic Tiger Woods, or at least the pre-scandal edition. Millions of white Americans sought to emulate African-American role models. Are there any ceilings left to be shattered, any barriers left to be broken? I'm sure this will be dismissed as the perspective of just another white guy, but how many barriers to success for African-Americans are still based upon racism, as opposed to other factors?

Notice where Sotomayor sees racism in today's America:

"Race matters," she wrote, to minority teenager who sees "others tense up as he passes;" to the young person addressed in a foreign language although she grew up in this country; to the young woman who is asked "No, where are you really from?"

"Race matters because of the slights, the snickers, the silent judgments that reinforce that most crippling of thoughts: 'I do not belong here,'" Sotomayor wrote.

Ah, she's referring to "microaggressions," what Dr. Derald Sue, a professor of psychology at Columbia University, characterized as an "everyday slight, putdown, indignity, or invalidation unintentionally directed toward a marginalized group."

Do we want the Supreme Court litigating "everyday slights and indignities," particularly if they're unintentional? Look, an unfortunate fact of life is that the world has jerks and clods and those who will insult you, intentionally and unintentionally. (Does the First Amendment protect the freedom to speak everyday slights, putdowns, or invalidations unintentionally directed toward a marginalized group?) Doesn't the fact that we're talking about "microaggressions" suggest that we're dealing with a comparably "micro" problem, requiring a shrinking of the government's tool to address this problem?

And as a gentle reminder of perspective… we live in a world where ethnic cleansing, religious targeting, and targeted massacres are still going on in South Sudan, Syria, and other corners of the world. In the big picture, how big a problem is it if a person gets addressed in the wrong language?

Don't Tell the Suits, This Is Why You Really Have to Come on the NR Cruise.

You've been getting the e-mails urging you to book a cabin on National Review's post-election cruise.

If I had to persuade someone that an NR cruise is worth the cost, I'd point out that it is a pretty unique opportunity to not just watch a speech by our guest speakers and editors, but actually interact with them at our dinners, cocktail hours, after-dinner cognac events, etc. You may even find yourself hanging out with the big names on your excursions.*

You will probably never get a chance to hang around, talk, and drink with members of U2. You will probably never get a chance for much more than an autograph or a high-five from your favorite professional athletes. But if you're a fan of National Review or any of our prominent guest speakers, on the cruise, you can actually have a leisurely conversation with them.

This happens to those of us among the NR crew as well. I've had "I can't believe I'm having this conversation" moments, touring the Tulum Mayan ruins with
European Parliament member Daniel Hannan in Mexico. (He doesn't know that I spent the entire bumpy ferry ride hoping desperately that I wouldn't get seasick right in front of him.) Or finding myself lunching at with James Buckley, along with James Lileks, Peter Robinson and Rob Long and the rest of the Ricochet crew in Ocho Rios, Jamaica. Or witnessing Andrew Breitbart and Bernie Goldberg nearly coming to blows at one of the Night Owl sessions. Or political scientist Daniel Mahoney asking if my brother, four years younger than me, was my son. (Grumblegrumblegrumble.) You just never know what you're going to experience, but it's going to be memorable and give you that unexpected glimpse of faces you mostly know from a television screen.

I mentioned Breitbart, and will never forget my wife and I hanging around with Andrew and his family; a sad fact of life is that you never really know when opportunities for this sort of thing will end. I moderated a panel with the late Tony Blankley. I don't know if we'll see Bernard Lewis, age 97, join us on another cruise. I understand the early NR cruises were full of folks best described as William F. Buckley groupies. Life is short, and sometimes it's worth it to splurge on an opportunity like this.

(*You may also see us drinking late at the bars, or groggily stumbling for breakfast because we were drinking late, or you may find Roman Genn urging you to have a drink with him at about 10 a.m.)


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