| Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty March 12, 2014 Let Me Summarize the NBC News Poll in One Word for Democrats: DOOM Good morning, Mr. President. Here's a bit of new polling data from NBC News: Obama's job-approval rating has dropped to a low point of 41 percent, never a good position for the party controlling the White House; By a 33 percent to 24 percent margin, Americans say their vote will be to signal opposition to the president rather than to signal support, though 41 percent say their vote will have nothing to do about Obama; | China's "ultimate stealth weapon" China has been developing a powerful financial weapon to use against the United States. Long term, it could leave millions of Americans bankrupt (and a few very rich).
We've been investigating this situation for five years. Click here to get the urgent details.
 | | | Forty-eight percent of voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate who's a solid supporter of the Obama administration, versus 26 percent who say they're more likely to vote for that candidate; And Republicans hold a one-point edge over Democrats on which party registered voters prefer to control Congress, 44 percent to 43 percent. While that's within the poll's margin of error, Republicans have traditionally fared well in elections when they've held a slight lead on this question. . . . 35 percent of Americans view Obamacare as a good idea, while 49 percent say it's a bad idea. Oh, Jim, polling adults is one thing, but maybe Obamacare will more popular among voters at the ballot box! Well, on that front . . . The GOP's Win in Florida Isn't Everything . . . But It's Something Significant Look, if you're a Republican, go ahead and do a little victory dance over the special election in Florida last night. We obviously don't get as many victories to celebrate as we would like! This is just . . . sweet: [David] Jolly's win in a Gulf Coast district just west of Tampa illustrated the political toxicity of the law known as Obamacare. Jolly favored repealing and replacing the law, which was a central focus of the campaign, while his Democratic opponent did not. The law's botched rollout has heightened Democrats' anxiety eight months before the midterm elections. The Florida result is likely to raise their concerns. With Jolly holding the seat for Republicans, Democrats must pick up 17 seats to win back the House majority in the fall, a task widely viewed as extremely difficult given historical trends, President Obama's political woes and the limited pool of competitive seats up for grabs. Jolly will have to defend his seat in the fall. As expected, the margin was close Tuesday. Jolly outpaced Democrat Alex Sink by about 3,400 votes out of 183,000. The Associated Press called the race for Jolly less than an hour after polls closed. This morning, almost every Democrat is insisting it's not a big deal, and almost every Republican is insisting it's a bellwether, a more ominous omen for the Democrats than their Perrier turning to blood and a rain of endangered frogs falling from the skies above DNC headquarters. Here's what it means: A not-so-great Republican candidate can beat a not-so-great Democratic candidate on neutral territory by emphasizing Obamacare. Yes, Alex Sink had run and won statewide and nearly won the governor's race in 2010. But she also was gaffe-prone — or as Caleb Howe summarized: 
Debbie Downer Wasserman Schultz declared, "Tonight,Republicans fell short of their normal margin in this district." Well, yes, because they were running a little-known former staffer and lobbyist who just got divorced and who's now dating a woman fourteen years younger than he is. The previous occupant of the seat, the late Bill Young, was elected in 1970 and looked like he was out of central casting for an elder statesman. The normal margin in this district? Young ran unopposed seven times. That pushes the "normal margin" pretty close to 100 percent! (In recent cycles, Young won between 57 and 75 percent.) Some prominent Democrats weren't accepting their own side's spin: "Dems should not try to spin this loss. We have to redouble our efforts for 2014. Too much at stake," declared . . .
Paul Begala. In November, there will be better Democratic candidates on the ballot. But there will also be better Republicans on the ballot. Forget the House of Representatives; not only can the GOP keep control of it in a political environment like this, they could easily gain seats. David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, declared, "If Dems couldn't win an Obama CD with a solid candidate against a flawed R, expect a rough November . . . Bottom line: #FL13 result suggests House GOP still on track for gains this November, perhaps in 5-15 seat range." We know the real fight in November is in the Senate races, and you know what's less Democrat-friendly territory than this R+1 swing district? The states of West Virginia (R+13), North Carolina (R+3), Louisiana (R+12), South Dakota (R+10), Alaska (R+12), Arkansas (R+14), and Montana (R+7). Those are all currently Democrat-held seats. And there are seven of them. If last night's result means that a halfway decent Republican candidate can win on Republican-leaning territory by hammering away at Obamacare . . . then the odds of the GOP winning the Senate look very, very good. That means that the competitive Senate races in places like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia . . . that's all gravy. Bonus seats. A cushion for the tougher set of seats up for reelection in 2016. Almost hard to believe, isn't it? Amazing what happens when Democrats get to enact the laws they want. There are also some signs that the GOP get-out-the-vote efforts are finally starting to improve. Dina Fraioli: "Jolly ran a better ground campaign. Republicans should be MORE proud of that. Obamacare hurt Sink, but didn't kill her." Rick Wilson: "Be more proud of the fantastic field work by the @DavidJollyCD13 campaign and outside groups than the magical thinking this was Obamacare. I'm a media guy, and I am in awe of the hard work people did to pull voters for Jolly. Data, targeting, ground work, org fundamentals." Here's what Stuart Rothenberg was writing back in January: It's rare in politics that anything other than a presidential contest is viewed as a "must win" — but the special election in Florida's 13th District falls into that category for Democrats. A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party's nominees in November. And that could make it more difficult for Democratic candidates, campaign committees and interest groups to raise money and energize the grass roots… Given all of the advantages that Sink has — the district, her experience and proven electoral success, her money in the bank and her united party — and the problems the GOP nominee will face, shouldn't the likely Democratic nominee be a clear favorite to win the special election, getting her party one seat closer to the majority in November? Since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House. That's a lot more fun to read when you know the outcome, isn't it? Seniors: We Detest Obamacare. Now, Get Off Our Lawn. Last night, Senator Mark Pryor, the embattled Democratic senator from Arkansas, held a fundraiser at a K Street restaurant -- which just happened to be where Lisa dePasquale was holding her book party. "The senator's interviewing for jobs on K Street for next year," somebody joked. Here's what YG Network found in a poll conducted from March 3-6 among a total sample of 461 likely voters 65 years and older in the state of Arkansas: Seniors in Arkansas detest ObamaCare. Their approval of the law stands is 24-64, with 55% strongly disapproving. And, 62% expect the law to negatively impact Medicare.
An overwhelming majority of seniors are happy with their current Medicare, Medicare Advantage and Part D plans and any hint of reductions or changes have expectation of increased costs and reduced access. Seniors are ready to blame Democrats for negative changes (56% say ObamaCare/Dems in Congress will deserve most blame for increase in MA costs, 51% say the same for increase in Part D costs). Obamacare approval among seniors stands at 43 percent in Alaska, 35 percent in Colorado, 28 percent in Louisiana, 42 percent in Michigan, 30 percent in Montana and 37 percent in North Carolina. Hey, it's not like seniors turn out in big numbers in midterm elections, right? Let's Get Ready to Rumble in Richmond over Medicaid Expansion Here in Virginia, our new governor Terry McAuliffe rejected a bipartisan passed budget and has called a special session over Obamacare and Medicaid expansion. The special session starts March 24. Here's how State senator Bryce Reeves, Republican Senate Caucus Chair, is greeting McAuliffe's moves: "It is astonishing to me that the Governor has forced this budget impasse, and is having to call a special session to force-feed the people of Virginia a federal government-based healthcare policy that is wreaking havoc with everything it touches. The Governor is rejecting a bipartisan passed budget only to dig Virginians into a bigger Obamacare hole. "Obamacare is hurting people; it is doing exactly the opposite of everything it was supposed to do. People are losing their health insurance plans, people suffering from terminal illnesses are now unable to get their treatments, premiums are going up not down and the law is already a job killer with more to come. Union friends of President Obama just this week released a report saying that Obamacare will slash wages, cut worker hours, and limit access to health insurance, yet Governor McAuliffe is trying to force it, for partisan political reasons, on The Commonwealth. "We as citizens of the state know best how to provide for our health care needs, we don't need the federal government, which can't even build a website, to try to do this for us. "The Governor is taking radical means to force this failure on the Commonwealth and its citizens. That is not only disastrous politics, but it's harmful and ruinous policy for the people of this great state." Maybe Alex Sink could give Terry McAuliffe a call? ADDENDUM: Matt Mackowiak: "When someone tells you the Florida special election doesn't matter, remind them that $12.7 million was spent on it." From Our Sponsor:
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