Is the Threat to Defund Obamacare Getting Defanged?

Morning Jolt . . . with Jim Geraghty September 20, 2013 Is the Threat to Defund Obamacare Getting Defanged? If you take this bit of reporting by Andrew Stiles… Supporters of the campaign to defund Obamacare are confident that every Senate Republican will support the continuing resolution the House plans to pass on Friday. Their immediate goal is to pressure Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) to allow an up-or-down vote on the bill — with the defunding provision intact. "The whole strategy behind this from the very beginning has been to isolate the funding of Obamacare, and get Senators on record supporting or opposing it in a bill that has teeth," says one GOP aide. "That's what we have now." Every GOP Senator has already voted, earlier this year, to repeal the unpopular health-care law, so the expectation is that none will dissent this time around, even if some Republicans aren't convinced that tying Obamacare defunding to a continuing resolution is a good idea. "It doesn't seem to make much sense to vote 'no' on a bill that contains the defund-ObamaCare provision," Senator John Cornyn (R., Texas) told the Hill. "I don't know anybody in our conference who's for ObamaCare so I think they'd vote 'yes' to get on a bill to defund it." Those backing the defund effort also believe that some vulnerable Democrats may join them, even though no Democrats backed the earlier effort to repeal the law. The most likely outcome is that every Democrat will vote against defunding, which would allow Republicans to attack them for supporting an unpopular law. . . . and this assessment from the boss on Fox News last night… During an appearance on Special Report's All-Star Panel, Lowry predicted that the House would eventually pass a "clean" debt limit raise despite drama in the Senate related to the effort to defund Obamacare. "It goes to the Senate, there'll be some theatrics, Harry Reid will strip out the defunding from the [continuing resolution], it'll go back to the House and probably end up passed in a clean version," Lowry said. . . . you end up with a scenario that isn't that bad – i.e., senators Mark Begich of Alaska,  Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mark Udall of Colorado, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina take one more vote in favor of Obamacare in the spotlight. Every Republican can say that they voted for a budget to defund Obamacare. And they avoid a government shutdown. Discussing this with Greg Corombus on the Three Martini Lunch podcast the other day, he asked me, because I'm a skeptic of the Cruz-Lee plan, how I'd recommend eliminating Obamacare. I said that because the Senate was unlikely to pass a budget eliminating funding for implementation of Obamacare, and because Obama is extremely unlikely to sign that budget into law, and that it's similarly extremely unlikely an Obamacare-erasing budget could pass by veto-proof majorities, we're still where we were last year: We need a president committed to repeal and replace, a Senate majority committed to it, and a House majority committed to it. We've only got one-third of that right now. There are a bunch of folks who believe that because Obamacare is unpopular -- and indisputably, it is deeply unpopular -- that when push comes to shove, Americans will stand with the GOP against Obama in such significant numbers, that Obama will be forced to sign into law a budget that defunds and effectively destroys his signature domestic policy. (Some presidents get a federal building named after themselves; Obama gets the entire U.S. health care system renamed after him.) I'd love to see that happen. But we make a major mistake when we confuse what we want to see happen with what is likely to happen. Could it happen? Sure. It's just not likely. Maybe the odds are good enough to try it . . . but if it doesn't turn out the way folks on the Right hope, they need a Plan B. Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wisc.): It should be repealed. Obamacare is one of the worst pieces of legislation ever passed in this nation, but as long as Democrats control Washington, they will never allow that to happen. Republicans should build on the support that House Democrats recently showed in calling for the delay of Obamacare. We should try to remove the most damaging parts and make sure that all Americans — including members of Congress and their staffs — are treated equally under the law. We should then make certain that Obamacare is the preeminent issue in the 2014 congressional elections. Just as important, those of us who oppose Obamacare must assertively acknowledge the very real problems facing our health care system and demonstrate to America that our proposed solutions are better and actually will work. No Pictures, Please; She's Just Hillary Clinton. There's a certain authoritarianism that seems to circulate in the air around certain political figures. From the Miami Herald: Hillary Clinton quietly slipped into Miami on Thursday to address a travel agents convention in a speech where the former secretary of state said little about troubles abroad or the future ambitions of the likely presidential-race frontrunner. Clinton slipped a question about what it would take for the United States to elect its first female leader, Clinton was quick with a joke. "Well, it'll take a crazy person," she said, drawing laughs from the crowd at the American Society of Travel Agents' global convention. Though ostensibly not political, Clinton's address had the makings of an introductory campaign speech. Campaigns are often highly controlled events, but the ASTA conference at Hyatt Regency Miami kicked it up a notch. At one point, a member of the audience, Andrew Rothberg, had his Galaxy Note II smartphone taken from him by security, which removed his picture of Clinton onstage and then gave his device back in front of a Miami Herald reporter in the auditorium stands. "It's crazy," Rothberg said. "That's American politics," said a docent, one of a handful of hotel security and volunteers who roamed the aisles looking for people taking pictures or making recordings. None was allowed. "I wanted to take pictures for my girls; I have four girls," Rothberg, who was writing a piece about the conference for Boca Raton-based Grey Matters Magazine, told the Miami Herald. "I think Hillary Clinton who is probably running for president in 2016 would want all the publicity she could get and I think it's kind of ironic they would take the camera away." When an organization spends a lot of money to bring in a speaker, they usually enjoy a great deal of power about how the event proceeds -- on the record, off the record, etc. I can understand their insistence that no one else record the event; they're paying for the performance, so to speak, and they tend to see the speech and the rest of the program as their material. (It's like the guys who used to sneak their camcorders into movie theaters.) Hillary Clinton's speeches, of course, earn her $200,000 each. A Little Momentum for Cuccinelli as September Progresses? Ken Cuccinelli's got some life in him yet. The Roanoke College poll has traditionally been a little better for Republicans than other some other polls in this state, but they find, "Democrat Terry McAuliffe holds a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli (35%-33%), while 22 percent of likely voters in Virginia remain undecided in the 2013 Gubernatorial election, according to The Roanoke College Poll. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis claimed 8 percent of respondents." Meanwhile, Quinnipiac found, "With 7 percent of likely voters, Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate in the too-close-to call Virginia governor's race, could hold the key to victory for Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who has 44 percent of likely voters, or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today." Their previous poll had McAuliffe up, 48 percent to 42 percent. Larry Sabato reminds us that the best performance by a third-party candidate in Virginia is the 2.2. percent Russ Potts got in 2005. Most of the last polls in that race had him at 4 percent or 5 percent. It's possible you'll have enough Democrats dissatisfied with McAuliffe and enough Republicans dissatisfied with Cuccinelli to give Sarvis more than the usual one percent or so . . . but third-party candidates usually poll better than they actually perform on Election Day. ADDENDA: I'm rather pleased with the gif in yesterday's item about Terry McAuliffe. There's something soothing about watching him talk and gesture with the bottle of Barcardi rum, over and over again, in an endless loop . . . NRO Digest — September 20, 2013 Today on National Review Online . . . ROBERT COSTA: Ted Cruz defends his effort to defund Obamacare. Ted Cruz Punches Back. JAMES C. CAPRETTA: New analysis from CBO shows competition can cut Medicare costs. Some Progress on Premium Support. DAVID VITTER: The political class shouldn't get special treatment. Washington's Obamacare Exemption. THE EDITORS: The spurious charges about Tom DeLay's fund-raising have finally been put to rest. DeLay's Vindication, Texas's Shame. WILLIAM C. LATHAM JR: When Korean War POWs talk about their captivity, they don't stress the brutality. Our Quiet POWs . SLIDESHOW: The Yom Kippur War. To read more, visit www.nationalreview.com Why not forward this to a friend? Encourage them to sign up for NR's great free newsletters here. Save 75%... Subscribe to National Review magazine today and get 75% off the newsstand price. Click here for the print edition or here for the digital. National Review also makes a great gift! Click here to send a full-year of NR Digital or here to send the print edition to family, friends, and fellow conservatives. Follow Tweet Listen Send National Review, Inc. Manage your National Review subscriptions. We respect your right to privacy. View our policy. 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