| Morning Jolt – January 31, 2013 By Jim Geraghty Can you believe January is almost over already? Here's your Thursday Morning Jolt. Enjoy! Jim Can't Wait For That Next Recovery Summer! As Scooby-Doo would say, "Ruh-roh!" U.S. economic momentum screeched to a halt in the final months of 2012, as lawmakers' struggle to reach a deal on tax increases and budget cuts likely led businesses to pare inventories and the government to cut spending. The nation's gross domestic product shrank for the first time in 3 1/2 years during the fourth quarter, declining at an annual rate of 0.1% between October and December, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was the first time the broad measure of all goods and services produced by the economy contracted since the recovery from the financial crisis began. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected 1.0% annualized growth. The Neo-NeoCon wonders why we're being told, so repeatedly and emphatically, that this economic pitfall is so completely unforeseeable: How long can the media continue to be surprised by negative reports on the economy? And why are the rest of us not surprised? Or is the media only feigning its surprise? Now, I understand that this is the first quarter since the 2008 crash that the economy hasn't grown at least a little tiny bit. And I understand that most economists had predicted at least modest growth this quarter. Thus, the "surprise" of the experts. But I still don't see why they've been so surprised. How could the economic climate be good with the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff negotiations, the debt ceiling fight, the very real problems of unemployment and the deficit and looming Obamacare and payroll tax raises for all (even if they're technically the result of the end of a temporary cut)? The proximate cause of this particular downturn is thought to be defense cuts, and some other indicators seem okay. But nothing looks what one might call good. And why, pray tell, would it? Does it all come down to reduced defense spending, as some folks on the left insist? Less spending from the Pentagon, for one. Government defense expenditures plunged by a staggering 22.2 percent between October and December. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Pentagon spent significantly less on just about everything except military pay. Had the Pentagon not cut back on spending, the economy would have grown at a weak but positive 1.27 percent pace. Was this big plunge in defense spending unusual? Yes and no. To a certain extent, it's part of a pattern: Defense spending often rises in the third quarter of a year and drops in the fourth quarter . . . Yet the ups and downs were especially sharp in 2012 — soaring 13 percent in the third quarter and dropping 22.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Part of that is due to the fact that defense spending is shrinking overall, thanks to budget pressures and the drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. If "war drawdown" is the primary reason for the negative GDP, shouldn't we expect the next few quarters (at least) to be similarly lousy? And if this is the first "post-war" economic quarter, what does it say about how war spending has driven the economy since 2001? All that military spending that liberals told us was bankrupting the country, war profiteering, etc. . . . how much has that been keeping the GDP numbers looking a little better than they otherwise would? Either way, expect there to be a lot of . . . bitterness in our political debate in the year ahead. Donald Douglas offers an assessment that I think will be shared by a lot of folks on the right, and I think the center will start to assent to this cynical assessment: The economy's shrinking and the Democrats are doing everything else besides working to fix it. That's not what we were promised during the campaign, but you already knew that. And that's Rick Santelli at the clip below, ranting away like only he knows how, apparently. As noted, I feel that populist insurrection rising, and it's not just over the libelous gun control narrative. The permanent political class is systemically worsening economic conditions to further cement its grip on power. Think about it. That Santelli reaction — "when you act like Europe, you get growth rates like Europe, and our discussions with economists sound like we're in Europe!" — can be found here. Foes of current immigration-reform proposals and current gun-control proposals have a new counter-argument: "We have 22 million unemployed or under-employed, and the economy is shrinking. Why are we discussing this when our top priority should be the economy?" Emotional Manipulation, and Inconvenient Facts, on Guns So after Obama unveiled his gun-control "executive actions" — remember, not quite "executive orders," and full of Post-It note reminder fodder such as "appoint an ATF director" — in front of a bunch of schoolchildren, the Senate began its consideration of gun-control legislation with testimony from former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. Look, anyone with a heart loathes what happened to Giffords, and takes joy in her recovery. But our sympathy for her as a victim of gun violence doesn't mean we outsource our own judgment when it comes to evaluating policies. It's very transparent to use victims to make policy arguments, then cut off policy critics by accusing them of attacking the victim. And of all places, the New York Times is pointing out the inconvenient truth — that the places in America that have the strictest gun laws often have the most gun violence : Not a single gun shop can be found in this city because they are outlawed. Handguns were banned in Chicago for decades, too, until 2010, when the United States Supreme Court ruled that was going too far, leading city leaders to settle for restrictions some describe as the closest they could get legally to a ban without a ban. Despite a continuing legal fight, Illinois remains the only state in the nation with no provision to let private citizens carry guns in public. And yet Chicago, a city with no civilian gun ranges and bans on both assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, finds itself laboring to stem a flood of gun violence that contributed to more than 500 homicides last year and at least 40 killings already in 2013, including a fatal shooting of a 15-year-old girl on Tuesday. To gun rights advocates, the city provides stark evidence that even some of the toughest restrictions fail to make places safer. "The gun laws in Chicago only restrict the law-abiding citizens and they've essentially made the citizens prey," said Richard A. Pearson, executive director of the Illinois State Rifle Association. To gun control proponents, the struggles here underscore the opposite — a need for strict, uniform national gun laws to eliminate the current patchwork of state and local rules that allow guns to flow into this city from outside. The Words 'Underage Prostitutes' in a News Bulletin Can Ruin Any Senator's Day So, I guess Senator Bob Menendez will be canceling his Miami Herald subscription, huh? Stringing up crime scene tape and using a locksmith, the FBI on Tuesday and Wednesday raided the West Palm Beach business of an eye doctor suspected of providing free trips and even underage Dominican Republic prostitutes to U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez — who has denied what he calls the "fallacious allegations." Agents hauled away boxes and bags of evidence from the medical-office complex of Dr. Salomon Melgen, a contributor to Menendez and other prominent politicians, to start hauling away potential evidence in several vans. On Wednesday, the FBI agents were joined by an inspector from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, indicating the search-and-seizure raid has ties to a possible Medicare fraud inquiry. Melgen has also been the subject of a parallel federal investigation into his relationship with Menendez, D-N.J., who was first accused of improprieties in the conservative Daily Caller website. "Dr. Melgen has been a friend and political supporter of Senator Menendez for many years," Mendendez's office said. "Senator Menendez has traveled on Dr. Melgen's plane on three occasions, all of which have been paid for and reported appropriately. Any allegations of engaging with prostitutes are manufactured by a politically-motivated right-wing blog and are false." Funny how when "the office" starts talking, "the office" can get things wrong: Menendez's office did not say whether the three trips were to the Dominican Republic or elsewhere. The statement also did not say how the trips were reported or how Menendez paid for them — with his own money or through his senatorial or campaign accounts. The Associated Press reported it found no records reporting payments to Melgen or trips aboard Melgen's plane in six years worth of office and travel-related expenses for Menendez's Senate office, or in six years worth of campaign expenses on file with the Federal Election Commission. Care to revise your statement, Senator? ADDENDUM: Andrew Malcolm: "The Washington Post says Obama's favorable ratings surge. Who knew skeet-shooting was so popular?" To read more, visit www.nationalreview.com Save 75% . . . Subscribe to National Review magazine today and get 75% off the newsstand price. Click here for print-edition information. Click here for digital-edition information. And National Review makes a great gift. Click here to send a full-year gift to NR Digital, and here to send a full-year subscription to the print edition. Conservatives – stay healthy! Get plenty of Vitamin Sea on the next National Review cruise. Visit www.nrcruise.com for complete information about our next trip. National Review, Inc. | 
Comments
Post a Comment